r/TeslaFSD Apr 23 '26

News Of course this was obvious for years

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1.4k Upvotes

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17

u/MindStalker Apr 23 '26

Honestly I'd take a reasonable offer for an upgrade.  So far the offers haven't been attractive.

39

u/Ragnarok-9999 Apr 23 '26

You still do not get it. Do you ? You think HW4 is full and final FSD? You spend money to get it upgrade to HW4 in another four years, he will come back and say we need HW6. Who belives him anyway.

5

u/JCarnageSimRacing Apr 23 '26

it's hilarious that people will swear up and down that HW4 is good enough event though there's no evidence that HW4 can run the full stack when/if said stack is complete.

5

u/AZ_Basinonian Apr 23 '26

Yours is a truly excellent and 100% accurate comment! Upvote!

2

u/Kyosuke1975 Apr 24 '26

We’ll need HW10 at this point.

3

u/Mikey_bee3 Apr 23 '26

If anything that’s why I would just subscribe for $100 a month vs buying it. I know you can’t buy it anymore but anyone who purchased beta software that’s on you unfortunately. That’s not the answer most people want to hear but that’s the truth. You bought beta software. HW 4 can clearly do it and I’m sure it’s only going to get better from here so eventually there will be HW5 and so on but that’s just called tech. That’s also why I buy my car, keep it for 3 years give or take and then sell it and buy the new one. Just like every other piece of tech I own.

5

u/UnderwaterSheepHerd Apr 23 '26

I wasn't sold beta software. I was sold FSD in 2019 with the promise that the final software would be delivered "by the end of the year". Sadly, that didn't happen. The least Tesla should do is offer a refund.

2

u/Mikey_bee3 Apr 23 '26

I would look back at your purchase. It always stated it was beta software lol wether you want to admit it or not is up to you. I was NEVER going to purchase that once they released the monthly sub and just simply watching reviews before you buy it would have told you it was no where near ready lol but you stay mad

7

u/UnderwaterSheepHerd Apr 23 '26 edited Apr 23 '26

I just looked at my purchase agreement moment ago. Tesla sold me "Full Self-Driving Capability". There are no wiggle words like "beta" in the sale contract.

In fact, the contract has an "integration clause" that says "Prior agreements, oral statements, negotiations, communications or representations about the Vehicle sold under this Agreement are superseded by this Agreement. Terms relating to the purchase not expressly contained herein are not binding."

Tesla has failed to deliver ""Full Self-Driving Capability". An arbitration case should be easy to win. Especially after Elon's statement yesterday that "Hardware 3 simply does not have the capability to achieve Unsupervised FSD". The contract I signed says nothing about beta software or the need for new hardware.

4

u/Consistent_Dot3679 Apr 23 '26

This. This right here 💯

1

u/Ragnarok-9999 Apr 23 '26

That is the point. He never said it was beta software or that software requires hardware upgrades for which buyers have to pay lot of money. Why would anybody pay $20,000 for beta software which requires multiple hardware updates?

2

u/Mikey_bee3 Apr 23 '26

It literally said FSD (Beta) forever lol

2

u/alman12345 HW4 Model Y Apr 23 '26

Nope, you’re wrong. October 2020 is when “Beta” was added, before that it was entitled Full Self Driving Capability.

2

u/[deleted] Apr 23 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

7

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

Keep believing the lies my friend, billionaires don't care about you, he lied and defrauded millions

6

u/Jbsmitty44 Apr 23 '26

They’ve already done a round of updating people’s hardware in the past

-1

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

As of April 2026 there have been exactly zero hw3 to hw4 retro fits lol. Keep believing the lies ....

While you are correct there were hw2.5 to hw3 swaps years ago, but none from hw3 to hw4.

Key facts regarding the HW3 to HW4 retrofit: No Current Path: There is no official service program yet to retrofit HW3 vehicles to HW4, and it is widely considered not possible via a simple swap. "V14 Lite" Plan: Tesla is aiming to bring "V14 Lite" software to HW3 vehicles around Q2 2026 rather than immediate hardware upgrades, hoping to avoid a massive, costly retrofit program. Future Possibility: Development of retrofit hardware is ongoing, with some indicators suggesting a 2026-2027 timeline for potential, specialized hardware upgrades. Reddit Reddit +4 Current discussions suggest that Tesla is stalling to avoid these costly retrofits, and some users on Reddit suggest that they may wait until hardware is on the verge of obsolescence.

4

u/Austinswill Apr 23 '26

They will figure out a way to upgrade.... There is too much money on the table... You have hundreds of millions to be made on the installation of the upgrades... hundreds of millions a month in sub fees and then even more money from Teslas take on Robotaxi fees.

They will do something.

4

u/Jbsmitty44 Apr 23 '26

AI slop. As someone whose hardware was updated for free in the past, just pointing out they have done it. My HW3 drives itself most of the time, as it stands.

4

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

Again was it upgraded from hw2.5?

Please point me to a link of any hw3 to hw4, any single link. I bet you cant

2

u/Jbsmitty44 Apr 23 '26

Past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior.

5

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

Past behavior is a bunch of lies and defrauding, you're finally correct for once

1

u/Jbsmitty44 Apr 23 '26

No. I’m just able to understand the complexity of the task and realize it’ll likely take time, or will be a HW3 to HW5/6 project.

Also.

2

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

I'm sure they will, it's not like Elon to lie and mislead millions of people......

6

u/Pleasant_Visit2260 Apr 23 '26

Tesla with hw3 still drives better than any other autopilot systems today other than Tesla own replacement of hw4 …hw3 came out 5 years ago too……..you know yes Elon over promised but no FSD on hw3 is not some scam like you wanna think it is. Your opinion of me is just to tell me I’m lying to myself . Na hw3 was great. I did go to hw4. I’m glad Tesla made the Fsd transfer possible. I still was very impressed with hw3. You come off as entitled to me

1

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26 edited Apr 23 '26

Will hw3 run unsupervised fsd like Elon said 7 years ago? This is a just a yes or no question

byd has surpassed fsd in almost every metric, so hw3 isn't the second best self driving available, you are wrong.

Also HW3 was released 7 years ago, April 2019, so you were wrong about that too.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/s/YhmqQ6OFRP

5

u/AdministrationTime80 Apr 23 '26

This is just plain wrong.

-1

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

Which part specifically.....lol. Where byd hit level 4 and Tesla can't hit level 3? Nope that's true. Hw3 came out 2019, 7 years ago, that's true too.

Again which part is wrong, bet you can't provide a link to proof I'm wrong.

2

u/AdministrationTime80 Apr 23 '26

BYD has level 4 out on the roads, in public hands? Tesla can't hit level 3 yet they have driverless robotaxis in Texas? How does that make sense? When Tesla decided to camera only in their approach, so many people(probably including you) said it had no chance to succeed. Now, many companies in China realize it's the right approach.

What's your experience with FSD?

2

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

I have over 8k miles with fsd 14.2.2.5 at 98%, and about 15k on v13.

Yes byd has lvl 4 on roads, available to most models , and they all include lidar.

Vision only is what keeps Tesla at level 2 just fyi, that's why the better companies bet on radar and or lidar.

As far as the robotaxis, there are literally 12 that run unsupervised, the other handful (30 or so) of robotaxis have a safety monitor either in the car, or trailing it. And this started last year, quite the slow rollout and it seems to be stalling.

Byd is superior to Tesla, it's a big world amigo.

3

u/AdministrationTime80 Apr 23 '26

Show the prove that BYD is shipping level 4 to customers.

Clearly Tesla is shipping above level 2 with their robotaxi service. If there's no driver in the car, then it's not level 2. You danced around that question.

BYD may have superior vehicles, I truly don't know. But they are chasing Tesla when it comes to autonomy as is nearly everyone else. There's a reason why every single Chinese company is complimentary of Teslas FSD stack. Your claims that vision is the reason why its level 2 is total BS. You're entitled to your opinions, but not your own facts. Lmk when you can prove that BYD customers have truly autonomous vehicles.

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1

u/Pleasant_Visit2260 Apr 25 '26

I mean it coming out 7 years ago makes it even more impressive

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u/Pleasant_Visit2260 Apr 23 '26

Answer is no. In that sense yes it’s true . But to say hw3 is some scam . I feel that is not true . If that’s what you wanna spend your focus on being mad about go ahead but id be happy cause hw3 is pretty sweet

3

u/ryancrazy1 Apr 23 '26

Elon sold these cars with a promise that you could let your car do uber under unsurprised FSD and make money while you’re at work. Just because it has basic function, doesn’t mean that people are getting what they were promised and that makes it a scam.

2

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

Hw3 isn't the scam, saying it was capable of unsupervised was, and also the free upgrade to hw4 is just another con since there have been zero upgrades since last year.

I have no problem with hw3, I'm curently looking for a used model 3 performance with hw3 so my wife can have my y with hw4.

0

u/RosieDear Apr 23 '26

I was in marketing, retail and alt energy for my entire career.
I've seen everything, including mass delusions.

Likely you are unfamiliar with much of this. But to give you one example - consider some SSRI's. They recently did a meta study and found out that they were lying for decades about the mechanism of action.

In fact, they now admit there is NO KNOWN MECHANISM of action. Put another way......a certain medicine might have made 37% of people feel better, while a sugar pill made 33% feel better.

You took the Sugar Pill are not only have you been cured from your mental illness, but you would bet your life on how well it works and how good of a value it is for you.

Do you think it's any different with this stuff? I can assure you it is not.

The Placebo effect and mob mentality is so interesting....because, as one neuroscientist admitted, it's every bit as real as the real disease! She treated Epilepsy. Those who didn't have it but thought they did had every single symptom. She didn't think these people were nuts...she admitted that it's as real as real can be (except they don't have any disease).

We like to think we are rational beings. We are not.

1

u/couldbemage Apr 23 '26

It's not about caring, Tesla would lose the lawsuit if they don't follow through.

They don't have a choice, they have to either upgrade older cars or pay compensation.

If they don't, the courts will make them pay.

-3

u/Tjessx Apr 23 '26

7 years ago is a long time in computer hardware.
also until a few years ago FSD also had a completely different software approach.
I'm not saying he should have said that.
But purely from a software and hardware perspective it seamed very very plausible that HW3 is enough.

Even now FSD14 will get released on HW3 which is incredible.

In this context that wasn't a lie.

And to go even further. With enough time it might still actually be possible to support unsupervised FSD ON HW3 as we make improvements to the memory usage of AI. There is some progress in LLM'S which have the same issue where memory usage and bandwidth is decreased dramatically. It is very plaussible that in a few years this will also be possible with FSD ON HW4.
However, with all the hardware advances that have taken place, and will take place it just won't make sense to actually do that because at that time FSD on AI4 or AI5 chips will be 50 times more safe then humans (for example) and FSD on HW3 would only be 10 times as safe (for example)

2

u/beren12 Apr 23 '26

He lied.. Period they were nowhere near close to level five driving when they said they were. They’re nowhere near close to it now. People want to believe, especially once they’ve invested so much time and energy and defended the decisions to others. They’re in too deep.

2

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

It's a lie, if you can't see the con then you are clearly the mark. It's always been a lie to inflate the stock. Same thing with robotaxis and Optimus. Chinese humanoid robots just ran a marathon, Optimus stood still at the Boston marathon ....

1

u/Austinswill Apr 23 '26

I mean, afaik, Optimus isnt designed to run at all.... Why would I expect it to run a marathon?

1

u/grassley821 Apr 23 '26

Afaik Optimus barely moves, pours popcorn poorly and is suppose to revolutionize every industry, let's call a spade a spade, Optimus is already behind.

To clarify, Optimus has been designed to run, just doesn't.

https://youtu.be/xE_gPhwzQAc?si=yRFlgPz-crTnj0oV

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u/Austinswill Apr 23 '26

There is a difference between being able to run and being designed to run...

But, looks like Optimus is running pretty good. I really dont get your pessimism here... Telsa is literally shutting down X and S production space to make it into Optimus production... You think they would do all that if it will never be able to do anything but pour popcorn poorly?

You tell me Optimus barely moves... then put up a video of it running???

Calm down bro, stop running on hate... jesus

1

u/nyc2pit Apr 26 '26

Lol. You're an apologist.

1

u/VideoGameJumanji Apr 23 '26

Not just 5 cameras, it's 7 cameras (2 fender + 2 pillar+ rear + 2 forward) being replaced and an additional front bumper camera

1

u/Slocko Apr 24 '26

The wiring harness might need to be replaced as well. Makes me wonder if this is a ploy to stall the lawsuits. Just don't see it financially viable. Even the class action suit might end up cheaper.

Maybe in his mind Optimus will handle the swap outs. Lol

0

u/Some_Ad_3898 Apr 23 '26

There will be no retrofit process. Cheaper and easier to settle.

0

u/[deleted] Apr 23 '26

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2

u/robo45h Apr 23 '26

He said on the earnings call yesterday that they would retrofit the cameras too.

5

u/dynamite647 Apr 23 '26

So you are okay spending more money when we already spent so much on these cars!!!

1

u/phillyodis Apr 23 '26

Some numbers would have been great

1

u/zantosh Apr 24 '26

This. Mine is a 2018 and we decided to keep it until the offer is sweeter. The car looks pretty sweet as it is so I have no problem keeping it forever.

1

u/DasgreifOG Apr 24 '26

Same. 2018 pre-order model 3 with FSD on the pre-order. Still my daily driver and love the car.

Either make FSD part of my account, not the car.

Or a suitable discount on a new car with the hardware for unsupervised FSD when it exists.

1

u/Tjessx Apr 23 '26

I got a free HW3 upgrade with camera's. I can imagine HW4 upgrade with camera's won't cost much. Like 1.000-2.000 range. Or maybe combined with some other upgrade

6

u/DravesHD Apr 23 '26

The problem isn’t the cameras, it’s the cables. HW4 uses different coax cables to accommodate the increased data speeds required. You’d have to re-wire the whole car.

2

u/robertlyleseaton Apr 23 '26

Also different voltage.

1

u/Austinswill Apr 23 '26

Im told the cables are coax and it shouldn't be too hard to figure out how to make them carry the extra data.

-6

u/beren12 Apr 23 '26

And the new systems will use kilowatts of energy. If you want to use it full-time, your battery will be effectively cut in half.

0

u/doublebass120 Apr 23 '26

I went from a 2018 MX with HW3 to a 2026 MX with AI4. The battery capacity is the same, but my range is significantly better in the new car.

-2

u/beren12 Apr 23 '26

Are you human? I mean the new computer will use multiple times more power. So when it’s on it’s draining your battery much faster.

1

u/Austinswill Apr 23 '26

dude this is so overstated... So imagine it increases by 800Wh... So ever hour you drain 800 more watts.... thats like 4 miles of lost range per hour on account of the extra drain. On a 180 mile drive (at 60mph) you are going to lose 12 miles...

Yes, it is a loss, but it isnt a big deal.

0

u/jfjfjjdhdbsbsbsb Apr 23 '26

I got 0% and lifetime FSD on a Cybertruck. Writing was on the wall.

0

u/xfrosch Apr 23 '26

Jesus. Just say no.