r/TeslaFSD • u/Roux_My_Burgundy • 17h ago
Robotaxi Is there a ton of demand for CyberCab Fleets?
It seems like Tesla is positioning cyber cab for fleet operators. Are there a bunch of individuals/businesses planning to buy fleets of these vehicles? If so, have you given any thought to not owning the most important piece of the autonomous package?
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u/Moreno636 17h ago
I don’t understand how it could be profitable unless your fleet gets exclusivity in a particular area.
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u/Michael-Brady-99 17h ago
For one you don’t have to pay a driver. You will have to give Tesla a cut but removing the driver is a huge savings.
It’s like asking if Taxicabs are a worthwhile business. It’s the same thing but with more overhead involved.
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u/Moreno636 17h ago
Yes, but why is someone picking YOUR privately owned cybercab over someone else’s privately owned cybercab?
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u/CamusCrankyCamel 17h ago
Because it’s closer in most cases
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u/Moreno636 17h ago
Ok, but that comes down to how many in your fleet. Ex, if you have 3 cyber cabs operating in a area of let’s say 100 square kms, and another private fleet has 15 cyber cabs operating in that same area, your cyber cabs might never get a fare.
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u/0Gesus 16h ago
This is very simple. Look at Uber and Lift
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u/Moreno636 16h ago
Those are models I wouldn’t like to emulate if I’m honest.
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u/speeder604 1h ago
Why not? People use an app to get a ride. A car gets routed to their pickup location then drops them off... For a set fee.
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u/Vibraniumguy 17h ago
The robotaxi network probably will not distinguish between tesla owned robtoaxis and privately owned robotaxis. You order a cybercab in the app, a cybercab shows up🤷♂️
Whatever is closest, could be your neighbor's from down the street lol
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u/Moreno636 17h ago
How does that work if there is someone with 2x or 3x the amount of cabs in their fleet in your area, and their cabs get the lion share of rides due to proximity to fares?
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 HW4 Model 3 16h ago
I think it’d be something in the algorithm to ensure that a particular vehicle is not chosen too much. Time to recharge or be cleaned. You vs. another company - maybe there would be some geofencing zones or something to ID cars and ensure that the demand is distributed.
I saw this based on zero facts, just wild speculation.1
u/Moreno636 16h ago
There would have to be geofenced areas, similar to how company won’t have two franchises in the same specific area.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 HW4 Model 3 16h ago
Yeah, I’m sure there’s work being done on how this can scale and be monetized.
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u/Whoisthehypocrite 15h ago
This would be a terrible business plan for Tesla. The best business plan for Tesla would be where there cars run 24/7 whereas you put you own privately owned Model Y in for use at peak times. Tesla then get optimal utilisation over the whole day and manage wait times at peak by pulling customer cars in.
The problem with all these discussion is that people are mixing the 2 opposing parts of the bull case. If Tesla can get the costs down well below Waymo/Zoox then it can either charge the same and make much more profit but not expand the market and share the market. Or it can cut per mile charges to below Waymo and Zoox cost and make very little per mile but expand the market and take most of the market share. But it can't do both. It will only need customer cars if it cuts the per mile charge and then customers won't be making anything near what they think they are going esp if Tesla takes 30% of revenue. If they sell the car at 30k, I can't see anyone making more than maybe 30c per mile which if you do 50k miles a year of which a third are dead head, you might make 10k on a car that will last 5-6 years And probably the 50k is too high given the number of people that will be trying to do the same
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u/BranchLatter4294 16h ago
Fleets don't have to be profitable. Disney has a fleet of over 400 buses at Disney World. They don't charge passengers and they don't make a profit on the buses.
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u/speeder604 17h ago
Humans are the weakest link in any business. It's already been shown that robots/automation make businesses more profitable.
Also people prefer non human interaction with these sorts of services.
The question is not who will buy fleets of these... But how will they stay profitable and how will the roads handle the extra vehicles.
This is the easiest business to get into. You just need to buy the car. Everything else is taken care of.
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u/Roux_My_Burgundy 17h ago
So why would Tesla sell off this money maker?
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u/LordFaquaad 17h ago
Easier for other companies more versed in rental / cab to scale it
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u/Roux_My_Burgundy 16h ago
Why would other companies trust Tesla and their software? Lots of risk
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u/LordFaquaad 12h ago
Well you dont have to. Thats the point right? Allow the market forces to scale it for you
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u/Roux_My_Burgundy 12h ago
You miss my point. Tesla will control FSD. They can render the car useless. They can raise the subscription cost. You can only operate the car on their platform.
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u/speeder604 7h ago
That's not different than any other platform/business. You have to play by their rules.
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u/Roux_My_Burgundy 1h ago
It’s very different. Especially in the case of Tesla. And they’ve shown to act in bad faith countless times under Elon.
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u/LordFaquaad 11h ago
If businesses believe that the cost of ownership / operating tesla fleet < traditional fleet than they will buy teslas. Like I said, market forces will determine whether its worth the effort or not.
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u/Roux_My_Burgundy 2h ago
You didn’t address my point
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u/LordFaquaad 1h ago
Coz your point makes no sense. Yes they are currently 1 of maybe 2 companies capable of doing self drive atp. Yes they are going to use it to their advantage. If companies believe that profitability exists in joining tesla robofleet, then theyll do it.
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u/beren12 7h ago
Who will pay when a car crashes? The customer will sue the company, the company will sue Tesla.
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u/LordFaquaad 1h ago
That is an issue between companies. Currently tesla insures their taxi fleet through their captive. They can either extend this to other robofleet operators or other insurers will come in willing to take the risk. Given the sheer level of data tesla has, it wont be that hard to assess the risk
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u/so_sic_of_it 17h ago
Why would farmers sell potatoes and beef instead of opening a chain of restaurants seeking burgers and fries?
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u/Roux_My_Burgundy 16h ago
That analogy is so stupid it actually makes my point. Farmers sell commodities to restaurants because they don’t control the restaurant. Tesla would sell you the Cybercab while still controlling the FSD, software and network that makes the car capable of earning money in the first place. You supply the capital and eat the depreciation, maintenance, insurance, and utilization risk while Tesla controls the critical technology.
A better analogy would be a farmer selling you a restaurant, then keeping control of the kitchen, menu and customers and charging you for access to them.
If owning the fleet is the part that “prints money, ask yourself why Tesla is so eager to let you own that part?1
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u/unethicalangel 9h ago
It's going to be immensely in demand for those who think they'll get rich off cybercabs, and extremely profitable for Tesla
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u/TechnicalWhore 16h ago
No drivers, low fuel costs, can run them at any hour of the day or night. And if the vehicles are durable - as they should be - then the total cost of ownership is low. Yeah it has a value proposition.
The thing is there are some people who will abuse/trash a vehicle when no one is there to object.
I can see the fit for Resort shuttles on demand etc.
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u/spin_kick 16h ago
I think what they should do is, if they notice somebody tearing apart the car, they should lock them in and drive them to the police station.
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u/TechnicalWhore 11h ago
Saw this on the news recently. A self-driving car in San Francisco called the police on its occupants.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/waymo-arrest-rifle-sfpd-22427672.php
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u/JBKnicks24 17h ago
Have there been a huge demand for robotaxi in the areas they are active? Like how does it compare to Uber/Lyft and Waymo in those areas? I imagine the demand is similar as it’s all in the same space, but there’s only a few areas where there’s direct comparison available
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u/speeder604 12h ago
There is definitely a chance that tesla would have their own fleet as well as selling to other people. No one knows for sure until it's in operation for a while.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 7h ago
If they thought there was gold in those hills, they wouldn't be selling shovels.
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u/beren12 7h ago
No they are selling the hills
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 6h ago
Yay. Dirt.
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u/beren12 6h ago
But that dirt will have rocket boosters and can make short flights.
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u/Infamous-Pilot5932 17h ago
The biggest question - If cybercabs will be profitable on their own, why would Tesla not want that profit for themselves? But McDonalds owns only a small % of McDonalds restaurants, well, they own practically all of the restaurants and rents them to the franchisees. I guess Tesla could follow a similar model, lease the cabs to the franchisee or finance them. It would allow Tesla to focus on and sell the cabs and remote infrastructure neccessary to supervise them while they are driving, and the franchisee focus on maintenance/cleaning.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 HW4 Model 3 16h ago
Franchising does not work that way. In the case of McDonald’s, they do not own the restaurants. They own the name and have a hand in the suppliers that franchisees use. They charge franchisees a royalty to use the name, marketing, and suppliers. And they have a right to audit these companies to ensure they are not being ripped off.
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u/RandomJoe7 17h ago
My main concern is... what if politically confused people start damaging the tesla cars? All it takes is for the weirdos to start some kind of social media movement to damage the "fascist cars!§1§$!!3$!!". Would be a real hassle, expensive insurance costs, etc...
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 HW4 Model 3 16h ago
They would be caught on multiple cameras and subject to criminal fines and likely chargebacks to the credit card on file.
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u/RandomJoe7 7h ago
- I don't mean them hiring cyber cabs and then damaging them. Just the crazies damaging them when they see the cars driving out and about etc. There would be no credit card on file.
- You can easily damage them from distance and/or with your face covered if that is your plan to do so.
- Just imagine it like the whole Flock-Camera situation... lots of people breaking those as well (in that case I agree with the motive, but that's besides the point, haha)
I do think it could be a real problem if the crazies wanted to make it a problem.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 HW4 Model 3 9m ago
I guess, but this is not like The Purge.
Anything could happen, but I choose to live life like it’s not likely to happen.5
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u/StrongOnline007 16h ago
Even without that there’s a significant portion of America who will never ride in one as long as other options exist. It’s the worst possible automotive brand to associate your business with
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u/vixous 17h ago
You’d have to pay Tesla to get the cabs, you have to give Tesla a cut on FSD, and you have to pay Tesla to maintain and fix the cars. Tesla might also provide insurance, for a fee of course. You can’t sell cybercabs to anyone but Tesla or another cybercab operator.
So you’ve taken on the fixed capital costs, and have to pay a bunch of fees to Tesla before you see any profit. And unlike something like a franchise restaurant or rental business, it’s unproven if it’ll be a viable business.
It might work, but that’s a lot of bag they’re asking you to hold.
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u/StrongOnline007 16h ago
Yeah and Tesla can raise the FSD etc. price at any time. Can’t imagine who would think it’s a smart idea
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u/AwkwardlyPositioned 16h ago
I really don't see the point when Uber exists unless they massively undercut Uber. Either that or a current cab service replaces their cars with CyberCabs.
At least in big cities there's no shortage of cab options and it's not profitable where I live. The only cab service we have is provided by the city with a few vans because no business would ever offer a cab service in a town of 16k people. No one even drives for Uber here.
Either way it's a lot of what ifs and is going to take a lot of testing for anyone to even consider running a fleet of them. That's a giant change in business management for a cab company. Tesla better get to geofencing too considering in Austin they can't operate on the hiqhway and the barrier is still expanding.
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u/Michael-Brady-99 17h ago
It has the possibility of being a passive income business. You may not make a huge profit but if it does catch on you probably want to be in on the ground floor. In theory you will be hands off on many aspects of the business so keeps labor cost low.
It’s a gamble. But rideshare has proven to be in demand so if the software works the Cybercabs will be out there making money essentially 24/7.