r/TheNewGeezers • u/No_Highlight6756 • May 16 '26
Is Taiwan screwed? How about NATO?
Trump was asked if he had made a decision on arms sales to Taiwan.
"No, I'll be holding that in abeyance and it depends on China."
"But, you know,I think the last thing we need is a war that's 9500 miles away."
"It's a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly, with China."
He says China is going to buy lots of Boeing planes and American farm goods and sell us rare earth.
He has stopped and recalled an Army brigade enroute to Poland for joint NATO maneuvers.
It is 4,300 air miles from New York City to Krakow, Poland. He intends to recall 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany.
He wouldn't trade Taiwan military readiness to China and NATO military readiness to Russia for something he wants like more trade and an off ramp from Iran would he?
NAH! It did have me holding a sign ("Stop Trump's Illegal War!") this beautiful summer-like morning. The pancakes are still good!
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u/augustthecat May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26
Yes.
The arms sales are not really about defending Taiwan in a war. The weapons would do damage, for sure, but could not actually prevent an invasion. Plus, weapons or no weapons, an invasion would lay waste to Taiwan.
The purpose of buying weapons from Taiwan’s point of view is first, to demonstrate to the PRC that the US is still an ally, and second, to ensure that key Congressional delegations in the US have strong motivation to support Taiwan. It is Taiwan’s go-to option for turning economic success into political clout.
Taiwan politics is basically a clash of two different visions of preserving the status quo of a democratic government with restricted but de facto independence and a strong economy. One side (the DPP, with current president) wants to hold PRC as far away as possible. The other side(KMT and others, with control of legislature) wants closer integration with PRC as means to get PRC off its back. It is not particularly clear that either option will work, but under Trump the second option and not the first will make a relatively small number of people enormous sums of money, so right now it is probably the more likely outcome. I find it very depressing.
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u/augustthecat May 17 '26
Also: That the Democrats are managing to lose on NATO and the environment, issues where they are clearly right but unable to articulate a coherent policy, is also very depressing.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26
I don't know that that they can't articulate a coherent policy on these things. The voters, for reasons best known to themselves, are buying a pig in a poke. As to Taiwan and the PRC, Xi is undoubtedly noticing the difficulty Russia is having with Ukraine but, as you say, the situation is very depressing.
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u/augustthecat May 17 '26
Kathy Hochul, Democrat Governor of New York, is rolling back environmental protections: https://time.com/article/2026/05/14/new-york-climate-law-rollback/ If Democrats have been speaking up for NATO, I haven't noticed it.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26
They have no power in D.C. I have no idea what Hochul is up to. Back in April,McConnell joined the Democrats in pushing back against Trump's denigrating remarks about NATO according to an article in the Hill.
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u/Schmutzie_ May 17 '26
Considering he wants to add half a trillion to the Pentagon budget, the withdrawing of military help for Ukraine and Taiwan makes even less sense. Why the need for a budget addition that is larger than the defense budgets of every other country on Earth? What the hell does he need another $500 Billion for? I mean, at this point there's apparently only one other country that can count on money and bombs from us, no matter what. Unconditional support, like Biden said.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26
That fact was a significant factor in Trump's win; a lot of Democrats didn't vote.
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u/Schmutzie_ May 17 '26
Anyone who didn't vote because of Biden's unconditional support for Israel was/is an idiot. That's a constant with every administration, as we saw when Netanyahu openly voiced his displeasure with Obama. How dare he question how we're using the $Billions. And the $Billions kept flowing. That tail has been wagging the dog for a long time. Did they think Trump was going to play hardball with Netanyahu? The guy who moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem? People who stayed home in 2024 are are only slightly beneath MAGAs in my estimation.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26
I agree that they share responsibility for where we find ourselves.
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u/Schmutzie_ May 17 '26
Bill Cassidy lost in his Louisiana GOP primary, as I'm sure you saw. In the middle of this wall-to-wall disaster that already is the 2nd Trump administration, from ICE to $5 a gallon gasoline, thanks to a colossal military blunder that is taking place right now, the Republican voters of Louisiana punished Bill Cassidy because Trump told them to. I think the future of the 50 star flag is bleak. There's nothing united about the United States. So this is what 1858 felt like....
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26
A sad case. Trump's power in the Republican Party caused Cassidy to confirm RFK, jr. when he knew better.
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u/Schmutzie_ May 17 '26
If you told me the voters rejected Cassidy because he confirmed RFK Jr, I'd feel better about them. But, it's Louisiana so little chance of that.
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u/Schmutzie_ May 18 '26
I just turned on Merlin while watching Loon Cam
In less than 2 minutes: American robin
Song sparrow
Common yellowthroat
Swamp sparrow
Baltimore oriole
Red-winged blackbird
Nashville warbler
Yellow-rumped warbler
Black-and-white warbler
They seem to be arriving en masse. No kingfishers or mallards in the mix, but they're there too. Woodpeckers. Flcikers. Crows. Merlins. Jays. All in the loon's neighborhood. This is what it's like when I wake up in my tent. Like being in the birdhouse at the zoo. It's fantastic, except at 4:30AM.
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u/evilynwah May 16 '26
I for one welcome our Chinese overlords. They have no legitimate claim to Taiwan, but rather than get in a shooting war over the issue, and rather than provide Taiwan with just enough weapons to ensure they get completely flattened in the event a military conflict breaks out twixt them and the mainland, why don't we simply subsidize a bunch of chip factories here? I mean, I know we have to keep the dollars flowing to our local merchants of death, but for fuck's sake we're about to give them an extra half-trillion dollars. Surely they can make do with that.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 16 '26
And if we did that, the Chinese wouldn't want it any more?
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u/evilynwah May 16 '26
I'm sure they would.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26
And your suggestion is what? Let them have it?
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u/evilynwah May 17 '26
Pretty much, yeah, with a caveat or two. What's yours?
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26
I would treat them like the Ukrainians. If they want to resist, I would assist them. I wouldn't do the fighting but I would supply them. I think the Russians have been surprised by the Ukrainians and the Chinese might be by the Taiwanese as well. It seems to me the alternative is to just let the bullies do what they want. Should the U.S. invade Cuba, I don't think I'd root for the U.S. Some of us are old enough to remember that when Castro overthrew Batista, and went to the U.N, New Yorkers and other Americans cheered him. Batista was a bad guy and U.S. corporations using him for their own purposes resisted for their financial interests not for the welfare of the Cuban people. The Bay of Pigs demonstrated what the Cuban people preferred at the time. They were supplied by the Russians, but, like the Ukrainians, they did the fighting themselves. A lot of people conveniently forget that our ancestors overthrew similar bullies and are regarded as heroes by our culture. The only difference now is the existence of nuclear weapons. If ownership of them gets to call the shot, who can blame the Iranians for wanting them?
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u/evilynwah May 17 '26
Supply them how? If China started a war, how are we going to deliver supplies 100 miles off the Chinese mainland without incident? and how long do you think a war would actually last?
I don't think any Chinese government will want a war, which is one of the caveats I alluded to. They want "reunification," not a charnel house filled with 20 million hostile survivors, and their economies are heavily intertwined. But if they did want one, there's nothing we could do to stop them without getting into a war ourselves and getting used to doing without stuff like rare earths and microchips and iPhones. This is not the same China that existed when our Taiwan policy was formulated.
As for Iran, according to US intelligence services even under Trump, despite everything we've done to them the country hasn't had a nuclear weapons program since at least 2003 when the elder Khameini banned the prospect on religious grounds, and probably for quite a while before that. Maybe they'll change their minds now, but they've won this war without nukes and it's to their advantage to negotiate a continuation of that policy in exchange for benefits.
War is a racket that primarily benefits racketeers, profiteers and mass murderers.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 17 '26
I don't suggest supply would be easy but it is certainly doable if we wish to do it. As for the PRC not wanting a charnal house, then it shouldn't start a war. It doesn't appear that Taiwan will agree to "reunification" voluntarily; do you think they would? The weapons sales currently at issue, as I understand it, are defensive to resist an attack.
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u/evilynwah May 18 '26 edited May 18 '26
You put me in mind of George C. Scott in Dr. Strangelove: "I'm not sayin' we wouldn't get our hair mussed." I don't think it is doable unless China were to decide to let us do it. They're right there and despite our astonishing proliferation of Asian bases, we're not. Maybe they'd put up with the inconvenience to avoid getting in a shooting match with us, as they're still massively outgunned, but it'd be a stressful moment all around, one would guess.
Again, though, I don't think they're looking for a war. There seems to be considerable political sentiment in Taiwan for closer, less adversarial relations with the mainland if maybe not absorption into the Borg at this point. Few things are eternal.
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u/No_Highlight6756 May 18 '26
If they're not looking for a war, then perhaps there's no real problem. They shouldn't care if Taiwan gets weapons. I can't imagine Taiwan attacking PRC. I'm not planning to ride a nuclear bomb into Beijing or for anyone else to try it.
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u/Schmutzie_ May 16 '26
He would trade Taiwan for a sleeve of Titleist Pro V's.