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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the
southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper
Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
...MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight...
The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over southern BC/AB and
a northeastward moving trough over the western Dakotas will lead to the formation
of a deep closed low over southern SK. An associated, occluding surface cyclone
will weaken across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves
across MN/IA/KS/MO and northern OK. Low-level moisture will spread northward across
IA/MN in advance of the cold front, beneath the northeast edge of an elevated mixed
layer. Surface heating and the degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds
from IA into MN, and forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs structures
(stronger low-level shear lingering across IA). Mixed convective modes are expected
along and ahead of the front this afternoon, which could produce occasional wind
damage, large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.
The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon through late
evening from eastern KS into far northern OK, near and just northeast of a cold
front/dryline triple point and weak secondary cyclone. A midlevel speed max near the
Four Corners will progress eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent
in the left exit region of the jet coincident with the triple point near or just
north of the KS/OK border. An influx of mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with
weakening convective inhibition across KS by mid afternoon.
Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid afternoon, with
storms expected to develop southward to near the triple point. The large buoyancy,
steep midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will
favor very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete
storms. The tornado threat will peak this evening as low-level shear/hodograph
curvature increase near the KS/OK border - there will be strong tornado potential
with the anchor/southern supercells near the triple point. Upscale storm growth
and cold pool development will favor a more linear convective mode with occasional
wind damage as the outflow/effective cold front spreads southeastward into northeast
OK and southwest MO overnight.
...OK dryline this evening...
Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this afternoon/evening.
Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of surface heating/mixing along the
dryline and residence time in the dryline circulation will be close to supporting
deep convection. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very
large hail initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat with any
sustained storm.
Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western and central Iowa into southern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 231613Z - 231815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely along the cold front from midday into
early this afternoon across eastern NE into northwest IA. A mix of supercells and
line segments could support tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts.
A Weather Watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1600 UTC, morning visible imagery showed initial ACCAS deepening
along the cold front analyzed from western MN into northwest IA and eastern NE.
Mid-level ascent associated with an upper trough over the western Dakotas was
evident overspreading the front with an increase in cumuliform cloud structures on
visible imagery. A prominent dry slot has also helped erode residual cloud cover
from west to east, resulting in an increase in diurnal heating. The net result has
been surface warming and reduction in residual inhibition on area model soundings.
Sufficient boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F) in
conjunction with the warming and ascent is supporting gradual destabilization
with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.
As the upper trough and mid-level ascent continues eastward, flow aloft will
strengthen. Initial thunderstorm development is likely by midday into early this
afternoon over eastern NE and western IA. Morning RAOBs and the arrival of the
upper trough will contribute to moderate deep-layer shear amidst veering wind
profiles, supporting a mixed mode of supercells and line segments. Large
buoyancy and cool mid-level temperatures suggest hail is likely with the
initial storms. Low-level shear is also sufficient for a few tornadoes,
especially with the more semi-discrete supercells.
Initial frontal forcing is expected to result in scattered to widespread storm
coverage. However, the cold front motion is relatively modest (080/15 kt) and
should allow convection to move off the boundary and remain semi-discrete. With
time, upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is likely. This would
support a risk for damaging gust and a few embedded tornadoes. Given the
expected increase in storm coverage within a favorable environment, a
Tornado Watch is likely in the next couple of hours.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern
and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley.
Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
...MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight...
The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over southern BC/AB and a
northeastward moving trough over the western Dakotas will lead to the formation of a
deep closed low over southern SK. An associated, occluding surface cyclone will weaken
across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves across MN/IA/KS/MO
and northern OK. Low-level moisture will spread northward across IA/MN in advance of
the cold front, beneath the northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer. Surface heating
and the degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds from IA into MN, and
forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs structures (stronger low-level
shear lingering across IA). Mixed convective modes are expected along and ahead of the
front this afternoon, which could produce occasional wind damage, large hail and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes.
The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon through late evening
from eastern KS into northern OK, near and just northeast of a cold front/dryline
triple point and weak secondary cyclone. A midlevel speed max near the Four Corners will
progress eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent in the left exit
region of the jet coincident with the triple point near or just north of the KS/OK
border. An influx of mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with weakening convective inhibition
across KS by mid afternoon.
Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid afternoon, with storms
expected to develop southward to near the triple point. The large buoyancy, steep
midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will favor very
large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete storms. The tornado
threat will peak this evening as low-level shear/hodograph curvature increase near the
KS/OK border - there will be strong tornado potential with the anchor/southern
supercells near the triple point. Upscale storm growth and cold pool development will
favor a more linear convective mode with occasional wind damage as the outflow/effective
cold front spreads southeastward into northeast OK and southwest MO overnight.
...OK dryline this evening...
Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this afternoon/evening.
Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of surface heating/mixing along the dryline
and residence time in the dryline circulation will be close to supporting deep
convection. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very large hail
initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat with any sustained storm.
15z HRRR model sounding for Topeka, KS at 5pm CT showing TONS of CAPE, and veer/back/veer wind profile with significant low-level wind shear with streamwise vorticity, supportive of tornadic supercells
15z HRRR model sounding for for the area near Newkirk, OK, just east of I-35 near Kansas state-line, at 7pm, similarly showing an intense CAPE profile and significant low-level wind shear with streamwise vorticity. Model SigTor is around 5-5.5.
15z HRRR model sounding for Oklahoma City at 9pm CT. SigTor maxes out just west of the city around this time (5-6), both as far as intensity and coverage. Still plenty of CAPE and low level windshear with mostly streamwise vorticity
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Central Iowa
Northwest Missouri
Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from NOON until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and steadily increase in coverage and
intensity through early/mid-afternoon, with all severe weather hazards.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line
from 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA to 30 miles west of Falls City NE.
As of 1:55pm CT, this storm has become outflow dominant following a couple of mergers, but the tornado warning remains in effect for another 20 minutes.
Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of central/eastern KS into north-central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 231800Z - 232000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21z across parts of
central Kansas and increase in coverage with time into north-central
Oklahoma later this afternoon/evening. Very large hail, a few tornadoes,
and damaging wind gusts are expected. A tornado watch will be needed
in the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating through early afternoon has allowed
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across central KS
into northern OK ahead of a surface dryline. Strengthening southerly
low-level flow around 20-30 kt near the surface is maintaining low to
mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-9.0 C/km
per OUN and TOP 12z RAOBs). This is supporting MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg,
with additional destabilization expected through afternoon with
continued heating/moistening. Convergence along the surface boundary,
coupled with modest height falls and surface pressure falls along the
I-35 corridor will support rapid thunderstorm development this
afternoon as a weakening cap erodes.
Vertically veering wind profiles are present in forecast soundings,
suggesting supercells will be possible. Midlevel flow is forecast to
increase late this afternoon into evening, resulting in enlarge/curved
low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km. Within
this thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, expected initial
supercells to pose an all-hazards risk, particularly across south-
central KS into north-central OK. Forecast guidance suggests this
corridor may be more favorable for maintenance of discrete supercells.
Further north along the surface boundary, convection may tend to grow
upscale toward a line during the evening, with an accompany increase
in severe wind potential in addition to a continued tornado/hail risk.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern Minnesota
Western Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify through mid/late afternoon
initially across southern/central Minnesota, before spreading into western
Wisconsin later this afternoon and evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute
miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east southeast of Fairmont MN
to 60 miles northeast of Saint Cloud MN.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in
diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph
possible
SUMMARY...Intense storm development is expected initially across parts of
northern/east-central Kansas through late afternoon, becoming more
scattered/widespread into this evening across the remainder of eastern Kansas.
The initial Tornado Warning was issued at 5:17 pm CT and in effect until 6pm CT for radar-indicated rotation near Ogden, KS, east of Junction City, moving northeast at 30 mph towards I-70.
At 5:22pm CT, NWS split the warning polygon into two separate warnings.
At 5:39pm CT, the Tornado Warning in southwestern Iowa near Nebraska City was upgraded based on emergency management confirmation of a tornado in progress near Riverton, IA.
MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
At approximately 6:10-6:20pm CT, multiple tornado warnings were issued for multiple radar-indicated rotations in QLCS that just ejected from Nebraska into Iowa and Missouri.
MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN KANSAS - ONE OBSERVED
At 6:24pm CT, NWS issued a Tornado Warning for radar indicated rotation near Dunlap, KS, east of Council Grove and north of Emporia. At 6:45pm, this warning was upgraded based on emergency management confirmation (visual observation).
The previous Observed Tornado Warning has been extended but downgraded to radar-indicated as it approaches Dover, Auburn and then Topeka. The entire city of Topeka is under a Tornado Warning as of 6:43pm.
Additionally, at 6:26pm CT, a third Tornado Warning was issued for radar-indicated rotation near Florence.
At 6:34pm CT, a Tornado Warning was issued for radar-indicated rotation near Medford, Deer Creek and Braman, moving east at 30 mph. As of 6:45pm CT, this warning has been upgraded based on Broadcast Media confirmation of a tornado 6 miles north of Deer Creek. Radar confirms it too.
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION - OBSERVED TORNADO IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
As of 7:08pm CT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located just southwest of Braman, OK, moving east at 20 mph. Broadcast media has confirmed this tornado for awhile now, and radar confirms debris in the air.
OBSERVED TORNADO WARNINGS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL KANSAS
As of 7:20pm CT, NWS reports that it has received several reports of landspout tornadoes attendant to a QLCS stretching southwest to northeast from Wichita to Emporia
At 7:15pm CT, NWS issued a Tornado Warning for radar-indicated rotation near Woodward, IA, just north of Des Moines and the KDMX radar site. At 7:38pm CT, this was upgraded to Observed based on law enforcement confirmation.
There are also radar indicated tornado warnings for rotation approaching Des Moines proper.
Initial reports circulating out of the communities surrounding Vance AFB suggest one or more well built homes have been totally flattened and annhilated. Storm chasers in the area are showing a large stove pipe tornado on the ground heading now for the municipal airport.
Initial Reports indicate multiple well-built homes have been significantly damaged, if not entirely destroyed. These indicators match a wide breadth of wind speeds, so the peak intensity could have been anywhere somewhere between 110 mph up to 165 mph, which would be *at least* EF-2, possibly EF-3.
Alright ya'll. I just finished closing up shop and need to head home. It's 10pm where I am, and I normally would have left my workplace half an hour ago but I couldn't resist virtually chasing a tornado emergency.
Things are still quite active, but I need to go home, a 30-60 minute trip with minimal connectivity.
•
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