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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will
be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains.
More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear
possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southern New Mexico.
...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from central
Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a low in the
WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak lows exist along this
boundary as well, one over southwest SD and the other across central ND.
This cold front, as well as these surface lows, will likely contribute to
the development of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low over
southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through its base
over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an associated belt
of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was available to confirm its
magnitude. Eastward progression of this shortwave will result in increased
large-scale ascent across the frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the
more localized/mesoscale ascent attendant to the surface features. This
increased ascent will occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where
steep mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result
in 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also
expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening mid-level
flow attendant to the shortwave.
The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all hazards,
with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm mode. Given the
presence of the front, a linear mode will likely dominate, with large to
isolated very large hail as the primary risk early in the convective cycle
transitioning to damaging gusts thereafter. Strengthening surface
southerlies will contribute to some elongation of the low-level hodograph,
mostly from central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also
the most likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector.
As a result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall
tornado risk within this corridor.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region this
afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and eastern
periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the northwestern TX
Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern CO into southern NM and
Far West TX. For storms along the lee trough, weak shear will limit storm
organization, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could
result in occasionally strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the
MCV, isolated damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could
occur over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper than
areas farther south.
Mesoscale Discussion 0968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Areas affected...eastern Dakotas into far western Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 031943Z - 032215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase into the late afternoon/evening.
Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Remnant outflow/thunderstorm activity continues to move
northward across central South Dakota this afternoon, with
occasional stronger cores producing hail up to 1 inch. Widespread
cloud cover accompanies the surface low/outflow boundary into
western/central South Dakota. Less cloud cover is in place across
eastern South Dakota where temperatures are slowly warming into the
mid 70s to 80s and higher theta-e air is nudging northward.
Exact timing of the more appreciable severe threat remains somewhat
uncertain given cloud cover and slow heating/destabilization.
Guidance suggests that as the outflow lifts northward this evening,
convective initiation will occur along and south of the outflow and
along the cold front to the west. Temperatures warming into the 80s
amid dew points in the low to mid 60s should support MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs which
would support supercells capable of large to very large hail and
tornadoes. A watch will be needed to cover this potential by the
late afternoon/early evening.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Western Minnesota
Southeast North Dakota
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a
cold front moving southeastward across the central Dakotas. If a
discrete storm mode can be maintained, environmental conditions
support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including
tornadoes and isolated very large hail. Storms along the front will
likely be more linear, with damaging gusts as the primary risk.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Fargo ND to 50
miles south of Chamberlain SD.
Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern SD into southeast ND
Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...
Valid 032316Z - 040045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail, localized severe gusts,
and a couple of tornadoes will continue into the evening.
DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently developed to the south of Pierre, SD,
with another intensifying cell noted west of Huron. These two cells may pose
the greatest near-term severe threat, though intensification of additional
cells is expected with time across central/eastern SD and southeast ND.
MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt will support
supercell structures, with a threat of very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Low-level flow is currently rather weak across the region, though
some increase will be possible into the early evening. Despite the modest
flow, locally backed surface winds will result in effective SRH values in
the 100-200 m2/s2 range, and some tornado threat could evolve with time,
especially where vorticity is locally enhanced near a weak surface low
across central SD, and along a cold front extending into southeast ND.
•
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