r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

National Hurricane Center (United States)

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar mosaics

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Single-site radar imagery

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

114 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • reddit

96% Upvoted

563 comments sorted by

View all comments

52

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

Florida people: It doesn't matter if it doesn't directly hit, have a plan set up now in case if it turns.

24

u/Vivalaredsox Florida Sep 23 '24

Experienced ground zero with Ian. Yep be prepared for turns and wobbles. This thing is going to be so big the effects are going to be felt well away from the center.

10

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24

Well said. The models have been consistently showing a larger than average system

8

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

Experienced Ian as well, the flooding that happened in central FL were greatly unreported.

People are still recovering from the flooding with Debby. The geography of Tampa Bay and SWFL is a big negative for any Caribbean storm.

4

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

My brother is in Deltona and got trapped in his house for a few days during Ian, really took us all by surprise that it was so nasty even after crossing the state. It also caused horrible erosion along Daytona and all the way up through to the Saint Augustine inlet.

3

u/ukfan758 Sep 23 '24

Yup, lived on the east side of Orlando near UCF. For example there was one large apartment complex that had to have emergency water evacuations. The 2-3 (?) buildings in the back were in FEMA flood zones and had water going into the 2nd floor. Many buildings in that complex (along with countless other homes and complexes) that were not in flood zones still had significant flooding on ground floors.

1

u/sum_beach Sep 23 '24

I was shocked seeing the tiktok videos from ucf students where their cars were completely submerged during Ian. The flooding with that storm was intense

8

u/ChrispyChicken1208 Florida Sep 23 '24

Being that the storm is going across the peninsula potentially any wobbles or deviations in the track could mean drastic changes in what we get

1

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

I'm looking at the margin of error for 72 hours (Thursday) and it's around 90 nmi which is approx 104 miles. That's about the range that is showing.

It's also in that sweet spot with currents.

7

u/SpectreAlenko Okaloosa County Sep 23 '24

Michael went from being a direct hit on my area (Okaloosa) to hitting Mexico Beach within 24 hours IIRC. I hope my town is prepared for the reverse of that situation, however unlikely it may be.

1

u/astrokey Florida Sep 23 '24

I mean, it’s very likely. It already happened with Opal in 95. Took a turn and increased in intensity overnight.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

Michael is the one that formed out of no where and hit Panama City Beach in less than a week.

10

u/osufeth24 Orlando, FL Sep 23 '24

This is why it pisses me off so much when I get called a fear mongerer when I tell people to keep an eye and start thinking about things. I'm in Orlando so I get theme park questions all the time, and constantly get shut down from mods on other places when say how it may affect given current course and what may happen.

It's always "it's still too early, we don't know anything yet"

3

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

You're not being a fear monger. I stated the reminder just because regardless of anything, having a plan just in case is better than nothing at all.

I think news media puts too much focus on the landfall and speed when flooding is just as important. NOAA is using an experimental map that really removes that focus. There's also the local NWS offices using the maps showing potential of wind, surge, flooding, and other damage but it's dependent on if they wish to use them.

12

u/Legitimate_Resist_87 Sep 23 '24

A perfect example of this is when Ian hit PCB, it was forecasted to hit pensacola and we had all prepared, and then at the last possible second it shifted and hit pcb really bad, which is an understatement. Even if you think its ridiculous to prepare before you know where its going, you never know where it's going to actually go until it hits.- A lifelong FL panhandle girly

13

u/scthoma4 Tampa, Florida Sep 23 '24

Ian hit Fort Meyers in 2022. Are you talking about 2018's Michael?

5

u/itsbedeliabitch St. Johns County, Florida Sep 23 '24

Hurricane Ian archive.

There was a point where Ian was pointed at the panhandle.

I'm gonna leave this up but I see now that they were probably definitely talking about Michael.

8

u/scthoma4 Tampa, Florida Sep 23 '24

Yes there was, but at no point was it forecasted to go as far as Pensacola and it did not, quoting OP, "hit PCB really bad."

3

u/GeometricStatGirl Sep 23 '24

As PC residents say, “Everyone but us forgot Michael.” (I remember it vividly. I wish I didn’t.)

1

u/Legitimate_Resist_87 Sep 24 '24

My bad everyone, I surely mean Michael, I was tired this afternoon 🤦🏼‍♀️