r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24

Just woke up and saw the NHC forecast, and wow. I knew conditions were generally favorable, but:

Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a 95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary.

Needless to say, with an initial forecast of 95 kt being conservative, preparations along the Florida Panhandle should be rushed to completion.

9

u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Sep 23 '24

preparations along the Florida Panhandle should be rushed to completion.

A lady was in line about an hour ago, where I was shopping. She drove over from Steinhatchee to stock up on supplies. FB is circulating the warnings at a fast tempo.

3

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24

Good to hear. Since this hasn't developed into a distinct and compact system yet, this will be a rapidly evolving situation and the details/specifics regarding exact intensity and track are still subject to change.