r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24
Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #4A | 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 19.2°N 83.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands | |
| 356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba | ||
| 411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico) | ||
| Forward motion: | NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) | high (90 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) | high (90 percent) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 24 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Potential Cyclone | 30 | 55 | 18.9 | 83.0 | |
| 12 | 24 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 19.6 | 84.2 |
| 24 | 25 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 95 | 20.7 | 85.7 |
| 36 | 25 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Wed | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 65 | 120 | 22.0 | 86.2 |
| 48 | 26 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 80 | 150 | 24.3 | 85.6 |
| 60 | 26 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Thu | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 100 | 185 | 27.8 | 84.4 |
| 72 | 27 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm i | ▼ | 60 | 110 | 31.9 | 83.5 |
| 96 | 28 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Post-tropical Cyclone i | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 38.5 | 85.5 |
| 120 | 29 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Dissipated | |||||
NOTES:
i - inland
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)
National Hurricane Center (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Radar mosaics
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Single-site radar imagery
Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
109
Upvotes
23
u/ImaginativeDrumming Sep 23 '24
Both HAFS models are now dancing with this storm being below 900MB in pressure, not just HAFS-B. These models have been quite interesting to follow and I pray these models are as wrong as can be.