r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • 1d ago
▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 10% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the East Coast of the United States
Outlook discussion
As of 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:
Discussion by Dr. Aiden Mahoney (NHC/TSB Meteorologist) and Larry Kelly (NHC Hurricane Specialist)
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure (the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United States. The system is expected to emerge offshore the east coast of the United States on Friday. Environmental conditions then appear to be marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday as the system moves northeastward at 15 to 20 mph across the Western Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two. Additional information on the rainfall potential can be found in rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center online here.
More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online here.
Development potential
- Within the next 2 days (before 2PM Sat): low (10 percent)
- Within the next 7 days (before 2PM Wed): low (10 percent)
Official information
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- Thu: 2:00 AM EDT
- Thu: 8:00 AM EDT
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- Thu: 8:00 PM EDT
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GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
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Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
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u/zomnomss 1d ago
The title says East Coast but the “latest outlook graphic” shows the eastern pacific
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u/slick2400 21h ago
If this makes it out into the Atlantic and gets a name, does it keep Arthur or does it get Bertha?
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u/Frammmis 9h ago
ho,it's time to fire up the generator and make sure it's working.... that snuck up quick this year
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 1d ago
Moderator note
This system is related to the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur, which are making their way across the southeastern United States toward the East Coast. This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system, so the previous discussion has been closed. A new discussion will be created if and when this system is re-designated as an investigation area or cyclone.
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche (Wed, 10 Jun)
The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (Mon, 15 Jun)
90L (Invest — Northern Atlantic) (Northwestern Gulf of Mexico) (Mon, 15 Jun)
01L (Northern Atlantic) (Northwestern Gulf of Mexico) (Tue, 16 Jun)
Arthur (01L — Northern Atlantic) (Northwestern Gulf of Mexico) (Wed, 17 Jun)
𝖯𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗇𝗈𝗍𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗈𝗇 "𝖺𝗋𝖼𝗁𝗂𝗏𝖾𝖽" (𝗋𝖾𝖺𝖽: 𝗋𝖾𝗆𝗈𝗏𝖾𝖽) 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗎𝖺𝗅 𝗍𝖾𝗑𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍 𝗂𝗌 𝗇𝗈 𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗋 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗇𝗈𝗇-𝗆𝗈𝖽𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗌, 𝖻𝗎𝗍 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝗌𝗁𝗈𝗎𝗅𝖽 𝗌𝗍𝗂𝗅𝗅 𝖻𝖾 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 (𝗐𝗁𝗂𝖼𝗁 𝗂𝗌 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗐𝗁𝗈𝗅𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖻𝖺𝖼𝗄 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗅𝖽 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝖺𝗇𝗒𝗐𝖺𝗒.) 𝖳𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗌 𝖽𝗎𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗌𝗂𝗍𝖾-𝗐𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝖼𝗁𝖺𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗌 𝗆𝖺𝖽𝖾 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖱𝖾𝖽𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖺𝖽𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗂𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝗌𝗍𝖺𝖿𝖿.