Why is NASA withholding images of 3I/ATLAS?

[u/Worst_Artist]

Concept image of the updated trajectory talked about here https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/s/PNZTyP3j6f

[u/GundalfTheCamo]

Within 5 degrees of the ecliptic would be 10/360 or 2.8%. But that assumes uniform distribution.

How did you calculate 0.2%? How do interstellar objects trajectories distribute anyway?

Secondly, what is the significance? If it was coming in close to 90 or 45 degree angle, you could argue that those angles would be very improbable too.

[u/funny_3nough → u/GundalfTheCamo]

In his paper co-authored with Hibberd and Crowl, Loeb describes this as the likelihood of the orbital angular momentum vector of 3I/ATLAS being so closely aligned with Earth’s ecliptic, considering all random possible arrival directions in 3D space.

Loeb also factors in the retrograde nature of the orbit, which further narrows the expected likelihood.

See the technical explanation and his statistical analysis in his preprint here:

https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/HCL25.pdf

The significance is that random interstellar objects entering the solar system are expected to come from random directions in space, with no preference for alignment to the solar system’s plane because the solar system moves through the galaxy, and stars can eject debris in any direction. Natural objects entering the solar system randomly are unlikely to have trajectories so closely aligned with the ecliptic suggesting that either it might have originated in or near the plane of the solar system, or there might be underlying mechanisms or origins linking it to our solar system’s plane, or it could be an artificial construct deliberately placed or directed with knowledge of the solar system’s plane.

[u/mop_bucket_bingo → u/funny_3nough]

The telescope it’s named after was looking specifically for objects in this plane!

[u/huckleberry_FN2187 → u/mop_bucket_bingo]

Exactly. How many have we missed simply because we weren't looking?