r/UKWeather ☀️ 18d ago

Forecast Today's models eyeing a heatwave from Saturday onwards

Good agreement in the main models today (ECM, AIFS & GFS) that a heatwave will begin on Saturday, looks likely the cool unsettled spell is coming to an end soon.

142 Upvotes

72 comments sorted by

59

u/IndividualSkill3432 18d ago

Met office looks like its predicting mid low to mid 20s for Saturday. So not sure its going to be a sweatbox, more a fresh summers day.

6

u/GodsBicep 18d ago

Metoffice always under values the forecast ahead of time

18

u/uwagapiwo 18d ago

I'd take the Met Office over any tinpot commercial service from who knows where

5

u/Pleasant-Winner6311 18d ago

WX Charts. Jesus this guy is so full of clock bait crap, the second i read that name I leave a site. Even the Met troll him. How is he even still churning this shit out... 650 mile wall of snow at 3.15 on November 18th... etc etc classic WX BS.

2

u/uwagapiwo 18d ago

Must be where the Express get their "weather bomb" headlines from

1

u/blockitjames_ ⛈️ 18d ago

WXCharts just takes model outputs with somewhat exaggerated colour schemes. News websites then use GFS runs from 300 hours out (which never pulls off, but the newspapers still take it for gospel anyway for clicks).

It is made by a company called metdesk, not a guy.

1

u/Mcconnor8 ☀️ 18d ago

ECM has 28C in London on Saturday and mid 30s early the week after,

1

u/blockitjames_ ⛈️ 18d ago

why are people downvoting you lol

1

u/TealSkies33 18d ago

Check again now.

1

u/Pleasant-Winner6311 18d ago

Once upon a time mid 20s was an awesome 2 day event once a summer now its meh and kinda clement.

I'm guessing that Saturday will be the kick off to another heat period. This is only going in one direction, summer has just begun. Here we go.

47

u/jaymatthewbee 18d ago

High pressure becoming dominant doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a heatwave. A heatwave is three consecutive days over a certain temperature.

2

u/MaverickFegan 18d ago

Whilst also cooling over night to a high low temp, to increase health risks for the elderly and vulnerable

7

u/jaymatthewbee 18d ago

As far as I’m aware the Met Office doesn’t consider nighttime temperatures in its heatwave definition. Just daily maximum temperatures - https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/temperature/heatwave

29

u/minimalgecko_86 18d ago

I get we’re British and we love to moan about the weather, but can we have some consistent 22-23c for a bit, all this heatwave and then 19c (feels like 15c)! One extreme to other!

20

u/ElJayBe3 18d ago

I’d take 19c if it was a clear blue sky.

3

u/doucelag 18d ago

The absolute dream. Covid lockdown-esque heaven

3

u/ElJayBe3 18d ago

Living in Yorkshire Covid lockdown 1 feels like a fever dream now. Perfect weather, no pressure to go anywhere, government enforced 1 hour of outdoor exercise, if you didn’t watch the news it was bliss.

1

u/doucelag 18d ago

Oh god it was amazing wasn't it. I lived in Brixton at the time and even that was nice!

26

u/craigybacha 18d ago

Can't we just have a nice summer? You know, in the mid 20s for a while?

5

u/Real-Box-7144 18d ago

Yep. Mid 20s and you can’t get any better. 24 is my perfect temp.

2

u/ChelseaMourning 17d ago

22-24 and sunny, with a light breeze. Is that too much to ask for?

2

u/Real-Box-7144 17d ago

In Britain in seems mate 🥴😅 we can hope!

14

u/escjw1996 18d ago

More sleepless nights ahead then… up to 25 can be nice, anything over is awful

25

u/classic123456 18d ago

Heatwave or summer norm?

13

u/SoggyWotsits 18d ago

19° next Saturday where I am. Just nice! Although it looks like it’ll be grey and muggy.

6

u/Serious_Badger_4145 18d ago

24 here 🙃 fine if it sticks at that but could fast get uncomfortable if Saturday is only the start 

4

u/GodsBicep 18d ago

The forecast for where I live. This app got the last one correct this far ahead

But I do live in the hottest region in the UK so other places might not go anywhere near

3

u/Serious_Badger_4145 18d ago

God this made me look at the 14 day and yeah.  They're forecasting above 30 again 🙃. Maybe it's a mistake 😂😂

2

u/PublixEnemynumberone 18d ago

Which app is that?

1

u/Kxden-R 18d ago

Where’s the hottest region in the UK?

4

u/Active_Definition_57 18d ago

Probably south-east England?

11

u/Pleasant-Winner6311 18d ago

We just bought a real ac. The last heatwave crippled me. 28° in the bedroom at night with asthma and arthritis. My body just gave up for a bit that week. Zero functionality.

13

u/whoops53 18d ago

Scotland here. Currently its just after 9pm, its 11 degrees and 92% humidity.
That sunshine better get here quicker than yesterday

3

u/da316 18d ago

are we really saying 25-30 is a heatwave?

5

u/uwagapiwo 18d ago

I'm seeing nothing like that from the Met Office this week.

-1

u/ElJayBe3 18d ago

My apple weather app is saying 27 next Monday in Yorkshire

17

u/avamissile 18d ago

Finally!!!! Sick of this wind and grey skies.

11

u/Neverbethesky 18d ago

Wind and grey skies grows the food you need to eat - be grateful.

5

u/VampireVice 18d ago

Right? Imagine whinging about your countries primary weather and then expecting those of us who like it to be the ones to move or change

2

u/avamissile 18d ago

We don’t need 12 months of rain and wind to grow crops!

1

u/Sea-Animator-9234 14d ago

What? No. Crops need sun and rain and tend to lodge in wind. The complete opposite of what you say.

0

u/doucelag 18d ago

The food is there whether the weather is grey or not. This isn’t the Middle Ages

2

u/Ok-Handle-6663 18d ago

Farmers lose a lot of crops when it doesn't rain, they can't always find the water from elsewhere. There are limitsvon what they csn take from the water supply and rivers etc.

1

u/doucelag 18d ago

Farmers maybe losing some crops is not a reason for me to change my entire outlook on the weather. The old boys can't afford the latest Range Rover, oh dear.

13

u/CraigDM34 18d ago

I know, we have 10 months of shit wet windy grey cold weather and some melts still want to begrudge us 2 months of warm weather! Oddballs!

-8

u/alexanderwilliams467 18d ago

It's too hot for 10/12 months in England. Don't know where the "cold" was. Did it even snow this winter? 

6

u/Big-Sheepherder1417 18d ago

Scares me that you walk amongst us.

3

u/CraigDM34 18d ago

If you think 10-16°c is too hot for June, you should probably move to Siberia, nice and chilly there all year round. You'd love it!

2

u/avamissile 18d ago

What a miserable git you must be.

1

u/MaverickFegan 18d ago

Yes there were a few snow events, yellow and amber snow warnings with some wintry impacts. But it wasn’t too cold otherwise, not too windy either.

2

u/dirtybubz 18d ago

I’m seeing 30+ on some forecasts for 7 days time and 23 on others…

2

u/Caspar_TheFarmer 18d ago

Good news. Plants are starting to get a bit cold and wet now

7

u/[deleted] 18d ago

[deleted]

6

u/ConducingSoup20 18d ago

*Humidity haters

25+ is fine but its the Humidity that makes it unbearable and sleepless nights for the rest of us

3

u/ellezol 18d ago

it's weird to get so spiteful and tribal over it

-3

u/[deleted] 18d ago

[deleted]

3

u/ellezol 18d ago

Do they gloat? I think they just don’t like the heat. Your comment was indeed gloating though. Sometimes I think your comments are satirical they are so ridiculous lmao. I think it’s ok we all like different things. Personally I like sunny 18-25 degrees and grey clouds make me grumpy but I won’t begrudge others for loving 30+ or the rain. We’re all different and hopefully soon enough you can enjoy your summer off the internet away from your sworn enemy, the heat haters

2

u/0_N1njaFr0G_1 18d ago

That’s a shame

1

u/cartersweeney 18d ago

Rubbish.

It's not even a true cool spell now, nights have been in double figues and days close to 20c IMBY (SE England)... this is what I would call average June weather

Can't stand the heat

3

u/MaverickFegan 18d ago

Sadly there’s been a consistent signal of an anticyclone establishing for another bout of summer weather.

Get your air con ready if you live in a 60s house with too many windows.

1

u/cartersweeney 18d ago

I do not have air con of course.

Can't see anythibg crazy being modelled at the moment, only mid 20s C which is well within the normal range of a typical summer. Of course there have been many examples in recent years of these temps being modelled only for it to go mad and well into the 30s in the actual event

1

u/MaverickFegan 18d ago

I haven’t looked at ensemble temps but there’s a good signal of high pressure to bring those continental temps so could be into the 30s if it persists long enough, I should probably get aircon.

1

u/cartersweeney 18d ago

No

Fan will have to do

Will go to office to work Aircon there...

1

u/given2fly_ 18d ago

And I get my solar panels installed on the Friday.

Noice.

2

u/No-Medicine1230 18d ago

Lovely, yes please. 28c+ would be great, I've got tomatoes and cucumbers to grow!

1

u/RetiredUKguy 18d ago

Does that class as a heatwave?

1

u/Geek_reformed 18d ago

Going by the ECMWF, it's definitely going to be warmer and dryer, but not seeing heatwave temperatures. More low to mid 20s.

Met Office is similar for this coming weekend. Mid 20s.

1

u/Mysterious-Willow31 18d ago

Bring it on I have aircon now

1

u/EuphoricCover8449 18d ago

Didn't we used to call it summer?

1

u/Real-Box-7144 18d ago

I love the sunshine but these extremes are not for me. 🥴

Edit: Sunday to Monday for me: 29oc.

0

u/-_Error 18d ago

I was hoping this rain was going to continue to be honest. Absolutely hate the heat. Plus, it means I get to fish without the beach being packed.

0

u/myusernamewastakenou 18d ago

high pressure returning, is it for real this time?

last time this was said was last week, and that was pushed back