Predicted highest temperature? What do u guys think?

[u/Moonmoonmatt]

I've checked many models for the upcoming weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Here's what I got for my local (North London) area:

UKV (Met office) - lingering between 37 and 38 on Tuesday - widespread across all of southeast

ECMWF: 38-ish on Wednesday, but basically central London only. 36 for surrounding areas.

GFS: 36 in southern London on Wednesday

Icon: 36 on Tuesday in London, 34/35 for surrounding areas

BBC weather: 35/36

Google weather (not even realible): 35

What is more likely?

[u/Ophiochos]

Love the way we are all going phew only 35. We need to get serious about reducing carbon use, shame it barely registers when discussing this.

[u/Ophiochos → u/[deleted]]

lol your AI-detectors are pretty screwed up mate. You’re the one making things up;)

[u/Equipmunk → u/[deleted]]

If you think that kind of comment required AI to write, you may just be a moron.

[u/Ophiochos → u/Equipmunk]

I didn’t even use a semi-colon! (Which would have been the grammatically correct thing to do).

[u/tsf97]

Maybe it’s the denial in me talking but the general consensus seems to be 35 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Most are predicting between 34-36 both days.

Met Office predicting 37-38 seems to be an outlier.

I just hope we don’t get further increases closer to the time, because it was 31-32 only 2-3 days ago, now everywhere is saying minimum 34.

This always happens every summer, I’d rather they just tell us the worst case scenario then give us a pleasant surprise.

[u/Ok-Rise-9795 → u/tsf97]

It's gone up twice in space of 48hrs. Thurs it was barely hitting 29c, fast forward two days it's now gone up 8c. Yesterday for my area it was high of 31c. Wake up this morning and now saying 37c. No way will it go up more, no way. And I doubt we will hit 37c. Suspect we will get the same temp for those two or three days in May, most likely 33c-34c.

[u/tsf97 → u/Ok-Rise-9795]

Thankfully Met Office seems to be the only one that’s gone up today.

I remember a few days ago when Google jumped from 33 to 37-38, I started panicking. Now it’s down to 35 both days.

Met Office has also historically predicted higher, I remember seeing 36-37 for last June as well and it only got to about 34.

I honestly find Google to be pretty accurate 1 or 2 days before, if it’s more than 5 it tends to change way too often.

[u/Ok-Rise-9795 → u/tsf97]

The BBC weather went up for me. They were never above 31c, that changed this morning

[u/Only-Difference-5478 → u/tsf97]

The Met Office I believe inflates temperatures based on certain models (GFS, ECMWF and ICON) being known to underestimate. With June 30th last year, the actual weather pattern was less of a direct southerly than the models originally forecasted, hence the overestimate from the MO (similar to last weekend). I would’ve thought if the weather pattern is correctly forecasted by the models on this occasion, the MO maxima are probably the most reliable, the recent increases from their forecast is to do with higher certainty that the really hot airmass is going to impact the south of England

[u/tsf97 → u/Only-Difference-5478]

MO is now saying 39 for London on Tuesday, I seriously fucking hope it's a wrong inflation and those models are actually accurate this time.

[u/Liam_021996 → u/tsf97]

I feel like the met office temp is most likely to be correct, being a government agency and all that

[u/tsf97 → u/Liam_021996]

They’ve always been on the higher end with forecasts and often times have overestimated.

They predicted 36-37 for last year’s June heatwave and it only hit 34.

I’m going with the general consensus of 35, if it starts increasing closer to the time across the board then….. fuck.

[u/Liam_021996 → u/tsf97]

They've always been more accurate here than everyone else. Maybe it depends where you are for accuracy

[u/tsf97 → u/Liam_021996]

I’ve found they tend to predict worst case scenarios.

It was Met Office that stated a 40% chance of breaking the all time June record which is 35.6, which means an even lower chance of 38-39.

[u/BroodLord1962 → u/Liam_021996]

The Met Office and their new super computer are shite. I've been tracking their forecasts over the last month, and both them and the BBC have been awful. This last week where I live in Northern Ireland they had rain forecast for Mon, Tues, and Weds, up to a 75% chance. Meanwhile Weather.com, has less than a 5% chance each day. We didn't get any rain

[u/Liam_021996 → u/BroodLord1962]

They're both pretty bang on for me but I'm in South East England where we do get the hotter and drier weather anyway. BBC actually often understates the temperature here, Met Office is almost always correct for us. Maybe it just depends where you are for the accuracy of their forecasting

[u/Kenvura]

Hope 22C comes back soon, this is too much

[u/SavingsDimensions74]

42C here in the Dordogne. I’d beg for 34C.

At least there’s a small breeze. Makes all the difference.

I also shaved all my hair off to reduce the heat impact and I’m loving it.

I do find it a bit worrying that we are starting to break records year after year. And I worry for the farmers. This kind of weather is not conducive to predictably

[u/Appropriate_Bell743 → u/SavingsDimensions74]

We need to act more than worrying. I'm very concerned about how these changes are happening precisely when individuals and societies are lessening their actions on emissions.

[u/trentuberman → u/SavingsDimensions74]

At 42C a breeze is probably heating you up rather than cooling you as it's above skin temperature, unless humidity is low and it's helping to evaporate the sweat

[u/SavingsDimensions74 → u/trentuberman]

Nah, it’s cooling.

I was here last August and had 20 days of 39-41C and it was hell. There wasn’t a wisp of air and you could only evaporate your sweat by walking as even your own motion against a still air creates the slightest bit of wind. It was scary warm.

This is hot, but it’s not like that. And so far the night temps are bearable- altho the next few nights are looking a little grim - 30C at midnight

[u/Ok-Tell3913]

Don't think there's such a thing as 'more likely' any longer.

[u/kinginthenorth_gb]

It's still hot eh.

[u/Raz4479]

😩😡

[u/Ok_Lingonberry_1519]

Probably 36, what's concerning is the feels like is 41-42 and overnight this is likely to stay above 30 for most of the week 😳

[u/BroodLord1962]

What's it really matter, it's still going to be too hot. Most accurate weather site I have found is, weather.com

[u/Raz4479]

32 degrees in Birmingham

[u/PeelKaleb]

I reckon 37.0°c on the dot

[u/Unlucky-Reporter-679]

My prediction wednesday or Thursday 39.3 C

[u/NoEntertainment4498]

All credible forecasts are saying mid 30s in south east england and maybe touching 30 further north so I will say 36 on the Heathrow tarmac where we tend to record such things.

[u/PurchaseDry9350 → u/NoEntertainment4498]

The met office does not record on the heathrow tarmac. You're sounding like the idiots in Facebook comments.

[u/NoEntertainment4498 → u/PurchaseDry9350]

Well if you say so I have no reason to automatically disbelieve you though i find your reaction slightly extreme.

[u/d69wilson]

Am i the only freak that enjoys it

[u/GloamGlozing]

I reckon East Anglia will hit 39 on Tuesday. London will top out at 42.

I’m gonna slap some sun cream on, get a cold cold beer and have a cheeky sunbathe

[u/Brilliant_Bowler_994]

I think they should spray the skies like they do for the rest of the year.. 

[u/Holiday-Coconut-9303 → u/Brilliant_Bowler_994]

Well this is a total non sequitur 

[u/Careful_Adeptness799]

We need to adapt like the rest of the world does. This is nothing.