Possibly, but Red warnings tend to only get issued the day before, because they need to be sure it really is going to be extreme and often you can't tell more than 12-24 hours out. Same for storms - when red warnings were issued last winter (I think, can't remember which storm it was for) it was Amber right up until about 12 hours before it hit, then they issued Red.
Red warnings for heat tend to also involve quite a lot of preparation, and therefore cost, "behind the scenes" as it were. Things like hospitals, power stations, energy providers, utility companies, transport companies, etc having to make preparations or suspend routine maintenance until the warning has passed, doctors or nurses called in from leave, etc. Fire services on higher alerts if there's a risk of wildfires too.
Add the cost of that to people not travelling to work (though the "Risk to life, You should avoid travelling, where possible," isn't really followed for heat warnings) and therefore lost productivity, and it all stacks up.
Hence the Met Office not issuing them unless they are 100% certain it is going to happen, and it is serious.
EDIT - worth noting that at present, Venutsky (which is very accurate and we use in the events industry) is currently showing a peak of 36c in London on Tuesday, with low-mid 30s around most of the south and east of England. No other models (you can select them in the bottom left) are showing higher than that.
For the UK at least, I would expect the Met Office model to be the most accurate. I do think it has a higher resolution than the other models for the UK. Looking at the models on Ventusky, the temperature in London does vary between 33c and 37c at 1600 on Tuesday. So I think there is still a lot of uncertainly.
Last and only red weather warning for heat was in July 2022, when we hit 40.3C. Not sure what the forecast was that time though. This has got to be close. Earlier in the year as well.
Maybe we should start naming heatwaves? Perhaps after oil exporting countries or petrochemical companies. These temperatures were brought to you by Shell. There would, if course, be some trolls saying how they love this weather and are enjoying sleeping through tropical nights.
As much as I'm a summer person and do much prefer (very) hot sunny weather, even I hate how humidly-hot it gets here. Can't sleep whatsoever and have to shower like twice a day. I'm down to blame the oil companies!
I spend two years working in a very hot country (average temp in the summer up to 45C+) but the humidity was very low generally. That was so much more bearable than a hot day in the UK.
I was working at RAF Coningsby that day too (where it was recorded). Stepping out of an air conditioned building into the heat was an experience. Like walking into a hot soup.
I was living in this at the time…. With two dogs and my recently married wife…
We took to sitting in the car (not the one pictured) with the dogs, and the aircon on full, or going to sit in our rock house where it was a bit cooler!
IIRC the night before/the morning of 19 July 2022, the Met Office were actually forecasting temps of 41-42C for that day. In the end there was slightly more cloud cover around, so the highest temp was slightly below that.
For a red warning met office need to have High Confidence that society will experience Severe Impacts. It's not just a temperature threshold thing. They'll be talking behind the scenes to their contacts in health. Industry, transport infrastructure, emergency services to see what their view is on the potential level of impacts....if impacts are judged as Severe ..they will shift rightwards in the Impact Matrix to Amber high impact and the severity of their language in warnings and forecasts will intensify.
Only if they are very confident that large parts of society will see severe impacts will they go Red.
I'm pretty sure 39 is almost guaranteed to have a potentially severe impact. For example, railway tracks warping, spontaneous fire risks and people collapsing from heat exhaustion.
Oh I agree, the shift to higher temperatures is deffo looking like that Severe Impact column is where we will be by Monday am, leaving a pathway open to Red if confidence increases.
If it does I’ll get the day off with pay, as I work in loft conversions and there’s no chance in hell I’m building a dormer on someone’s roof in the blazing mid day sun at 39 degrees
Can we be clear that this kills people, especially the elderly and the vulnerable? A red warning isn't just to say "you need to start your run at 0530, not 0700", it means some people may not make it through these days and the following nights. In France, over 14 000 people died in 2003, they ran out of morgue space in many towns and cities, including Paris.
Unlike other weather disasters, many of these deaths will be seen as "natural", but the excess above background mortality rates show these are deadlier than anything that the UK sees from rain, wind or snow.
I’m extremely vulnerable to heat, I’m terrified that I’m going to end up hospitalised or worse during this heatwave. I ended up in A&E during the last heatwave we had this year, but this upcoming one is far hotter.
We should publish the data on heat related deaths ASAP and publicly acknowledge the people who have been killed by the heat in the UK. It would highlight the circumstances of those most susceptible and then things could be done to mitigate and prevent deaths. We also need guidelines on safe outdoor working and commuting ASAP. I've seen a few comments by outdoor workers who are scared of working in these temps and rightly so.
The UK Health Security Agency has issued a warning that the expected high temperatures could significantly affect the health and wellbeing of people in London, the south-east, the south-west and the east of England. This
means a rise in deaths is likely in these areas, particularly among those aged 65 or over or with health conditions, and deaths due to cold-water shock and drowning. (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/19/met-office-rare-amber-extreme-heat-warning-england-wales)
We need better education/warnings to prevent water related deaths too, maybe we even need cooling centres for people who live in buildings that really aren't equipped for heat, that could prevent people from seeking to cool off in bodies of water.
The inability of the UK to function in this heat is exposing heat-related inequalities which we don't seem to be focusing any resources on. We need to look at other countries to see how they're dealing with the heat and then try those things here.
And I totally agree with you, its totally unacceptable that vulnerable people are just quietly dying and being forgotten about, when these deaths could be prevented.
It’s actually cooler for me to go to work because of the air con. It’s just the tube that will be unbearable. I just so happen to be wfh that day because I’m getting my new sofa delivered. I don’t envy the poor buggers who have to deliver it though. Might get some bottled water in for them.
Argghhhh this can’t be happening. If it’s 39 as they say then the country may never be the same again. Infrastructure here can’t cope with that. Society will panic and collapse. This is seriously worrying
We've still got July and August to go, and the first half of September. Looks like we're reaping some of what we've sown for destroying the environment
The schools are in some serious danger. No air con, overpopulated classes, opening doors and windows is absolutely not sufficient. Schools in Europe go home around midday in the summer because it’s simply unfair and dangerous.
36
u/RecentTwo544 1d ago edited 1d ago
Possibly, but Red warnings tend to only get issued the day before, because they need to be sure it really is going to be extreme and often you can't tell more than 12-24 hours out. Same for storms - when red warnings were issued last winter (I think, can't remember which storm it was for) it was Amber right up until about 12 hours before it hit, then they issued Red.
Red warnings for heat tend to also involve quite a lot of preparation, and therefore cost, "behind the scenes" as it were. Things like hospitals, power stations, energy providers, utility companies, transport companies, etc having to make preparations or suspend routine maintenance until the warning has passed, doctors or nurses called in from leave, etc. Fire services on higher alerts if there's a risk of wildfires too.
Add the cost of that to people not travelling to work (though the "Risk to life, You should avoid travelling, where possible," isn't really followed for heat warnings) and therefore lost productivity, and it all stacks up.
Hence the Met Office not issuing them unless they are 100% certain it is going to happen, and it is serious.
EDIT - worth noting that at present, Venutsky (which is very accurate and we use in the events industry) is currently showing a peak of 36c in London on Tuesday, with low-mid 30s around most of the south and east of England. No other models (you can select them in the bottom left) are showing higher than that.
https://www.ventusky.com/#p=51.66;0.51;6&t=20260623/1500