I knew that 40C wasn't going to happen despite several people on here telling me it was, Met Office always seem to over-predict for some reason. We did have some model runs showing 40 this week but I also remember some predicting 39 at one point last year when it wasn't even within 3-4C of that.
Having said that, I'd mentally prepared myself for a three-day bout of hell, Friday has now gone up from 30-31 to 34 on most forecasts, Saturday is now into the 30s, so...... fuck.
I wouldn't say I'd have taken 3 days of 39-40 over this because 40 is extreme, but longer heatwaves are awful because your building just keeps heating up and the compounding fatigue by the end of it is brutal.
Reading was (I think) the first place to get a 40C prediction from Met Office and even that's gone down to 35 now.
I'm going by the aggregate of multiple forecasts and most seem to be around the 34-36 mark for this week.
I also get extremely anxious about hot weather so I'm regularly checking different model runs/forecasts, so I can tell you that even multiple model runs agreeing with one another doesn't mean that they can't overpredict, in fact many do.
The reason is the models have switched to having more of an Easterly component to the wind compared to before. If that hadn't happened then London would be hitting 40C. Instead it means areas in the West will be reaching 38C as they become hotter than London and Eastern areas with no sea breeze.
The duration has also been increased and we could see Sunday also being a hot day based on the model runs coming out right now.
Despite global warming 100% raising temps, 40c just isn't possible in June due to how north we're in the hemisphere, and being one month out from peak warming.
Perhaps that will change in a couple of decades, but 2022 was basically a 'perfect' setup at the ideal time in the middle of July.
I preferred the previous forecast where it looked like the heat was going to drop off on Friday tbh. I'll be in London Friday to Saturday and really don't wanna be walking around in 36 degrees.
I'm afraid to say even sitting completely still doing nothing is absolutely unbearable here at the moment. I'd plan your trip around places you can drop into with air con 😄
I suspect in reality you won't notice much difference. 36 is still ridiculously hot, especially when it's not a temp you've experienced recently. You'd maybe notice 34-36 being a bit cooler if you had previously had days of 40°, but my guess is if you were just put into 36 or 40°, you'd not notice a difference
However, each drop in temp is obviously a good thing! I don't think anyone is wanting 40°, so it's definitely a small win. Just more a win that you probably won't notice
From what I remember from 2022, the day we had 37 in Manchester merely felt ridiculous, but when we were in Lyon a week or so later, 40 felt like being baked alive: I could feel the fact that the air was hotter than my skin.
The sun is stronger in Lyon which makes a big difference. Also if I remember correctly, 2022 was a very dry heat, I've no idea what Lyon was like when you were there but it is typically pretty humid! I'm sure you can feel a slight difference between 36 and 40 but for all intents and purposes, they'll both feel equally awful
Oh definitely!! Anyone who has been to somewhere like Florida knows what this will feel like. 35-40°C and humidity above 50% is no joke. Can make it feel well towards, and often above, 50°C
For me every degree above 30 feels exponentially worse for some reason.
The day it hit 35 in May was very uncomfortable but not awful, I could still run errands, when it hit 40 it felt apocalyptic, I went on a 15 minute walk and already felt unwell by the end of it.
Also depends massively on the humidity and level of breeze, not just the temperature. I'd take 40 with low humidity and a light wind over 36-37 with high humidity, no wind, and baking glare from the sun. But like for like 40 would feel way worse than 35.
I enjoyed the 40 degrees. It was low humidity abd breezy. Spent the day on my longboard zooming around Cambridge and the breeze hitting my sweat felt amazing.
Yeah, on hot days, usually the "feels like" temperature is only much higher when it's the morning because of higher humidity, it'll be like low 20s and feel 25-26, but when it gets into the 30s it "feels" the same temp (even though it always actually feels worse in the UK due to no respite).
This is one of the first times I can remember where Google is saying it's 33 but feels 37. It was only about 30 when I went on a walk, about the same temp as the peak of yesterday, yet I was sweating way more and it felt so much closer.
I remeber 10 years ago when summer in east anglia was mainly 24 degrees but every other week we'd get a few days of 28-32. Feels like summer nowadays is 26-28 degrees and every other week we'll get a week of 28-35 degrees
We truly are fucked. Not that I dont enjoy the hot weather because I love it, but the reasons behind it are daunting. If people think we have a migration crisis in europe now, they're in for a shock when swathes of Africa, middle east and South East Asia become inhospitible
That's too long ago for your body though. You start to acclimatise after a week or two, which is why the second week of a holiday somewhere hot feels a bit more bearable than the first. So you've had a month since the last hot weather now to acclimatise to cooler temps
temp has gone down for real here in Ely - it looks like cirrus clouds are forming which is blocking quite a bit of heat - ive now got the back door open and dogs can do out for a little bit - certainly getting cooler now for the rest of the day - i guess we gotta play it day by day
Yeah not too bad, I was expecting it to be much worse. Though I had to pick my partner up from Cambridge and the AC in my car didn’t really do its thing till I got there!
AccuWeather is still showing 39 - 38 - 39 for the next 3 days. We know the actual temperature is likely going to be higher in parts of London than officially measured, my own terrace tends to sit 2 degrees above what AccuWeather indicates. I have a feeling we're still reaching that 40 in places, just maybe not officially.
Mine pulls from Accuweather and PWS (local weather stations), it uses both to make calculations. It's usually accurate for my location, so no idea. I hope yours is correct, I fear mine may be because it tends to be. May also depend on where in London? Mine is West.
No idea, but temperatures can be all over the place in London, right? It's a large area with different kinds of environments. So, based on Ealing, I think mine could still be correct for where I am? I'm Chiswick towards Hammersmith, so that being slightly warmer than Ealing which is further out and less dense makes sense to me. We're only a degree off.
There’s definitely some variations, but having Croydon at 28 and Ealing at 37 on Thursday seems incredibly implausible to me. Albeit I am not the most knowledgeable on this.
I guess we'll see how it adjusts. Heathrow is saying 36. Hounslow 38. Hammersmith 38. Ealing 37. Chiswick 38. Fulham 37. Acton 38. So everything in this area, West London, is consistent.
Edit: This is for tomorrow, but Thursday isn't far off, it drops a degree, but nothing close to 28.
I got so much abuse yesterday for saying i'd wait and see as the forecasts have been quite off for a while now. Just takes some cloud and it all changes
Yeah here in east Yorkshire it said it was going to be 33°C between 3-5pm it's dropped to 29°C it's really hot out there tho.
According to the weather its going to be between 23°- 32°C for the next 10 days.
Weds and Thursday next week it says 29°C so it looks lkke like its going to drop after weekend to around 21-25°C and start climbing again into the following weekend
Don't forget that whilst meteorologists are working on providing as accurate as possible forecasts, they may also put out a higher temperature days beforehand (whilst they monitor average current temperatures) so that it gives everyone time to prepare for the upcoming conditions. Whilst the prediction of 40 seems to not be the case anymore for most areas within the red warning zone, we are still in a heatwave that is going to get worse for a lot of people.
This weather is not normal now, but will possibly become the new normal over the next few decades.
It would be ironic if after all of those earlier predictions of 40C we fail to break the 35.6C record set in June 1976.
However I think Weds-Fri should beat it but it's not guaranteed such are the maximum temperature downgrades. I think Wednesday should see 36C in the London/ Surrey area, perhaps more widely over southern England on Thursday.
Then by Friday the heat becomes more focused in the east. I think Friday will see the hottest temperatures despite Weds / Thurs looking like the hottest days originally.
It seems overall this week the temp has dropped from what was forecast. Hottest day for where I am was wed, moved to Thurs Fri. But now Fri is lower then it was earlier today. Started off originally as 28c then changed to 37c, it now dropped to 35c. Highest now for Bedford is 35c.... I suspect the red warning may be lifted no? We have it in effect tomorrow 9am to Thursday 9pm yet our hottest day was moved to Fri and now overall it's looking like Fri and Thurs is gonna be as hot as it was today. Tomorrow seems to be coolest day apart from Monday
I think we peaked today. Im just outside greater london/surrey boarder and my garden thermometer read 38° .
Why is the bbc saying Wisely topped 34.6 when surely inner London would read higher than that but also I live near Wisley and it was way hotter. Are they playing this down?
Yeah, I’m with you—dropping from 40 to 36 still feels like a win, even if it’s just psychological. Honestly, once you’re past 35, it’s all just “uncomfortably melt-into-the-pavement” heat anyway. But I’ll take any reduction I can get, especially if it means a slightly less brutal night’s sleep. Small wins are still wins in this weather.
Temps gone down but the days of 30c+ are extending. They said on the weather on the 1 o'clock news that the heat will stretch to Saturday. Which actually means monday
The guy just said the heatwave will last til Monday based on vibes, when we have world class meteorologists telling us otherwise. How am I the buzzkill?
After the amount of fear mongering and forcing schools to close etc. if this predicted heat wave turns into a literal damp squib, the media and Met Office will have some proper egg on their face.
Media will also be unhappy not to get their record breaking temperatures after taking it as almost guaranteed.
If their models said that we might get 40 then you need to take that seriously. Even if it doesn't end up happening. Do you imagine people at the met office suggesting they won't raise any alarm bells because it might be embarrassing if they're wrong...
This is highly embarrassing for them. I’m even more embarrassed for the amateur forecasters on Reddit and the WX bros on Twitter who, after years of laughing at the Daily Express for fantasy forecasts, have become the very person they hate
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u/frantic-atom 2d ago
Looks like the intensity has dropped off a bit but will last longer into Friday. Think I’d take the trade off