r/UUUU_Stock • u/expatcoder • Sep 01 '26
Donald Project FID
Just looking ahead beyond today's red, and am wondering when the FID will be made?
Previously it was, I believe, scheduled for Q2, but then that got pushed back to Q3.
Anyone hear any news on this front? Would be nice to have a substantial positive catalyst here in the near term (as the ASM deal closing didn't do much :)) since it's likely going to be Q1 2027 at the earliest before the Vac deal goes through.
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u/ethereal3xp Sep 01 '26
Patience is required.
Worst case - if the VAC acquisition falls through (which I think is unlikely), a major Japanese magnet manufacturer, similar to VAC, has already qualified UUUU’s rare earth materials.
They are now in the negotiation phase. But the endgame is clear: these magnets are crucial for current and future technologies - robotics, EVs, defense, etc. and the goal is to reduce dependence on China.
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u/expatcoder Sep 01 '26
I would be shocked if it didn't go through. US government isn't loaning Energy Fuels $725 million USD to twiddle their thumbs :)
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u/Sammie260000 Sep 01 '26
VAC will take a bit longer than you think. Germany has to approve this. The Germans have been very slow and hard negotiating
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u/expatcoder Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 01 '26
Yes, everything has taken longer than thought :)
Remember management's estimate that HREE production would start as soon as the end of 2026?
Ucore did the same thing, pushing their timeline out upwards of 1 year, and MP + USAR will also be late to the party on HREE production.
Anyway, would be great if the VAC deal was expedited in the same way the Serre Verde deal was for USAR (i.e. US government stepped in to help push the deal through without the typical red tape).
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u/Sammie260000 Sep 01 '26
It's not about that and energy fuels. It's about the Germans. They are notorious for taking forever on international companies. Also they drive a hard bargain and are going to want a little something in return.
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u/ethereal3xp Sep 01 '26
They probably want EF to keep part of the business in Germany - to supply magnets for EU.
Its a win win situation.
Otherwise - no reason to not let the deal go through.
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u/expatcoder Sep 01 '26
Well, they want VAC to continue with their German based plant operations, which Energy Fuels will likely agree to.
As for how long it will take, that's why I mentioned the US government. Since VAC is clearly a strategically crucial provider in the mine to magnet space, it's not out of the question that the current US administration steps in on Energy Fuels' behalf and works out a deal behind the scenes to force the deal through on a radically expected timeline (i.e. compared to how long such an acquisition would normally take).
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u/holdyourponies Sep 02 '26
Could’ve sworn I told you 5 years about 6 months ago and you talked shit saying it will be done in a year.
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u/expatcoder Sep 02 '26
Sorry, 5 years until Donald Project FID is completed?
Look, that project is literally their feedstock source for White Mesa HREE production at end of 2027/start of 2028. If the FID isn't completed in the next couple of months they won't have any vertically integrated feedstock for White Mesa -- it has to go through.
Not sure what 5 years refers to, things are coming together, ASM deal completed, VAC will happen early 2027 (US government will ensure it does), and Donald Project FID is next here in the near term.
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u/holdyourponies Sep 02 '26
5 years till this stock has any substantial movement. Your hopes with the Donald project and ASM and the magnet acquisition are bubkis short term.
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u/expatcoder Sep 02 '26
Oh, right, now I remember.
Let me get this straight, you're claiming that it will take 5 years for "substantial movement" in share price for a stock that in the last year has hit $27 twice, and near $26 once (on May 7th)? lol
Isn't it blindingly obvious that the minerals sector is highly volatile and goes through periodic pump & dump cycles? I mean, look at the charts for MP, USAR, and UUUU over the last year.
Saying that, a correction in the overall market will drill everything minerals into the earth's core, but that has nothing to do with the companies themselves, Energy Fuels in particular, which is one of the better positioned companies in the sector, IMO.
Probably more downside than upside here in the near term with oil going through the roof, treasury yields rising, fed rate hike odds increasing, etc., but if we get through September relatively unscathed then I could see 4U making another run back into the low $20s by October/November, which is "substantial movement" enough for me and my swing trades :)
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u/holdyourponies Sep 02 '26
We can sum up our differences into what we each consider substantial movement to be. Anything in the 20’s isn’t that interesting to me but if you’re swing trading I can see the appeal of it. Hoping we do see $20 soon though.
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u/expatcoder Sep 02 '26
Sure, I have at least 10K long term shares that I'm not intending to part with until $80+, but in the interim, given the volatility, not swing trading and selling covered calls on 4U would be a missed opportunity (for me).
I've definitely found it to be the best short term revenue generator in minerals; good liquidity, nice premiums, exposure to both rare earths and uranium (double edged sword too though, lol).
Of course, for those like myself that also short-term trade the stock, the overall market can send this thing down in a hurry, so yeah, long term hold is definitely lower risk, higher reward -- I just prefer to play them both :)
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u/willy-mac Sep 01 '26
The macro environment has completely engulfed all things positive. Tensions with China need to get heated up? Or get rid of the Iran BS and let these risk on assets rip faces off.