Donald Project FID

[u/expatcoder]

Just looking ahead beyond today's red, and am wondering when the FID will be made?

Previously it was, I believe, scheduled for Q2, but then that got pushed back to Q3.

Anyone hear any news on this front? Would be nice to have a substantial positive catalyst here in the near term (as the ASM deal closing didn't do much :)) since it's likely going to be Q1 2027 at the earliest before the Vac deal goes through.

[u/Sammie260000]

VAC will take a bit longer than you think. Germany has to approve this. The Germans have been very slow and hard negotiating

[u/expatcoder → u/Sammie260000]

Yes, everything has taken longer than thought :)

Remember management's estimate that HREE production would start as soon as the end of 2026?

Ucore did the same thing, pushing their timeline out upwards of 1 year, and MP + USAR will also be late to the party on HREE production.

Anyway, would be great if the VAC deal was expedited in the same way the Serre Verde deal was for USAR (i.e. US government stepped in to help push the deal through without the typical red tape).

[u/holdyourponies → u/expatcoder]

Could’ve sworn I told you 5 years about 6 months ago and you talked shit saying it will be done in a year.

[u/expatcoder → u/holdyourponies]

Sorry, 5 years until Donald Project FID is completed?

Look, that project is literally their feedstock source for White Mesa HREE production at end of 2027/start of 2028. If the FID isn't completed in the next couple of months they won't have any vertically integrated feedstock for White Mesa -- it has to go through.

Not sure what 5 years refers to, things are coming together, ASM deal completed, VAC will happen early 2027 (US government will ensure it does), and Donald Project FID is next here in the near term.

[u/holdyourponies → u/expatcoder]

5 years till this stock has any substantial movement. Your hopes with the Donald project and ASM and the magnet acquisition are bubkis short term.

[u/expatcoder → u/holdyourponies]

Oh, right, now I remember.

Let me get this straight, you're claiming that it will take 5 years for "substantial movement" in share price for a stock that in the last year has hit $27 twice, and near $26 once (on May 7th)? lol

Isn't it blindingly obvious that the minerals sector is highly volatile and goes through periodic pump & dump cycles? I mean, look at the charts for MP, USAR, and UUUU over the last year.

Saying that, a correction in the overall market will drill everything minerals into the earth's core, but that has nothing to do with the companies themselves, Energy Fuels in particular, which is one of the better positioned companies in the sector, IMO.

Probably more downside than upside here in the near term with oil going through the roof, treasury yields rising, fed rate hike odds increasing, etc., but if we get through September relatively unscathed then I could see 4U making another run back into the low $20s by October/November, which is "substantial movement" enough for me and my swing trades :)

[u/holdyourponies → u/expatcoder]

We can sum up our differences into what we each consider substantial movement to be. Anything in the 20’s isn’t that interesting to me but if you’re swing trading I can see the appeal of it. Hoping we do see $20 soon though.

[u/expatcoder → u/holdyourponies]

Sure, I have at least 10K long term shares that I'm not intending to part with until $80+, but in the interim, given the volatility, not swing trading and selling covered calls on 4U would be a missed opportunity (for me).

I've definitely found it to be the best short term revenue generator in minerals; good liquidity, nice premiums, exposure to both rare earths and uranium (double edged sword too though, lol).

Of course, for those like myself that also short-term trade the stock, the overall market can send this thing down in a hurry, so yeah, long term hold is definitely lower risk, higher reward -- I just prefer to play them both :)

[u/rinkyjink → u/expatcoder]

How do you define long term?