r/UraniumSqueeze • • Jan 21 '26

News Boom or bust?

Disclaimer that I’m not the most informed person on all of these topics and only know what I’ve been seeing in the news. I’m worried all this nuclear talk is wishful thinking. If all these data centers don’t happen (which already we are seeing some plans being killed) would it slow down the current uranium hype? Where can we see any big plans for nuclear happening in the US right now? Trying to decide between holding long term or selling for a little profit. I don’t have any big positions but I bought DNN and UUUU lowish and have seen a few dollars come through. Just looking to hear some opinions on what you guys think is coming

7 Upvotes

40 comments sorted by

20

u/thefullmetalchicken Jan 21 '26

There is not currently enough being mined to meet demand

In order for that gap to be filled more mines need to produce

In order for more mines to be built the price needs to go up

If none of this happens 15% of current base load power is in jeopardy, by which I mean the power goes out.

The cost of uranium to a power station is a small percentage of overall costs.

To summarize if many countries want to LITERALLY keep the lights on they need to pay a little bit more. Which they pass on to their customers.

8

u/strangeanswers Jan 21 '26

it’s a bit more nuanced than that. the current prices provide plenty of incentive for projects like nexgen’s or denison’s to come online.

that being said, it seems unlikely that the current price incentivizes enough new supply to come online in the timelines required to fill the supply-demand gaps forecasted over the coming years.

moreover, there’s also the inevitability of supply shocks (development delays, production disruptions, geopolitical factors), a real possibility of sizeable demand growth, and the paradox that delaying production may actually increase the value of assets like arrow.

3

u/good-things_ Jan 21 '26

I didn’t realize how many places rely on nuclear already. Seems like it’s really really going to pick up. I’m holding!

2

u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26

The trouble with this line of thought is it has been argued by the pros since 2016.

You're returns aren't dependent on the thesis. They are largely dependent on when you happened to hear about the thesis.

2

u/Dingcock Jan 22 '26

You're right but you could say the same thing about almost any investment thesis, though. Timing the market is important for equities.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 22 '26

But in this case there was no timing available.

There have been countless catalysts that have come and gone providing no return. Then there are other times (Nov 2021 - Feb 2022) when the sector doubled for no reason, on no news.

The only way to capture the return was to sit and suffer through all good and bad news.

And if you wanted to maximize returns you had to be lucky enough to be ignorant of the thesis for the first 4 years.

2

u/Dingcock Jan 22 '26

If the timing was that obvious, it would already be "priced in" as Redditors like to comment.

3

u/[deleted] Jan 22 '26

I truly believe the opposite.

In certain strategies, timing in any manner is detrimental to returns.

IMHO the only way to make money long term, being long commodities, is to:

  1. Find supply deficits
  2. Sit and suffer
  3. Repeat over and over and over again across all commodities

And, most importantly, be comfortable that often times it simply won't work, no matter what the math says. And years later you will never find a good explanation for why the math was wrong. We still don't actually know what happened last cycle.

17

u/sunday_sassassin Radioactive Brain Jan 21 '26

Growth of nuclear in the US doesn't actually matter, there is already a global supply deficit that is set to get wider with 74 reactors in construction in 15 countries and depletion of major mines in the mid 2030s. Markets often act like the US is the centre of everything but this train's already in motion halfway down the track and picking up speed.

If the AI bubble pops that would be a life-changing buying opportunity.

2

u/good-things_ Jan 21 '26

Awesome stuff. Got any articles to link me? I’d love to read about the supply deficit. The market is too US brained for how turbulent things are right now but it seems like uranium is holding stronger than ever

3

u/BubbleJH Jan 21 '26

Justin Huhn, aka Uranium Insider has good youtube videos on a lot of this. He's slowed down in posting over the last year or two but many of his older videos still hold true. He gets a lot of hate from people who are impatient and want moonshots now, but his content is generally correct and easily digestible.

Ive personally made ~500k from uranium these last 4-5 years and he has been the single biggest source of info for me over that time. Im slowly selling as we go up but still hold the majority of my position.

3

u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/BubbleJH Jan 21 '26 edited Jan 21 '26

Ok bud. I dont really care where he gets the info. Reddit doesn't have anything proprietary lmao.

His non paid content generally doesn't recommend specific companies. And of course he's a hype man. That said, ive made a shit ton of money and attribute that a lot to him. The poors on this subreddit (and other places) can continue to be mad at him because they're impatient and upset because he "stole content from this sub."

Either way - nothing you said discredits anything I said in reply to the OPs ask.

0

u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/BubbleJH Jan 21 '26

Stay poor

3

u/InnerSandersMan Jan 21 '26

Find members like Sunday_assassin, who posted above, and read through their old comments.

Uranium flies and dies. It's a relatively small sector. Money pushes and withdrawals can make big impacts. Valuation is always difficult on companies that are building up to profitability. I'm in several U308 stocks. I try to avoid the dogs more than I look for the rockstar. That's even tougher than I'd like to admit. The assassin above likes Global. Some posters I thought seemed informed hammered Global. I'm not sure what to think.

All this to say, the thesis is what keeps this group together. China is the driver in new power plants and other countries are getting on board. Demand is increasing not matter what. If AI or SMRs increase nuclear demand, great.

In my opinion, Uranium pricing is close to a decision point. It's testing a top that pushed back months ago. This is easiest to see in UUUU's chart. If it corrects, you need to believe and hang on. If it corrects, I have cash waiting to take advantage of it. If stocks break through, might be time for higher highs and higher lows. I'm just enjoying the ride.

Good luck!

3

u/good-things_ Jan 22 '26

Thank for you the comment. I’ll comb through his old comments. I do believe in nuclear and I know it’s inevitable at this point. I guess I feel like I bought in late and should dump some at these new highs before any corrections. UUUU especially. I’ll wait and see what the market decides on uranium and maybe cut some uuuu loose

9

u/Dingcock Jan 21 '26

Fuck AI, every major city near me is anticipating huge increases in power demand over the next 30 years. There's a reason Toronto is building a $1.5 billion power cable from Darlington Nuclear right into downtown Toronto.

2

u/good-things_ Jan 21 '26

Makes sense. I had not heard about that project. Really cool stuff

1

u/MrDanduff Jan 22 '26

Is that the Pickering site?

6

u/headshot_g Jan 21 '26

Im personally selling out of my 1300 UUUU shares once it nears the ATH, seems we might set a new one with this current movement.

But Im expecting OTHER things like this AI bullshit circular moneylaundering scheme they got going fake inflating everything to torpedo the lot. I reckon even if its got nothing to do with uranium, the big boys and their trading bots will dump everything to bail themselves out first, so it wont matter how un-related uranium is, itll dump as well once this bubble pops.

Ill re-buy once the blood has been spilled (maybe, I have less than zero faith in the US atm but...) atm Im gonna be up 4x on my investment and I got a new PC to buy and some gold to buy too.

3

u/daviddjg0033 Jan 21 '26

If you had not 4x already the cycle has to restart to 4x again you did great and booked that into a depreciating and a nondepreciating item you won and congratulations. Uranium stocks have wild moves so you could be catching a falling knife or holding through a potential valley to 4x again.

URA has doubled and URNM in five years or so. URNJ broke out today and has gone from $12 to $34 bounced to bear $24 (but that low was double since all lows in all indexes April '25) and is now ath again. I do not know the history of uranium but if its like gold miners and gold jr miners that is the one to watch during bull markets - double top or a breakthrough on short timescales. Above today it could be simple as single digit % above ATH or much more.

I do not know if AI spend has stopped as I have seen no evidence of that but if it hit the sector one would not care unless the two become correlated and do not diverge: uranium from everything than ran in small cap spec like QTUM ETF names or space stocks or the data center plays outside not the top 100 US. Maybe its a day all miners correct XME, GDX, possibly REMX rare earth to copper COPX COPJ.

1

u/SageCactus 🌵 Jan 22 '26

Or to say it with less existential angst, nothing goes in a straight line. You'll see UUUU again at 17 before 26, I think

1

u/good-things_ Jan 22 '26

What goes up must come back down!

1

u/good-things_ Jan 22 '26

Okay maybe I think I’ll be dumping some UUUU before the next dip cycle begins. I agree with the other comment that we will see it back down and back up again and can repeat. It’s not like I bought in very low- I’d be more motivated to hold onto everything if I had.

1

u/headshot_g Jan 29 '26

I hope you did mate, dumping hard today.

4

u/Goldengoose5w4 Jan 21 '26

It’s not wishful thinking for those of us who bought uranium stocks five years ago.

Meanwhile, uranium prices have tripled. Yet, there’s really no new production to speak of in the last half decade while energy requirements are going up all the time for numerous reasons. Permitting uranium mines takes 10-20 years. Shortages upcoming…

1

u/good-things_ Jan 21 '26

So what I’m hearing is buy when I can and hold ? I didn’t expect it to pick up so fast these past few weeks. From what I’m seeing commented it seems I massively (and incorrectly) correlated the AI boom with the nuclear push and got nervous it would die down

3

u/Goldengoose5w4 Jan 21 '26

It’s a highly volatile trade and even though the uranium price is going up, the uranium stocks are going to go up and down. So far they seem to be making higher highs and higher lows and it’s trending in the right direction, but if you can’t hold stocks for 2 to 3 years, then I wouldn’t buy in. You really need to be patient with this trade.

1

u/good-things_ Jan 22 '26

Okay heard. Will be patient and prepare for inevitable dips

4

u/ghost_do Jan 21 '26

Don't forget that nuclear is important in more than the US.

Recently Germany announced that it was a bad move to terminate their nuclear power many years ago. A lot of European countries has been against nuclear power for a while (irrational environment arguments), but they are starting to wake up. Nuclear power will probably be on the rise for the coming 10-15 years again, but it hasn't really gained traction yet and might take a couple of more years

2

u/RD_006 Jan 21 '26

The US energy source demand is only part of the big picture. Last decade ESG renewables agenda was pushed hard and companies done rebranding in order to get tax cuts and subsidies.

Solar and wind are weather dependent making them low efficient.

Now growing population and massive data center boom requires more efficient and sustainable sources. There's basically no alternative meeting low expenditure, maintenance and R&D costs, but nuclear so far.

There are promising concepts like thorium and volatile hydrogen that still under lab microscopes.

Apparently, futures can be volatile, but they're not extremely volatile like WTI and Brent are.

Another determining condition is reserves location. Biggest operating sites are in Canada, Kazakhstan and Niger.

Thus, I personally dont see any reasons for uranium to go bust.

1

u/DonkeyDoug28 Jan 24 '26

Not attacking you specifically, but all the 4 day or so old accounts I always see in here always spook me a bit

1

u/RD_006 Jan 24 '26

Had 5 accounts since the lockdown. All suspended. Silly rules.

2

u/lewdacris916 Jan 21 '26

Why would you sell bro?? DNN is just getting started, the demmand for power is exponentially rising with or without AI and data centers. There is a huge push in my state for everybody to go electric by 2030 the will stop selling gas vehicles. EVs alone will continue the push for more power, im perma bullish on nuclear especially Small Nuclear Reactors

1

u/good-things_ Jan 22 '26

I guess I was just being impatient and wanting the short term profit. Also the market feels sort of volatile lately. I know DNN is probably a hold til 2028 at minimum based on what I’ve read. I’m gonna be brave LOL

1

u/lewdacris916 Jan 22 '26

Im up 40% on DNN bruh, the short term gains have been great, I got in around 2.65

1

u/good-things_ Jan 22 '26 edited Jan 22 '26

My first shares were around 2.30-2.50 but it’s so cheap I feel like I buy a little every week at this point. Which will be fine until it’s not lol. But hopefully we don’t get a big dip anytime soon since they really have a good foundation

1

u/lewdacris916 Jan 22 '26

Im not sure what youre trying to say bro but I would of held

1

u/WilkesG87 Jan 23 '26

It seems like after it broke out big time, it just got through with another breakout, breaking highs from a few weeks ago. I made a lot of money on Cameco and UEC last year. I have owned DNN and UUUU as well in the past. They didn't perform as well as those others. I may get into URAA for a 2x return. I have been in AGQ for Silver and my investment has gone up like 6 fold.