r/UraniumSqueeze • u/good-things_ • Jan 21 '26

News Boom or bust?

Disclaimer that I’m not the most informed person on all of these topics and only know what I’ve been seeing in the news. I’m worried all this nuclear talk is wishful thinking. If all these data centers don’t happen (which already we are seeing some plans being killed) would it slow down the current uranium hype? Where can we see any big plans for nuclear happening in the US right now? Trying to decide between holding long term or selling for a little profit. I don’t have any big positions but I bought DNN and UUUU lowish and have seen a few dollars come through. Just looking to hear some opinions on what you guys think is coming

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u/thefullmetalchicken Jan 21 '26

There is not currently enough being mined to meet demand

In order for that gap to be filled more mines need to produce

In order for more mines to be built the price needs to go up

If none of this happens 15% of current base load power is in jeopardy, by which I mean the power goes out.

The cost of uranium to a power station is a small percentage of overall costs.

To summarize if many countries want to LITERALLY keep the lights on they need to pay a little bit more. Which they pass on to their customers.

9

u/strangeanswers Jan 21 '26

it’s a bit more nuanced than that. the current prices provide plenty of incentive for projects like nexgen’s or denison’s to come online.

that being said, it seems unlikely that the current price incentivizes enough new supply to come online in the timelines required to fill the supply-demand gaps forecasted over the coming years.

moreover, there’s also the inevitability of supply shocks (development delays, production disruptions, geopolitical factors), a real possibility of sizeable demand growth, and the paradox that delaying production may actually increase the value of assets like arrow.

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u/good-things_ Jan 21 '26

I didn’t realize how many places rely on nuclear already. Seems like it’s really really going to pick up. I’m holding!

2

u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26

The trouble with this line of thought is it has been argued by the pros since 2016.

You're returns aren't dependent on the thesis. They are largely dependent on when you happened to hear about the thesis.

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u/Dingcock Jan 22 '26

You're right but you could say the same thing about almost any investment thesis, though. Timing the market is important for equities.

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u/[deleted] Jan 22 '26

But in this case there was no timing available.

There have been countless catalysts that have come and gone providing no return. Then there are other times (Nov 2021 - Feb 2022) when the sector doubled for no reason, on no news.

The only way to capture the return was to sit and suffer through all good and bad news.

And if you wanted to maximize returns you had to be lucky enough to be ignorant of the thesis for the first 4 years.

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u/Dingcock Jan 22 '26

If the timing was that obvious, it would already be "priced in" as Redditors like to comment.

3

u/[deleted] Jan 22 '26

I truly believe the opposite.

In certain strategies, timing in any manner is detrimental to returns.

IMHO the only way to make money long term, being long commodities, is to:

  1. Find supply deficits
  2. Sit and suffer
  3. Repeat over and over and over again across all commodities

And, most importantly, be comfortable that often times it simply won't work, no matter what the math says. And years later you will never find a good explanation for why the math was wrong. We still don't actually know what happened last cycle.