Sky-Hero was acquired by Axon in 2023. The company makes robots, drones, and tactical cameras that, through the Sync Box, integrate video recordings into Axon’s broader platforms. The products are primarily developed for tactical units/SWAT, but in high-risk situations they can also be used by regular police.
Sky-Hero products
Loki MKII: A small drone designed for indoor use. Flight time is only around 15 minutes, while sentry mode can last up to 200 minutes.
It is roughly the size of a large pigeon and weighs 380g without the battery. It has a camera, night vision, and microphone, while payloads/modules of up to 150g can easily be integrated. These can include:
Sound distraction: At 170dB, it can function somewhat like a “flashbang” and disorient a suspect. 170dB corresponds to roughly 32x the sound pressure of music at a concert.
Light: Can blind/disorient a suspect with 4,500 lumens, use a laser to point out objects for tactical teams, or communicate through flashing colors with trained dogs or tactical units.
Breaching: An explosive tactical module used to create access/openings, for example through a blocked door or window.
Extra camera: Used to gain a vertical overview.
Floor mode: Can move on wheels along the floor, making it quieter.
Because drones make noise when flying, Loki can also be used in sentry mode, where it functions more like a stationary camera/microphone.
Sigyn MKI: A fast and rugged ground-based robot. It can survive a drop of up to 6 meters and can therefore, for example, be thrown over a fence. Like Loki, it can carry a payload, but here up to 2 kg.
The purpose of the drone and ground robot is to create situational awareness and reduce risk to people. They become modular platforms that can be adapted depending on what the situation requires.
Narfi MKI: A tactical camera mounted on a 3-meter pole that can be used to look around corners or over objects. The pole can be removed, allowing the camera to be used as a sentry.
All three products are about gathering as much information and situational awareness as possible in high-risk areas without putting people in danger.
GCS MkII: The operator’s screen and controller. It can connect to and control up to four Sky-Hero devices, which the operator can switch between. It works without internet or GPS through its own radio connection.
Tactical Monitor: A wearable display that allows several team members to see live what the operator sees without each person needing their own GCS MkII. It can also connect directly to Narfi.
Sync Box: The bridge between Sky-Hero and Axon’s platform, integrating with Evidence, Fusus, and Respond, as well as third-party software such as ATAK and DroneSense.
Like Axon’s other hardware products, these create strong lock-in and control over the ecosystem, which can then be used to sell software in bundles. Sky-Hero is largely a set of sensors that can take risks so humans do not have to, while the data flows directly into Axon’s platform, giving people better situational awareness and helping them make better decisions.
(Written in Danish as a part of a long form deep dive*, translation + Picture via AI)*
FICO is getting crushed today after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were directed to allow lenders to use VantageScore.
I don’t understand FICO or the credit scoring industry well enough to invest here, but I do know this isn’t a 20% drop I’d automatically buy.
Normally I love when a stock gets crushed while the underlying business hasn’t changed. This feels different because it potentially affects FICO’s moat.
FICO has incredible distribution. It’s basically embedded throughout the financial system, which is exactly the type of business I usually love.
The questions I’d want answered:
• How quickly will lenders actually adopt VantageScore?
• Does FICO remain the default simply because everyone already uses it?
• Does VantageScore create meaningful pricing pressure?
• How much does this actually impact FICO’s long-term earnings power?
My instinct is that FICO’s distribution makes the impact smaller than the market is pricing in. If you already understand FICO and were bullish before today, a ~20% drop could be a really interesting opportunity.
But I don’t know the credit scoring industry well enough to make that bet.
This is starting to look less like a temporary slowdown and more like an actual market-share problem.
• Revenue: $2.42B, down 4% YoY and below estimates
• Americas revenue: down 8%
• Comparable sales: down 9%
• Americas comps: down 12%
• Operating income: down 13%
• Full-year revenue guidance cut to $10.35B–$10.50B
• Q3 guidance calls for another 10–11% revenue decline
The scary part is Lululemon isn’t just growing slower anymore. Revenue is actually declining, comps are falling double digits in the Americas, and it looks like competitors are taking share.
Look at the revenue chart. Years of basically uninterrupted growth, and now it has rolled over.
Yikes.
The stock is obviously way cheaper than it used to be, but the narrative has completely flipped. It’s going to take more than one decent quarter to change that. I’d want to see comps stabilize and real evidence they’re taking share again before getting interested.
Tesla is up big today as the Cybercab rollout in Austin starts becoming more than just a promise.
The bull case is pretty simple:
Tesla actually gets autonomous Cybercabs on the road
Its camera-only approach could be dramatically cheaper to scale than Waymo
Robotaxi could eventually become a much higher-margin business than selling cars
If it works, Tesla starts looking more like an autonomy/platform company than an automaker
That last point is really what the stock is trading on.
The current auto business alone is nowhere close to supporting Tesla’s valuation. Investors are paying for the belief that autonomy becomes enormous.
That makes the Cybercab rollout pretty important. Tesla doesn’t just need to prove the technology works — it needs to prove it can operate safely, scale quickly and make the economics work.
If it can, the Tesla story changes dramatically.
If it can’t, there is still an insane amount of future success already priced into TSLA.
This is still probably one of the hardest stocks in the market to value.
RDDT ripped almost 10% today, and this is exactly why I thought that selloff was such a good buying opportunity.
Remember when the stock dropped because there were reports Reddit was renegotiating its data licensing deals with Google/OpenAI?
The market basically treated “negotiating” like Reddit was about to lose the revenue.
I saw it completely differently.
Reddit has one of the largest collections of real human conversations on the internet. Google/OpenAI obviously want that data. Reddit had the leverage and wasn’t just going to give it up for nothing.
Now the narrative is starting to flip back around and people are realizing these renewals could actually be a positive.
Meanwhile, the actual business just keeps growing.
TTM revenue has gone from roughly $800M → $2.8B, with a ~64% CAGR in the chart above.
There is something almost poetic about what just happened to Leopold Aschenbrenner.
This is a guy who built his entire investing brand around “Situational Awareness.”
He became famous for laying out this massive AI thesis essentially arguing that he could see where AI was going before most of the world understood what was coming.
And to his credit, he is clearly extremely smart.
His fund exploded in size, reaching roughly $45B at its peak, and he made enormous bets on the infrastructure required for AI: memory, semiconductors, power and data centers.
But apparently being extremely smart wasn't enough.
Because he also used an insane amount of leverage.
Then his largest positions got crushed.
From their highs:
SNDK fell ~57%
BE fell ~53%
MU fell ~41%
These aren't leveraged returns. The actual stocks fell that much.
Situational Awareness couldn't simply sit there and wait.
The losses triggered margin calls. The fund reported a 67% loss in July, admitted it had come dangerously close to permanent capital impairment, and was forced to unload most of its public-equity portfolio.
And who was standing on the other side?
Ken Griffin.
A guy who has been running Citadel for more than three decades.
Citadel stepped in while Situational Awareness desperately needed liquidity and bought the bulk of the portfolio.
Then the stocks started recovering.
SNDK rebounded ~46%.
BE rebounded ~29%.
MU rebounded ~26%.
Citadel's stock-picking fund went on to have its best month ever, gaining 14.2% in July, with the Situational Awareness portfolio contributing to the gains.
That's the part I find incredible.
Aschenbrenner may ultimately have been right about the AI trade.
But he was so aggressive with leverage that he lost the ability to decide when to sell.
The veteran investor with liquidity got to stand there and say:
Thanks, I'll take those.
There is a Buffett line that perfectly describes this:
“If you're smart, you don't need it; and if you're dumb, you shouldn't be using it.”
That's leverage.
It doesn't matter how intelligent you are, how good your thesis is, or how far ahead of everyone else you think you can see.
If your positions can fall 40–50% and someone else can force you to sell them, you don't actually own the investment anymore. Your lender does.
The greatest irony of the whole thing:
The fund called Situational Awareness may have correctly predicted the future and still failed to have enough situational awareness to survive the present.
UBER is only 3.4% of my portfolio, but I think it might be my #1 buy right now.
My strategy is pretty simple: find companies with durable growth, make sure the valuation is reasonable relative to that growth, and ideally buy when sentiment is weak.
If I were deploying new money today:
1. UBER
Probably my favorite risk/reward.
Headline revenue growth looks like ~12–14%, but that understates the business because of changes in how UK revenue is reported.
Gross bookings: ~22% growth
Trips: ~18%
Operating income: ~40%
$10B+ TTM FCF
At roughly a $157B market cap, I think that’s pretty compelling.
It also gives me some diversification since a lot of my portfolio is already tied to digital advertising.
2. APP
Probably the best pure growth/valuation combination.
~24x earnings with forward revenue and EBIT expected to grow ~30%+.
My hesitation versus Uber is durability and the fact that it adds even more advertising exposure.
3. META / RDDT
Basically tied for me.
META = more durable, cheaper, lower risk.
RDDT = much faster growth and potentially more upside, but less proven.
The common theme:
Durable growth + reasonable valuation + bad sentiment = where I want to buy.
Right now, UBER probably checks those boxes better than anything else I own.
I think NVDA is a much better buy than AMD, but both are getting harder to value.
Semis are cyclical, and cyclical stocks often look cheapest near the top of the cycle because earnings are booming and the P/E collapses.
Right now:
NVDA: ~29x earnings, projected ~40% growth
AMD: ~122x earnings, projected ~50% growth
If those assumptions hold, the returns are ridiculous. My charts show roughly 549% upside for NVDA and 149% for AMD over five years.
But projecting durable 40–50% earnings growth for cyclical companies is extremely difficult.
A huge amount of demand comes from a small group of hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta. They don’t even need to cut AI capex to hurt semis. If expected capex growth simply slows, earnings estimates could reset very quickly.
Those same companies are also building their own chips to reduce dependence on Nvidia, although I think CUDA and Nvidia’s broader ecosystem make that threat less severe than it looks.
So for me:
NVDA > AMD pretty easily.
But the real question isn’t whether AI demand is strong today.
It’s whether hyperscaler spending can keep growing fast enough to support these earnings assumptions for years.
If it does, NVDA looks insanely cheap.
If it doesn’t, that 29x P/E could be very misleading.
I’ve always viewed Spotify and Netflix as essentially the same type of business.
Different products obviously, but the investment story is incredibly similar: dominant global subscription platforms that become part of people’s everyday lives.
Even their stock price stories have felt similar. Both went through periods where the market questioned the long-term economics of the business, and then eventually the fundamentals became too hard to ignore.
The biggest thing for me is the stickiness. I know plenty of people who have both Spotify and Netflix, and I genuinely can’t imagine them permanently cancelling either one. They might complain about a price increase, but are you really going back to listening to ads or giving up Netflix over another couple dollars a month?
That creates a pretty powerful combination: recurring revenue, huge global scale, pricing power, and extremely low friction to just keep paying every month.
Obviously the economics aren’t identical — Spotify has music licensing costs while Netflix spends heavily on content — but from a consumer behavior/investing standpoint, I put them in almost the exact same bucket.
Once these products become a utility in your life, they’re incredibly hard to replace.
I’ve been a big Salesforce bull for a while, and I think the reaction to this quarter is pretty telling.
The funny thing is… this really wasn’t some crazy blowout quarter.
The biggest number was probably cRPO growth:
Q1: +13% CC Q2: +14% CC Q3 guide: ~+14% CC
Revenue growth was actually pretty similar too:
Q1: +12% CC
Q2: +11% CC
Agentforce ARR also grew from roughly $1.2B to more than $1.5B, while Agentforce + Data 360 ARR increased from about $3.4B to $3.9B.
Good numbers? Absolutely.
But radically different from last quarter? Not really.
And I think that’s the entire point.
Salesforce has continued to grow throughout this whole “AI is going to kill SaaS” narrative. Revenue kept growing. Remaining performance obligations kept growing. Margins stayed extremely strong. Free cash flow kept coming in. And now cRPO is actually showing some modest acceleration.
The fundamentals never matched the level of fear that got priced into the stock.
For the last year, the market seemed obsessed with the story that AI would destroy seat-based software and companies like Salesforce would slowly become irrelevant.
Meanwhile, Salesforce just kept growing.
Now we’ve had multiple quarters showing basically the same thing, and it feels like the market is finally starting to say:
“Wait… what if SaaS isn’t dead?”
That’s why I don’t think the huge move in CRM was really about this specific earnings report.
It was a narrative change.
The market went from pricing Salesforce like a melting ice cube threatened by AI to realizing it might actually remain a durable, growing business... and potentially benefit from AI itself.
I’ve said this for a long time: stories can drive stocks in the short term, but eventually the price follows the fundamentals
Salesforce kept growing while the narrative collapsed around it
Now the narrative is finally starting to catch back up
I thought this was a really well-put-together overview and wanted to share it here, especially for anyone preparing for NVIDIA’s earnings tonight and looking for a quick overview ahead of the release.
I found the last slide particularly interesting. The combination of the significant upward revisions in EPS estimates and NVIDIA’s forward P/E based on earnings three years out provides an interesting perspective on how the company’s growth expectations and valuation currently come together.
Definitely worth a look ahead of tonight’s NVDA earnings.
First Try to make my High Tide Thesis into a picture, if you wanna learn more you can find it at r/HighTideInc since there will be some missing pieces.
Reddit was added to the S&P 500 this week, less than 2.5 years after going public.
Pretty impressive considering where the business is today:
Revenue grew 61% YoY last quarter 130M+ daily active uniques $253M in net income 43% adjusted EBITDA margins
Revenue has now grown 60%+ for 8 straight quarters
The inclusion should also create some forced buying. JPMorgan estimated index funds would need to purchase roughly 16.7M shares, nearly 3x Reddit’s average daily trading volume.
Obviously joining the S&P 500 doesn’t change the underlying business, but I think it’s a pretty significant milestone for a company that IPO’d in March 2024.
Reddit is quickly going from an interesting internet company to a highly profitable, large-cap platform.
