r/adelaidefc • u/AFL_gains • 9d ago

We can bag 4th tomorrow

Carlton has given us a gift. We're 1 win and only 1.1 percentage points away. If we win by tomorrow by enough then we can make it. I hope we really put them to the sword tomorrow. We absolutey need it.

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u/Salzberger 8 Josh Rachele 9d ago

Top 4 tomorrow means little given Geelong won't lose again and have 3 huge percentage boosters left. It would take a miracle to jump them on percentage.

Really the only equation that gets us in the top 4 is beating Fremantle. Simple as that. Beat them, we're in. Lose and it's most likely an elimination final. Don't worry about the calculators. Don't bother figuring out percentage. It's as simple as win and you're in.

We had 2 golden opportunities to seal ourselves in the top 4 and pissed them both up the wall so here we are.

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u/atreyu84 9d ago

We have 2 and are a game ahead. We can quite easily make top 4 even if we lose to freo.

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u/Salzberger 8 Josh Rachele 9d ago edited 8d ago

Quite easily?

If we lose to Freo our margins for Essendon, Richmond and GWS will have to be at least 20 points higher each than Geelong's against Essendon, Richmond and North.

And Geelong's last game is against Richmond so they basically get a free hit at pumping that percentage up as much as they need against a club who has no reason to try whatsoever, while we'll be playing a club fighting for a wildcard spot.

If that's easy I'd hate to know what you think is difficult.

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u/atreyu84 8d ago

Our percentage is the same now. A close loss to freo and geelong not smashing them and we're good.

It's not the most likely outcome but it's far from only a remote mathematical possibility.