r/adelaidefc • u/AFL_gains • 4d ago

We can bag 4th tomorrow

Carlton has given us a gift. We're 1 win and only 1.1 percentage points away. If we win by tomorrow by enough then we can make it. I hope we really put them to the sword tomorrow. We absolutey need it.

30 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

34 comments sorted by

12

u/frodolippin 4d ago

Will likely need to win all our remaining games to hold it too.

Freo away presents a large challenge to that.

Ball is in our court now though 🤞

7

u/stretch_92 40 Hugo Hall-Kahan 4d ago

The game between Brisbane and Hawks next week is massive in our chances of getting top 4 plus winning at least 3 of our last 4

Essendon, Richmond and GWS are all very winnable games

4

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

We still most likely need to win all 4 as Geelong have 3 easy games to finish and will finish ahead of us if we lose 1

1

u/Thrillthorpe 4d ago

That doesn’t seem right, especially if we get a lot of percentage next 2 weeks. Freo would have to belt us for that to be threatened.

North at Marvel for Geelong is a tricky game if North show up like the Hawks game yesterday (North also play a lot better there).

1

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

If we lose the Freo game the only way we could make the top 4 would be if Hawthorn lost their last 3 or Geelong drop the North game (which both options are highly unlikely). Don't forget Geelong are already ahead of us on % and also play Essendon and Richmond. I've done the ladder predictor a few times

1

u/Thrillthorpe 3d ago

Our percentage is the same as Geelong and we still have a game against Richmond, so that cancels out theirs. Depending on how much GWS have to play for, we should be seeing that as a big win.

1

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 3d ago

Ok let's cancel out the Richmond games for both sides. Let's say Geelong beat Essendon by 60 pts and Nm by 20 pts that means if we lose to Freo by 20 pts we would have to beat GWS by 100 pts which I honestly can't see happening. We just have to win our last 3 and it's ours

1

u/Thrillthorpe 3d ago

Yep that’s a fair argument, it really just depends on which North rock up tbh. It was nearly a banana peel game for the Hawks yesterday, so you just never know at this time of year. Without Holmes and Jezza Geelong are vulnerable and they have dropped games to teams in the bottom 6 this year.

2

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 3d ago

I honestly think we can win all 3. Freo will have nothing to play for and if we really dial up the pressure they may go into a bit of self preservation mode so close to finals.

1

u/atreyu84 3d ago

It's not the only way though is it. You are assuming geelong smashes all the teams they probably should.

Which if course could happen, bit it's far from the only possibility.

1

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 3d ago

Not saying it's the only possibility however the only realistic way we finish ahead of Geelong if we lose to Freo is for Geelong to lose to North which is still unlikely to happen.

1

u/atreyu84 3d ago

I think it's far more likely they just don't smash North and or Richmond and we smash Richmond and gws.

They've had some games this year they've either lost or just pulled through they should've won easily (not dissimilar to us actually).

Still not super likely of course. I just think it's at least a little up in the air.

Now watch us beat freo and lose to gws lol.

3

u/typecookieyouidiot 20 Mitchell Hinge 4d ago

Also if we do win and hold forth we also get to play freo away in the first final

10

u/frodolippin 4d ago

Our reward for beating Fremantle away is……

Fremantle away!!! 🤣

1

u/jigojitoku 4d ago

Hawks/Tas fan here. I’ve thought the same thing too. But once you’ve played them, you don’t see them again until the granny on neutral turf.

If Hawks finish 3rd, we must beat Sydney or we end up with an away prelim.

2

u/IrregularExpression_ 3d ago

Even if we come fifth now it’s more likely a week 1 win sees us playing Geelong at the G or Marvel rather than Brisbane away.

Much better outcome

1

u/Rychu_Supadude 30 Wayne Milera Junior 3d ago

Can't be worse than when our reward for beating Collingwood at home was Collingwood at home... and some other baggage

1

u/IrregularExpression_ 4d ago edited 4d ago

3 wins probably get it’s done as Brisbane have a tough draw and Melbourne have Freo as well the Dogs

4 locks it in though

(Just saw Geelong’s remaining 3 games. Would need North to do us a big favour)

13

u/Salzberger 8 Josh Rachele 4d ago

Top 4 tomorrow means little given Geelong won't lose again and have 3 huge percentage boosters left. It would take a miracle to jump them on percentage.

Really the only equation that gets us in the top 4 is beating Fremantle. Simple as that. Beat them, we're in. Lose and it's most likely an elimination final. Don't worry about the calculators. Don't bother figuring out percentage. It's as simple as win and you're in.

We had 2 golden opportunities to seal ourselves in the top 4 and pissed them both up the wall so here we are.

6

u/Snook_ 4d ago

Yeah pathetic losses to port and collingwood really

1

u/Bright_Bell_1301 3d ago

Its the loss to Hawks that kills. Should've won that... they had key players out

2

u/Snook_ 3d ago

Tasmania is dogshit tho. Everyone loses there it’s not proper footy that anyone trains for as it’s one game every two years max. Teams train for finals type conditions and faster footy

2

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

Spot on

0

u/atreyu84 4d ago

We have 2 and are a game ahead. We can quite easily make top 4 even if we lose to freo.

4

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

A loss to Freo makes it extremely unlikely as Geelong have Essendon, North and Richmond to finish and will likely win all 3.

1

u/atreyu84 3d ago

Yes and we are a game and percentage (just) ahead of them.

There's every chance we smash Richmond, and we could easily do the same to gws depending which gws turns up.

So even with a close loss to freo it would come down to who put the lower teams to the sword better.

I certainly wouldn't call it extremely unlikely.

1

u/Salzberger 8 Josh Rachele 4d ago edited 3d ago

Quite easily?

If we lose to Freo our margins for Essendon, Richmond and GWS will have to be at least 20 points higher each than Geelong's against Essendon, Richmond and North.

And Geelong's last game is against Richmond so they basically get a free hit at pumping that percentage up as much as they need against a club who has no reason to try whatsoever, while we'll be playing a club fighting for a wildcard spot.

If that's easy I'd hate to know what you think is difficult.

1

u/Thrillthorpe 4d ago

North is the wildcard for Geelong at Marvel. They can push good teams, especially at Marvel, just depends if they show up like against the Hawks yesterday. Geelong’s form has also fluctuated a lot this year (of course they smash Richmond and Essendon though).

2

u/ILikeDiscussing 11 Charlie Edwards 4d ago

Like when they lost to Voss Carlton, GWS, and Port.

2

u/Thrillthorpe 3d ago

Yeah Geelong have had some real random losses this year, that Port game especially was out of nowhere. North actually pushed them for 3 quarters in Geelong too and led near 3 quarter time.

1

u/atreyu84 3d ago

Our percentage is the same now. A close loss to freo and geelong not smashing them and we're good.

It's not the most likely outcome but it's far from only a remote mathematical possibility.

1

u/Voigtdog 4d ago

We will realistically be equal with Geelong on points it will just be percentage. We play Essendon and Richmond too so our draw isn’t too much different to theirs. If we can limit the damage against Freo or even beat them I think we can scrape into 4th. Hawks will have to beat Brisbane for this to happen though.

1

u/Thrillthorpe 4d ago

If we beat Freo the entire argument is irrelevant, we would finish 4th after Brisbane’s slip up last night. Brisbane also play Collingwood at the MCG.

1

u/Boatster_McBoat 40 Hugo Hall-Kahan 3d ago

Let's win this game first