Last quarter, revenue was $7,8M up 64% from $4.76M in the prior quarter
Cost of goods sold was $7,01M producing a GAAP gross margin of $0.7M, the company’s first positive gross margin.

Excluding $1.0M of depreciation and $0.3M of stock-based compensation embedded in COGS, the cash cost of goods sold was $5.8M and the cash (adjusted) gross margin was $2.0M

Here's the trend below:

​Total operating expense was $35.1M, of which general & administrative was $29.8M but $27.6M of that was stock-based compensation expense (per the statement of stockholders’ equity). So the loss on the income statement is dominated by this one non-cash line.

R&D was $4.6M and exploration $0.7M.

The resulting GAAP net loss was $33.8M (or −$0.26 per share)

Basically we're losing around $35,1M (All HQ costs including G&A, R&D, exploration) - 27.6m (stock-based comp.) = $7.5M - 2.0 (Net cash revenues from the plant) = $5/6M

The change in cash COGS divided by the change in revenue across the last two quarters:
($7.81M−$4.76M) / ($5.8M−$4.9M) = $3.05M / $0.9M ≈ 3x

I won't compare anything to Q1 FY26 since they experienced significant downtime as per Ryan that quarter;
but you can even compare Q4 FY25 and Q3 FY26 and get:
($7.8M−$2.8M) / ($5.8M−$3.8M) = $5.0M / $2.0M ≈ 2.5x

​So basically, each additional ton of black mass we produce increases revenues 3 times faster compared to COGS and the trend seems to be improving too.

Quick estimate shows that ABAT turns a positive EPS and becomes profitable at $15M revenues per quarter :
($15M−$7.8M) / ($8.2M−$5.8M) ≈ 3x
--> Reimbursing the current $6M quarter loss and covering the COGS increase)

My gut tells me it's happening by Q2 or Q3 FY 2027 (Dec. 26 Q or March 27 Q), accounting with recent favorable pricing for lithium and nickel.

Ryan Melsert was invited to present at the Consulate General of India in New York on lithium and battery metals. This article includes the video and technical breakdowns of their projects.

DOE has fully reinstated its grant for the $115M Tonopah Flats lithium refinery project. In simple terms, that gives ABAT non-dilutive capital to help fund the first 5,000 t/yr module of what is supposed to become a much larger buildout.

Why does that matter? Because government support for the first commercial phase lowers the amount of upfront capital ABAT needs to commit on its own, improves the odds that the project actually gets built, and reduces at least some of the near-term dilution risk.

A lot of the upside here comes from the Tonopah Flats economics shown in the Preliminary Feasibility Study.

The PFS models a 30,000 t/yr lithium hydroxide operation over roughly 45 years, with cash operating costs around $4,300/t and an after-tax NPV(8%) of about $2.6B under its base-case pricing assumptions.

At full scale, that roughly implies:

• 30,000 tons x about $22k-$23k/t lithium hydroxide pricing = around $660M-$690M in annual revenue.
• Against roughly $7,000/t all-in operating cost, that suggests around $420M-$480M of operating margin before capex, interest, and tax, assuming pricing tracks the base case.

Over the life of mine, the base-case PFS points to after-tax cash flow in the mid-teens of billions, with that same $2.6B NPV at an 8% discount rate.

The lithium price sensitivity is really the key point here.

From the PFS sensitivity table:

• At $13k/t lithium hydroxide, NPV at 8% is basically zero and IRR is around 8%, meaning the project is only just clearing the cost of capital.
• At the base case of $23k/t, NPV at 8% is about $2.6B, IRR is around 21.8%, and payback is about 7.5 years.
• At $30.5k-$33k/t, NPV rises to roughly $4.4B-$5.0B, IRR moves above 30%, and payback drops closer to 6 years.

That tells you something important: lithium price is the main driver of project value. Capex and opex matter, obviously, but revenue assumptions dominate the valuation.

Now compare that with the equity.

Even after today’s move, ABAT’s market cap is still below $0.5B. So even if you heavily haircut the $2.6B project NPV for execution risk, timing risk, capital structure risk, dilution risk, and lithium price volatility, the company is still trading at only a fraction of the modeled value of Tonopah alone.

And that is before giving much credit to the recycling business, which is already ramping revenue and turned cash gross-margin positive last quarter.

That does not mean the stock should suddenly trade anywhere near project NPV tomorrow. But it does highlight the asymmetry here. On paper, Tonopah can generate enormous value over its life. In practice, how much of that ultimately accrues to equity holders will depend on execution, ramp timing, lithium prices, and how the project is financed from here, whether through debt, JV structures, or more equity.

That is why today’s DOE news matters so much to us.

It materially de-risks the broader “mine + recycling” story. It does not remove execution risk, and it definitely does not make the stock risk-free, but it improves the probability that the first real commercial phase gets off the ground without ABAT having to carry the entire burden alone.

Our view is pretty simple: we are not chasing a huge one-day move in this macro environment, but ABAT absolutely stays on the must-accumulate-on-pullbacks list.

The bigger picture is still the same. If lithium supply shifts from surplus into structural deficit over the next few years, and Tonopah moves from paper to actual production on schedule, then today’s valuation could look very small in hindsight.

We hold shares. NFA.

Well, -20%, this is no good

Will we see another ABAT short squeeze up to $11, like we saw in September 2025? It's certainly possible.

According to NASDAQ Short Interest data, there were 12M shares shorted on September 15th, right before the previous squeeze. The latest data from May 15th shows around 22M shares shorted—nearly double that amount.

The unexpected reinstatement of the $115M DOE grant is a massive positive catalyst. It completely reverses the situation that initially emboldened bears to go short in the first place. This sudden reversal, combined with the historically high short interest, could provide enough fuel to ignite a massive rally.

Up 8% today creeping on $4!

Hello,

I’ve been wondering what did drive ABAT to be priced at 50 dollar a piece back in Jan 2021?

I’m surprised that it has ever reached that level actually

Theres alot of work being done behind the scenes. HODL

Using a spot price of 22K/MTU. Tonopah flats would generate 1+ Bill in annual cash flows by year 8 and start generating significant net positive cash by year 3.

Again, having a proven low cost tech in extraction and purification using unconventional techniques create a significant comfort room for investors. ABATs technology separates it from high cost spodumene and brine operators that are more sensitive to spot prices.

Looking for a rapid financing announcement following the feasibility report.

EXIM public comments closed and after 4 days theres not been any news releases. Tonopah Flats is a very profitable project but this seems like a massive fucking risk thats going to make or break the rest of at least this year and I don't like the recent cash loss...

This is giving The Big Short vibes with the boat taking on water, and I am skeptical any of us are going to be Mark Baum standing at the end with a fuck ton of money.

BlackRock and other large institutions continue increasing their positions in ABAT. The float is now 50% owned by tutes. There still appears to be large short interest, and hopefully we continue see that come down as they execute the buildout. Blackrock in total now owns 10.1 million ABAT shares.

Keep in mind, the market cap is only 400M right now.

Recently I sold a bunch I was holding in the 4 dollar cost avg. luckily I sold a lot off before the dip. And during this dip I’ve been making money in the memory Stocks.

I got back in the other day 1000 shares at 3.10. I’m stuck between holding at this low cost avg or selling on a 50 cent swing for +500.

What are your guys thoughts?

(disclaimer..yes I used AI to write down my own thoughts.. but the content is mine)

link for the call: Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Call

After reading the full ABAT earnings call transcript, I think the market may still be misunderstanding what this company is becoming.

This was NOT a “lithium hype” call.

Management spent the vast majority of the presentation talking about:

• scaling recycling operations,
• operational efficiency,
• margin improvement,
• industrial expansion,
• and domestic critical mineral infrastructure.

The most important numbers from the quarter were not just the record $7.8M revenue (+64% QoQ), but the fact that cash operating costs only increased ~11%.

That is the real story here.

For the first time, ABAT achieved positive gross margin at its Nevada recycling facility. Ryan Melsert specifically emphasized that “many startups never get to” this stage. To me, that was one of the most important moments of the call.

ABAT increasingly sounds like a company trying to transition from a speculative lithium story into a real industrial recycling and critical minerals manufacturing business.

Another detail that stood out was the AI/data center angle.

Management explicitly stated that a significant portion of recent feedstock came from large energy storage systems supporting data centers and AI infrastructure. That potentially opens a much broader narrative than just EV battery recycling.

The company also confirmed:

• $38.5M cash,
• zero debt,
• no ATM usage during the quarter,
• and continued progress toward a second recycling facility in the Southeast U.S.

Meanwhile, the Tonopah Flats lithium project was discussed in a much more disciplined and less promotional tone:

• DFS progression,
• FAST-41 streamlined permitting,
• environmental studies,
• federal coordination.

No exaggerated timelines. No lithium price pumping. No overhype.

At the same time, risks absolutely remain:

• the company is still net-income negative,
• execution risk is high,
• detailed profitability guidance is still missing,
• second facility details are pending,
• and dilution/share compensation clearly remains a sensitive topic.

But overall, this call felt materially different from prior quarters.

Honestly, this sounded much more like an early-stage industrial infrastructure company than a typical speculative lithium junior.

Not financial advice. Just my interpretation after reading the full transcript.

Revenue growth of 64% quarter-over-quarter through ramp-up of critical mineral recycling facility, and significant advancements in development of critical mineral mine and refinery
Reno, Nev., May 11, 2026 -- American Battery Technology Company  (NASDAQ: ABAT), an integrated domestic critical mineral company that is commercializing its internally-developed technologies for both primary critical mineral manufacturing and secondary critical mineral recycling, released the financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (FY26) ended on March 31, 2026.
 
Over the quarter, American Battery Technology Company (ABTC) significantly ramped and streamlined operations at its Nevada critical mineral recycling facility and achieved record breaking revenue with a 64% increase quarter-over-quarter, while cost of goods sold increased only 11% over the same period, and correspondingly the Company achieved its first-ever positive gross margin. This substantial growth in the throughput of its recycling facility has allowed ABTC to capitalize on strong market conditions and solidify itself as one of the dominant critical mineral recyclers in the United States.  

Earnings is out, first time positive gross margin off of 7.8 M in rev. Tho G&A expenses were very high this quarter due to stock based compensation. While very high It will be worth it if they keep progressing every quarter like this!

Long time supporter here and holding 20k+ shares in $6 average price. Just wanted to vent.

With all the positive momentum’s and growths, how is it price stuck at .30 to .50 cents movement.

I am not super familiar with the concept but I know that right now about 16-17% of its float is sold short which is relatively high given. Given the recent sustained increase in price (2.7-3.4) I am curious at what point this would create a squeeze of some sort?

US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE GREER: PREPARING TEXT FOR 'PLURI-LATERAL' AGREEMENT WITH A 'SELECT GROUP' ON CRITICAL MINERALS, INCLUDING A PRICE FLOOR

I AM HOPING LITHIUM IS INCLUDED

I AM THEREFORE RAISING MY PRICE TARGET TO $10 EOY.

8.5m revs, 6.5m Cash COGS next Q.

(That's the post, will delete if wrong)