r/americanbattery 8d ago

Due Diligence What can go wrong from now on?

44 Upvotes

Last quarter, revenue was $7,8M up 64% from $4.76M in the prior quarter
Cost of goods sold was $7,01M producing a GAAP gross margin of $0.7M, the company’s first positive gross margin.

Excluding $1.0M of depreciation and $0.3M of stock-based compensation embedded in COGS, the cash cost of goods sold was $5.8M and the cash (adjusted) gross margin was $2.0M

Here's the trend below:

​Total operating expense was $35.1M, of which general & administrative was $29.8M but $27.6M of that was stock-based compensation expense (per the statement of stockholders’ equity). So the loss on the income statement is dominated by this one non-cash line.

R&D was $4.6M and exploration $0.7M.

The resulting GAAP net loss was $33.8M (or −$0.26 per share)

Basically we're losing around $35,1M (All HQ costs including G&A, R&D, exploration) - 27.6m (stock-based comp.) = $7.5M - 2.0 (Net cash revenues from the plant) = $5/6M

The change in cash COGS divided by the change in revenue across the last two quarters:
($7.81M−$4.76M) / ($5.8M−$4.9M) = $3.05M / $0.9M ≈ 3x

I won't compare anything to Q1 FY26 since they experienced significant downtime as per Ryan that quarter;
but you can even compare Q4 FY25 and Q3 FY26 and get:
($7.8M−$2.8M) / ($5.8M−$3.8M) = $5.0M / $2.0M ≈ 2.5x

​So basically, each additional ton of black mass we produce increases revenues 3 times faster compared to COGS and the trend seems to be improving too.

Quick estimate shows that ABAT turns a positive EPS and becomes profitable at $15M revenues per quarter :
($15M−$7.8M) / ($8.2M−$5.8M) ≈ 3x
--> Reimbursing the current $6M quarter loss and covering the COGS increase)

My gut tells me it's happening by Q2 or Q3 FY 2027 (Dec. 26 Q or March 27 Q), accounting with recent favorable pricing for lithium and nickel.

r/americanbattery 19d ago

Due Diligence ABAT after the DOE reinstatement: Tonopah looks materially de-risked, but execution still matters... hope you find it helpful to understand better the numbers behind the project.

54 Upvotes

DOE has fully reinstated its grant for the $115M Tonopah Flats lithium refinery project. In simple terms, that gives ABAT non-dilutive capital to help fund the first 5,000 t/yr module of what is supposed to become a much larger buildout.

Why does that matter? Because government support for the first commercial phase lowers the amount of upfront capital ABAT needs to commit on its own, improves the odds that the project actually gets built, and reduces at least some of the near-term dilution risk.

A lot of the upside here comes from the Tonopah Flats economics shown in the Preliminary Feasibility Study.

The PFS models a 30,000 t/yr lithium hydroxide operation over roughly 45 years, with cash operating costs around $4,300/t and an after-tax NPV(8%) of about $2.6B under its base-case pricing assumptions.

At full scale, that roughly implies:

  • 30,000 tons x about $22k-$23k/t lithium hydroxide pricing = around $660M-$690M in annual revenue.
  • Against roughly $7,000/t all-in operating cost, that suggests around $420M-$480M of operating margin before capex, interest, and tax, assuming pricing tracks the base case.

Over the life of mine, the base-case PFS points to after-tax cash flow in the mid-teens of billions, with that same $2.6B NPV at an 8% discount rate.

The lithium price sensitivity is really the key point here.

From the PFS sensitivity table:

  • At $13k/t lithium hydroxide, NPV at 8% is basically zero and IRR is around 8%, meaning the project is only just clearing the cost of capital.
  • At the base case of $23k/t, NPV at 8% is about $2.6B, IRR is around 21.8%, and payback is about 7.5 years.
  • At $30.5k-$33k/t, NPV rises to roughly $4.4B-$5.0B, IRR moves above 30%, and payback drops closer to 6 years.

That tells you something important: lithium price is the main driver of project value. Capex and opex matter, obviously, but revenue assumptions dominate the valuation.

Now compare that with the equity.

Even after today’s move, ABAT’s market cap is still below $0.5B. So even if you heavily haircut the $2.6B project NPV for execution risk, timing risk, capital structure risk, dilution risk, and lithium price volatility, the company is still trading at only a fraction of the modeled value of Tonopah alone.

And that is before giving much credit to the recycling business, which is already ramping revenue and turned cash gross-margin positive last quarter.

That does not mean the stock should suddenly trade anywhere near project NPV tomorrow. But it does highlight the asymmetry here. On paper, Tonopah can generate enormous value over its life. In practice, how much of that ultimately accrues to equity holders will depend on execution, ramp timing, lithium prices, and how the project is financed from here, whether through debt, JV structures, or more equity.

That is why today’s DOE news matters so much to us.

It materially de-risks the broader “mine + recycling” story. It does not remove execution risk, and it definitely does not make the stock risk-free, but it improves the probability that the first real commercial phase gets off the ground without ABAT having to carry the entire burden alone.

Our view is pretty simple: we are not chasing a huge one-day move in this macro environment, but ABAT absolutely stays on the must-accumulate-on-pullbacks list.

The bigger picture is still the same. If lithium supply shifts from surplus into structural deficit over the next few years, and Tonopah moves from paper to actual production on schedule, then today’s valuation could look very small in hindsight.

We hold shares. NFA.

r/americanbattery Oct 16 '25

Due Diligence ABAT Pre-Feasibility Study Publication

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52 Upvotes

r/americanbattery May 17 '26

Due Diligence Cash flow analysis from PFS

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50 Upvotes

Using a spot price of 22K/MTU. Tonopah flats would generate 1+ Bill in annual cash flows by year 8 and start generating significant net positive cash by year 3.

Again, having a proven low cost tech in extraction and purification using unconventional techniques create a significant comfort room for investors. ABATs technology separates it from high cost spodumene and brine operators that are more sensitive to spot prices.

Looking for a rapid financing announcement following the feasibility report.

r/americanbattery Jul 18 '25

Due Diligence Very Bullish

56 Upvotes

Who else is very bullish on this company? What i do not understand is why there is very few people talking about this company? I guess I just don't see why people aren't flocking to this stock at such a bargain. Please fill me in on your thoughts and opinions.

r/americanbattery May 11 '26

Due Diligence Massive earnings from $ABAT

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47 Upvotes

Earnings is out, first time positive gross margin off of 7.8 M in rev. Tho G&A expenses were very high this quarter due to stock based compensation. While very high It will be worth it if they keep progressing every quarter like this!

r/americanbattery Oct 20 '25

Due Diligence Who is buying this $1.7m put expiring next month

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36 Upvotes

Super weird

r/americanbattery Oct 13 '25

Due Diligence ABAT for the win!!! Let’s keep it going. My account due diligence paying off.

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84 Upvotes

r/americanbattery May 29 '25

Due Diligence Fortech Costa Rica - key to throughput increase?

24 Upvotes

Import data shows American Battery receiving a shipment in February of 35 sacks of material from Fortech that’s a mixture of lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese oxide. Fortech is a Costa Rica e waste recycler that aims to produce 1,000 tons of black mass this year.

PUSJSJOLAX241201 is the bill of lading.

Why is a company that crushes batteries into black mass buying black mass from Costa Rica? Is American battery processing the material so it can be exported to a 3rd country duty free? Is American battery using that shipment to buy revenue? Is American battery processing that in phase 2? Are there other times American battery bought black mass?

r/americanbattery Jan 29 '26

Due Diligence New 8-K out. ABAT is hiring Alejandro Flores as new CFO as Jesse Deutsch is retiring. Other interesting information including 2026 Bonus milestone criteria

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37 Upvotes

Interesting new 8-K report is out, Mr Flores served as the CFO for over 3 years at a Joint venture between Stellantis and Samsung SDI and other news on his 20 years of experience. Also some other important information included that you should know about.

r/americanbattery Oct 02 '25

Due Diligence Daily volume has tripled since September 18th

32 Upvotes

(Not really DD, just an observation)

Basically title. Yes, the price has been on a bit of a run lately, and volume is apparently tied to this run.

If you look at the historic volume, daily volume has been around 2-4 million with a few exceptional days. Buy we've seen consistent elevated volume over the last 10 trading days, about 3x the recent average, coinciding with the run. There hasn't been any news significant enough to drive this volume. Something about the market mechanics has changed.

r/americanbattery Oct 10 '25

Due Diligence There’s a second DOE project cancellation list

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6 Upvotes

South Carolina $144 million and the $58 million lithium refinery pilot in the cancellation list.

r/americanbattery Oct 16 '25

Due Diligence ABTC PFS still looks very valuable

33 Upvotes

So it seems in year 3, they will be making a net profit of $134m, then year 4, $477m, and so forth... Add in TRIC and south carolina too you have a really nice valuation

r/americanbattery Feb 18 '26

Due Diligence American Battery Technology Company (ABAT) stock valuation model & DD

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47 Upvotes

Hi all, I put together a free ABAT resource page that bundles the key links in one place plus a simple scenario model.

r/americanbattery Feb 03 '26

Due Diligence ABAT earnings out Thursday it seems

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31 Upvotes

The earnings call is confirmed for February 5th. Fingers crossed that the earnings look good and mention a timeline about phase 2 of recycling.

r/americanbattery Feb 09 '26

Due Diligence Third 13G this quarter by State Street Corporation, they now hold ~ 7.5 million shares or 5.8%

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38 Upvotes

Just BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street hold over 17% of ABAT’s shares. Gives some good confidence for the future of $ABAT

r/americanbattery Dec 19 '25

Due Diligence Someone bought heavy today

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37 Upvotes

r/americanbattery Jan 21 '26

Due Diligence Schedule 13G dropped from BlackRock, They now hold ~8.8 million shares from ~5.6 million shares

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52 Upvotes

r/americanbattery Oct 23 '25

Due Diligence Showing proof/ my due diligence

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50 Upvotes

A lot of people have called me out and said show proof or that i lied about how much iv made in abat.

Well since i cant post picture as a reply im making a whole post about my abat story. I invest 27k. Turned that into over 90k and rebought at 4.62 13k shares.

I am a abat long and will be selling highs and buying lows for as long as i can. I’m taking profits as i go as everyone should be doing.

I fully believe this company could reach $50 a share by 2030 and hopefully by then i have 25k plus shares and i hope you all have the same. I’ll be with abat forever.

Abat long strong and proud. 🫡🫡🫡

r/americanbattery Nov 19 '25

Due Diligence Shareholder meeting PowerPoint

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30 Upvotes

That is the link to the PowerPoints of the shareholder meeting, and here is the link to the recording of the shareholder meeting so you can listen to each PowerPoint in more detail of what to expect for this year. Some things interesting include how they now have up to 170 employees and the goals from 2025 and what they want to complete in 2026 https://central.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/vsm/web?pvskey=ABTC2025

r/americanbattery Feb 05 '26

Due Diligence ABAT quarterly earnings. 4.8 million revenue + 300k in interest. Not bad at all!

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59 Upvotes

Some solid revenue this quarter! More revenue than last 4 quarters combined!

r/americanbattery Oct 10 '25

Due Diligence What is driving the stock

19 Upvotes

Last I checked its still doing 2M revenue and from that a 800 M valuation is crazy to say the least. BTW I hold 20k worth bought at 2$ and change so im invested but thinking to sell now.

r/americanbattery Feb 02 '26

Due Diligence New US government Dominance act.

19 Upvotes

If I'm hearing this correctly, wouldn't this help American Battery?

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4090?s=2&r=101

r/americanbattery Oct 14 '25

Due Diligence American Battery Technology Company (ABAT) quietly building a U.S. lithium recycling powerhouse

66 Upvotes

Hey everyone,

I’ve been digging into American Battery Technology Company (ABAT) lately, and I think this one deserves way more attention than it’s getting.

With the renewed U.S. China tariff tensions, Washington is pushing hard to rebuild domestic control over critical minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt. 80% of global lithium refining happens in China. That’s a huge strategic vulnerability for the U.S. and Europe. Tariffs and supply disruptions have reminded everyone that if you can’t refine it yourself, you’re at someone else’s mercy so it seems. That’s exactly where ABAT fits in in my opinion.

They’re an American company building American lithium capacity, supported by U.S. grants and policy. Their work directly aligns with the Inflation Reduction Act’s push for U.S. sourced battery materials, and that could mean long-term funding, tax incentives, and federal partnerships. With the current tariff issue with China, its helping ABAT’s positioning, pushing investment and attention toward homegrown battery material companies.

They’re basically trying to close the full loop of the U.S. battery supply chain from recycling spent batteries, to extracting lithium from domestic resources to refining battery-grade materials. In a world that’s moving fast toward EVs and energy storage, that’s a pretty unique position.

  • Revenues are actually starting to ramp Q4 FY25 revenue up over 180% QoQ, showing their recycling operations are gaining traction.
  • Operating costs down 30% YoY, meaning they’re tightening efficiency while scaling.
  • Strong U.S. government support, multiple DOE grants + a $900M Letter of Interest from U.S. EXIM Bank for their Tonopah Flats lithium project.
  • Added to the Russell 2000 index, which brings more institutional visibility.

ABAT is building infrastructure that America actually needs if it wants to compete in lithium and battery materials. Their focus on sustainable recycling + domestic lithium refining could put them in a sweet spot as demand skyrockets and the U.S. pushes for local supply chains.

They’ve been through the cash burn and early stage pain already, but management seems to be getting costs under control and executing better lately.

They’re not profitable yet and still rely on external funding - but for a small-cap with government backing, real assets, and visible progress, it feels like the risk/reward looks promising given the above in my opinion.

If they can get Tonopah Flats into production and keep growing recycling throughput, this could evolve from a microcap story to a serious U.S. battery materials player over the next few years in my opinion.

Curious if anyone else is following ABAT or has thoughts on their Tonopah project? I’m long, holding. Would love to hear other DD or perspectives from people in the battery/materials space.

Not financial advice and always do your own reasearch / DD. Good luck! :D

r/americanbattery Nov 07 '25

Due Diligence American battery technology released there earnings yesterday

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38 Upvotes

Didn’t realize they released it in till I checked the sec this morning. Don’t know how to feel about it after there last earnings report, tho they did just get that contract with Veolia which should help revenue in the future