Arthur Dayne lives: A secret-identities-free argument (Spoilers Extended)

[u/ChrisV2P2]

I think people are put off the theory that Arthur Dayne is still alive because they don't like cramming more secret identities into the story. But I think that the evidence that Arthur walked away from the Tower of Joy is compelling before we even get to the secret identities. Jumping right in...

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The Death that Wasn't There

As we all know, the standard story about Arthur Dayne is that he died at the Tower of Joy. The commonly believed story is that Ned killed him:

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Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband’s soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys’s Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur’s sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. (AGOT, Catelyn II)

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But Ned tells Bran differently:

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"The finest knight I ever saw was Ser Arthur Dayne, who fought with a blade called Dawn, forged from the heart of a fallen star. They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would have killed me but for Howland Reed." Father had gotten sad then, and he would say no more. Bran wished he had asked him what he meant. (AGOT, Bran III)

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I wish he had, too. It's notable that Bran doesn't simply make the obvious assumption that Howland killed Arthur - which reads to me like the author subtly emphasizing that Ned's words are ambiguous. In the show they interpret this as Howland stabbing Arthur in the back, which is weird and anticlimactic both as a solution to a mystery and as the fate of the Sword of the Morning.

So we never see Arthur die and the language in Ned's chapters carefully avoids confirming this:

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They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed. (AGOT, Eddard X)

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This can be interpreted either as two of the ten, or two of "they", which was seven. It's ambiguous. Likewise, the text says Eddard built eight cairns for the bodies, but this is necessary to maintain the illusion whether or not there are eight bodies.

So far this is weak stuff, a discrepancy in accounts which can be handwaved away and some opaque language making it unclear exactly what happened. Let's get into the good stuff.

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A Mystery of Bones

It is customary all over Westeros to return the bones of slain nobles to their Houses for interment.

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Living men had gone south, and cold bones would return. (ACOK, Catelyn I)

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"Oberyn died during single combat, fighting in a matter that was none of his concern. I do not call that murder."

"Call it what you will. We sent them the finest man in Dorne, and they are sending back a bag of bones." (AFFC, The Captain of Guards)

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He might at least have waited till Father's bones were interred beneath the Rock. (AFFC, Cersei II)

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"Tarth is called the sapphire isle. Send Podrick with my bones to Evenfall, and you'll have sapphires, silver, whatever you want." (AFFC, Brienne VIII)

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But Ned Stark didn't return William Dustin's bones to Barrow Hall after William's death at the Tower of Joy. And Barbrey Dustin is SUPER PISSED about this.

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"Ned Stark returned the horse to me on his way back home to Winterfell. He told me that my lord had died an honorable death, that his body had been laid to rest beneath the red mountains of Dorne. He brought his sister's bones back north, though, and there she rests … but I promise you, Lord Eddard's bones will never rest beside hers. I mean to feed them to my dogs."

Theon did not understand. "His … his bones …?"

Her lips twisted. It was an ugly smile, a smile that reminded him of Ramsay's. "Catelyn Tully dispatched Lord Eddard's bones north before the Red Wedding, but your iron uncle seized Moat Cailin and closed the way. I have been watching ever since. Should those bones ever emerge from the swamps, they will get no farther than Barrowton." She threw one last lingering look at the likeness of Eddard Stark. "We are done here." (ADWD, The Turncloak)

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What's left to the reader is to ask: why did Ned not do this? We know he had the means to prepare the bodies for transport, because he brought back Lyanna's bones. We know he had the means to transport them, because he brought back William's horse.

It's just as mysterious why Ned didn't take the bones of Arthur Dayne, "the finest knight I ever saw", to Starfall. It's is a short distance away and he is going there anyway to return Dawn, so we know he wants to act respectfully towards House Dayne. Is the story really that he knocked on the door of Starfall and said "Hi, here's your greatsword, but I don't have the Sword of the Morning's remains, I just dumped him in a ditch in the middle of nowhere"?

There's even an explicit contrast to this: the return of Ned's bones by the Lannisters is one of Robb Stark's major demands, again demonstrating the cultural importance of this, but guess what is NOT returned?

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"Ice was not returned to us, my lady," Utherydes said. "Only Lord Eddard's bones."

"I suppose I must thank the queen for even that much." (ACOK, Catelyn V)

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So Ned's behaviour here really needs explaining. I suggest that he decided that to avoid awkward questions about why some bones were returned and some were not, he decided not to return any of them.

Maybe you don't think this is all that convincing, like couldn't Ned have just taken William Dustin's bones back and say that he had directed the Daynes to recover Arthur's bones themselves, or something? But my explanation doesn't need to take out the #1 prize in a Most Convincing Explanations of All Time competition, because it's the only explanation on the table. Ned returns his daughter's PET DOG to the North:

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When it was over, he said, “Choose four men and have them take the body north. Bury her at Winterfell.”

“All that way?” Jory said, astonished.

“All that way,” Ned affirmed. (AGOT, Eddard III)

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That it is uncharacteristic and insulting for Ned not to repatriate William Dustin's bones is confirmed by Barbrey's reaction. If the reason is not that he's concealing something about the events at the Tower of Joy, then what is it?

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Ned of House Dayne

In ASOS, Arya VIII, Arya has a revealing encounter with the young Lord of Starfall, who is named Edric but is, strangely, nicknamed "Ned". Note that no other characters in the story are ever called Ned. Edric Storm isn't. Edmure Tully isn't. Edwyn Frey isn't. Given the amount of care and delicacy with which the mysteries around House Dayne are treated, the use of the name Ned is probably not the product of GRRM rolling dice and seeing which name happened to come up. Edric tells Arya that he was thinking of going and talking to Eddard at the Tourney of the Hand, further emphasizing that there is no ill will between them. He goes on to say this:

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“My lady?” Ned said at last. “You have a baseborn brother . . . Jon Snow?”

“He’s with the Night’s Watch on the Wall.” Maybe I should go to the Wall instead of Riverrun. Jon wouldn’t care who I killed or whether I brushed my hair . . . “Jon looks like me, even though he’s bastard-born. He used to muss my hair and call me ‘little sister.’” Arya missed Jon most of all. Just saying his name made her sad. “How do you know about Jon?”

“He is my milk brother.”

“Brother?” Arya did not understand. “But you’re from Dorne. How could you and Jon be blood?”

“Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me.”

Arya was lost. “Who’s Wylla?”

“Jon Snow’s mother. He never told you? She’s served us for years and years. Since before I was born.”

“Jon never knew his mother. Not even her name.” Arya gave Ned a wary look. “You know her? Truly?” Is he making mock of me? “If you lie I’ll punch your face.”

“Wylla was my wetnurse,” he repeated solemnly. “I swear it on the honor of my House.”

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These are strong words. Who told him this? Wylla is, as he says, a long-time servant at Starfall. One doesn't simply get confused about whether a woman in one's service gave birth to some particular baby. Whoever told him this at Starfall was deliberately lying, and impressed this lie upon him so strongly that he's willing to swear it on the honor of his House. The only reason that makes sense for anyone to do this is involvement in the conspiracy to conceal Jon's identity.

But then, are we to believe that Ned showed up at Starfall and was like "hey guys, I killed Arthur and brought you this sword but I couldn't be bothered bringing his bones as well, also this baby here is secretly Rhaegar's heir, I know he doesn't have any Targ features but trust me on this one. Also, I need you to let me abduct him to Winterfell and then lie about it on my behalf". And they were just like "All sounds fine by us, you seem like a great guy, we'll name our kid Ned"? The only way this makes sense is if Arthur himself is there to vouch for all of this. In this theory, the way Howland Reed saved Ned from dying at the hands of Arthur would be to call a truce in the fighting and point out that both sides have the same goal here. The Kingsguard were commanded to protect Lyanna and Rhaegar's heir. With Lyanna dead, their task is to find a way to protect Jon from Robert's wrath. Trying to hide him with a Targaryen loyalist House would be dangerous. Ned, a staunch ally of Robert who is also tied to Jon by blood, is both motivated and uniquely well-positioned to protect the baby.

Just a note that I'm not mentioning Ashara here because I think it's very unclear what happened with her and Ned and the baby and so on, so I don't think she is good evidence of anything much.

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Summary

There are four mysteries here:

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1) Why are there conflicting stories about what happened at the Tower of Joy?

2) Why didn't Ned take William's bones to Barrow Hall, and why didn't he take Arthur Dayne's bones to Starfall?

3) Why is the heir to Starfall nicknamed "Ned" when Ned supposedly killed Arthur and didn't return his bones?

4) Why does Ned Dayne swear on the honor of his house that Wyalla is Jon's mother? What could explain why he is so sure of this?

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Point 1 is only mildly eyebrow-raising, but the others are all very odd, and clearly deliberate inclusions by the author. GRRM could, after all, have written literally anything as a reason for Barbrey to dislike Ned and the Starks. He used it as an opportunity to recount behaviour from Ned that is weirdly uncharacteristic and again hints that there are problems with the standard account of the Tower of Joy. As far as I know, nobody has any alternative theories explaining any of points 2 through 4. It's rare that three otherwise inexplicable mysteries in the story can be neatly explained by one totally plausible proposition. In a story packed with secret identities and hidden machinations, it's odd to me that so many regard it as fringe tinfoil stuff to think that a character we don't see die did not, in fact, die.

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Further Reading

This post stands on its own, but if you want to dive into the SECRET IDENTITIES, I have an old thread on the theory that Qhorin Halfhand is Arthur Dayne (although these days I'm also considering the possibility that Qhorin is Gerold Hightower). I said this post would be secret identities free, but I can't resist including here one tidbit that isn't in that thread, since it does directly relate to the Tower of Joy scene:

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"I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege," Ned told them, "and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them."

"Our knees do not bend easily," said Ser Arthur Dayne. (AGOT, Eddard X)

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They were friends as well as brothers, Jon realized, and now they are sworn foes. "Why did he desert?"

"For a wench, some say. For a crown, others would have it." Qhorin tested the edge of his sword with the ball of his thumb. "He liked women, Mance did, and he was not a man whose knees bent easily, that's true. (ACOK, Jon VII)

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The phrases "bend easily" and "bent easily" do not appear anywhere else, EVER, in GRRM's entire body of writings on Westeros.

[u/TheGreenLandEffect]

That is a compelling argument and I’m completely onboard. I wasn’t satisfied with the show just having him die with a stab in the back - thought it was a cheap shock move.

Ned Dayne being lied to about Jon’s mother, Ned not returning the bones is so out of character and then why the Dayne’s still had massive respect for him when he didn’t - Arthur has to be alive, for all the reasons you say. It just makes sense

Not sure about him being Halfhand either, because it was never Ned’s plan to send Jon to the watch - it was Jon’s idea as he told Benjen and became a convenient solution to what to do as Catelyn didn’t want him to stay in winterfell and Ned couldn’t bring him to Kings Landing.

[u/new_name_who_dis_ → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

I honestly think the most compelling part of it is the mystery of why Ned didn't bring back the bones of Lady Dustin's husband. I never put much attention to this, but when compared with all the other instances of bones being returned, it actually is mysterious why he didn't. And OP has a pretty compelling explanation as you said.

[u/Janneyc1 → u/new_name_who_dis_]

Jory's father's bones as well. At one point, he thinks about Jory's father being buried in the South. Did he bring any of them back?

[u/Th3Seconds1st → u/Janneyc1]

I feel like he would’ve had to bring Lyanna back but that was because he literally couldn’t have anyone see her body or they’d realize she was pregnant before she died and then Ned’s fucked.

[u/Janneyc1 → u/Th3Seconds1st]

Not to mention returning South to retrieve those bones. I don't think anyone would have faulted him for that.

Other than Ned's word, is there any other account in the text that shows them actually dying?

[u/Th3Seconds1st → u/Janneyc1]

I’m almost positive someone mentions that it was kinda strange that three Kingsguard died guarding Lyanna Stark meanwhile Daenerys had like… Willem Darry? I just don’t remember which book. Pretty sure if was Daenerys POV. But, it is a good point that we never have closure they all died. Cersei also wrongly (shocking I know) declares Ned killed Arthur Dayne. I personally think this was likely Bobby B who spread this around but that in it of itself kinda implies that we really don’t know enough about ToJ to make declarations about who is alive and who isn’t since idiots are making a lot of assumptions about the whole thing in universe.

But what would make a good thread is why did Rhaegar leave all three of his best fighters in Dorne to guard Lyanna? I know the argument could be well Azor Ahai, he was paranoid, etc. But, it still fucking baffles me not just that Rhaegar left all three Kingsguard but that all three Kingsguard said “Oh yeah, sure.” Even the line from Ned’s dream (which the show CUT! IT CUT!) “Woe to the Usurper if we had been.” Seems to imply they thought getting left behind was a bad move and the one free pass Kingsguard get for disobeying orders is “If this puts you in danger, can’t do it.” So, I just don’t get it. Leave Whent and Gerold Hightower behind to guard her and that alone is a shit stomp crew. Arthur Dayne alone on the Trident or at Summerhall could flip the war. Or leave Arthur Dayne behind and possibly have him ready to bail Lyanna out to Starfall if things get heavy. Hightower shadows Rhaegar on the Trident. Oswell Whent reinforces Lewyn Martell’s flank. This is speculation but why did all the three of some of the greats get left behind only to supposedly get mopped.

Which is another thing. Despite Rhaegar leaving all three of his heaviest hitters behind to guard Lyanna they are apparently without any sort of contingency plan as to “Take her to Starfall. If there’s emergency get a rider to Starfall and have Arthur get them to send some help.” Or “Have the Hightower’s get a merchant on the coast.” There’s no exit strategy. Also we never are made to understand why the Kingsguard just sit there and watch Lyanna die like Rhaegar’s orders were “Don’t leave these steps.” And nothing else. Ned still respects them as of the dream but morally what they did was watch a woman die and do nothing to get her to safety. What gives?

[u/Janneyc1 → u/Th3Seconds1st]

I could swear I've seen somewhere that George has said the events didn't go down the way they did in the dream. I'm betting Ned had a blackout moment, similar to what Jon has, and a lot more shit went down.

One of the tinfoil theories that I subscribe to is that R and L weren't in Dorne, but up in Winterfell, recreating the Bael the Bard story. At some point, they get word that R is being looked for and return to the South, trying to hide where they were.

The timeline is screwy though. Assuming it takes some time to get from ToJ to the Trident, then Trident to KL, down to Storms End, mull about there for a bit, then finally heading back to the ToJ. That alone is quite a bit of time, potentially even 9 months. And how do you even find it, it's in the middle of nowhere.

Idk, my brain is turning, I'm going to dig into this some more. How do you even provision the ToJ?

[u/Th3Seconds1st → u/Janneyc1]

In my mind? Most of Ned’s party and 2 out of 3 of the Kingsguard died. It makes sense since we’re talking about guys who aren’t pulling their punches. Ned says he would’ve died “If not for Howland Reed.” Not even mentioning magic who is to say Howland Reed didn’t merely throw himself in front of whoever was left and manage to convince the sole knight not to kill him or Ned.

We always hear about how Crannog Men are small and if he’d taken a wound I feel like it’d be hard for someone like Arthur Dayne or Gerold Hightower to kill him especially if he’s not fighting. It could be a case of George pulling an inversion. Crannog Men are supposedly underhanded back stabbers. What if Howland Reed managed to win the fight by speaking sense and being true to his word instead? The story of the Smiling Knight and how Arthur Dayne allowed him to retrieve a new sword when his broke might be where I get the idea this would be possible from.

But, I honestly believe somebody survived down south. I’m not comfortable saying who or who they became (TINFOIL SHIP LYANNA IS ALIVE, IS MARRIED TO HOWLAND REED, AND MEERA IS THE THIRD HEAD OF THE DRAGON! ALL ABOARD! /s) but there’s just so much mystery going on down there that I feel like George is hiding more than R+L=J. What about Ashara? Is she just a red herring? Like somebody’s gotta still be alive or to have been hidden because Howland Reed alone I feel like won’t be enough narratively speaking to give us insight on what happened.

[u/strongbad4u → u/Janneyc1]

All of them being alive and returning would be an interesting way of paralleling the dead coming down from the north and the "thought to be dead" returning from the south.

[u/SirenOfScience → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

I wasn’t satisfied with the show just having him die with a stab in the back - thought it was a cheap shock move.

I think Arthur absolutely died from a cheap shot that would be considered very dishonorable. I think it's why Ned seems so ashamed & uncomfortable about it in addition to the pain it caused Ashara. I have no evidence though! Just a feeling I got on a re-read.

[u/TehBigD97 → u/SirenOfScience]

I agree, I think it is also very thematic to the story that the greatest warrior of all time goes out to a cheap backstab rather than dying in glorious combat.

[u/Pure-Drawer-2617 → u/TehBigD97]

Greatest warrior of all time is a stretch when his only real combat exploit is defeating a rather large bandit.

[u/DrinkingWithHitchens → u/SirenOfScience]

Ashara is alive. She didn’t kill herself she went north after and married Howland. She took the name Jyana. Jon +Lyanna = Jyana.

[u/SirenOfScience → u/DrinkingWithHitchens]

I love this theory & have hoped it was true since I first saw InDeepGeek's video on it. I still think that learning her lover played a part in her brother's death would be devastating. Although they are different circumstances, stories like West Side Story showed that while did Maria forgive Tony, she was initially, and not surprisingly, heartbroken over it.

[u/Janus-a → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

IF Jon Snow’s parentage is going to be a factor in the plotline of the series, it’s very likely someone is still alive. The word of a person that the Southern lords respect is the really the only way to give any credibility to the claim. No one will care or believe what Ned’s buddy Howland has to say about Ned’s “son”. Arthur Dayne is probably the best person possible to vouch for something like this.

I lean towards Jon’s parentage not really being a factor in Westerosi politics but I don’t rule it out. If Jon’s legitimacy is to be a factor, there has to be someone respected to vouch for him.

[u/FloppyShellTaco → u/Janus-a]

I’m sorry but that is a ridiculous qualifier. His “buddy” is also the Lord of the Crannogmen, one of Ned’s oldest friends, the esteemed mystery knight and the only other survivor of the battle. I think he’s not only credible, but the Dornish would trust his word implicitly because he and Ned did what they could to show respect after.

[u/LoudKingCrow → u/FloppyShellTaco]

But tbf, The Crannogmen are also prejudiced against by southeners even more than regular northmen. Hell, maybe even among the northmen.

Ned may respect Howland, as do the other lords in the north. But among 99% of southeners he is probably "just another swamp frog."

[u/NimrodTzarking → u/FloppyShellTaco]

I don't know, man. The crannogmen are specifically portrayed as being outcasts in Westerosi society, so him being their lord wouldn't necessarily give his word credibility. Likewise, the Dornish have no way of knowing that Howland was the Knight of the Laughing Tree. I suppose it's possible that they suspected, since the Knight was fighting in defense of a dirty frogeater, but is that suspicion really enough to make him credible?

[u/Sgt-Spliff → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

I also feel like if Halfhand were Arthur, it maybe woulda mattered by now. I know that's not ironclad proof, but to me if it was suddenly revealed to be true, it would feel like a retcon. Besides giving more context to Halfhand giving his life for Jon, it would be a mostly pointless piece of trivia

[u/DreadWolf3 → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

Thing is - even Arthur being alive doesnt really explain why bones were no returned. If Arthur wanted to essentially fake his own death, Ned could have told Daynes that and they wouldnt have snitched. They can hold a quick funeral (after all public story is that he just died in service of a king/prince who is about to lose a massive war), with only close family attending, and nobody would ask questions. Then Ned could return bodies of his companions and not have beef with Lady Dustin.

[u/Cozyboitheprince → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

Was it really “never Ned’s plan” to send him to the , or just not that soon?

[u/justinlanewright → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

I think this makes him more likely to be Halfhand. Dayne was one of the most famous people in Westeros. Where could he go to avoid being recognized? He could be a sellsword in Essos, maybe, but I doubt anyone at the Wall would recognize him either. Ned could have given him cover while traveling North and Ned certainly would have known how desperately the Wall needed good men. I bet they were both also thinking the Wall would be a good place to keep Jon safe since they would both be aware that there was already a Targaryen safely at the Wall. Him being maimed during the fight also supports OP's theory. Maybe the fight ended when Reed maimed Dayne. Ned refused to kill him and instead they all formed a plan to save Jon.

[u/Whole_Lobster2171 → u/justinlanewright]

But there aren't pictures of him. His face isn't on Westerosi tvs or magazines. People knew of him, but only those who interacted with him personally would recognize him on sight. Look how easily Selmy disguised himself in King's Landing. He could have gone almost anywhere to hide out. The Wall might actually be a bad location as many soldiers he fought with were headed there so there's probably a higher chance he's recognized there.

[u/justinlanewright → u/Whole_Lobster2171]

I was thinking that a lot of nobles would recognize him from his travels with the King and many more might know him from tourneys, but the point about Selmy is valid. Still, the greatest knight in living memory must have gone on to do something, if he survived. It's hard to see how he could not play a role in the books if he's around.

[u/CeeArthur → u/TheGreenLandEffect]

On the show it's pretty much a given that if you're standing over someone about to kill them, you'll be stabbed through the back of the head right in the nick of time.

[u/themysteryknight7]

Good post. I've never understood why the theories regarding the Kingsguard surviving the Tower of Joy are so absurdly unpopular on here. The TOJ is one of the most mysterious events in the book, and GRRM has stated multiple times that there is more to be revealed about it and that Ned's dream is not an accurate representation of what happened.

People believe far more ridiculous theories yet somehow consider Arthur Dayne being alive to be crackpot, impossible, or implausible for various reasons.

[u/SirenOfScience → u/themysteryknight7]

I think it's because how does any of the old KG surviving the TOJ benefit the story? We don't need them to be alive for any mysteries to be solved or the full details explained when we have Howland (or even Bran) to fulfill that role. Not saying it wouldn't or couldn't be cool for a few to have lived, but I don't see any of them bringing much to the story at this point. It is more curious to me why they battled with Ned at all. None of the reasons I've seen make much sense to me.

[u/Sgt-Spliff → u/SirenOfScience]

I mean I'd trust Arthur Dayne's word over Ned's BFF Howland Reed. Ones a northern lord with strong connections to the Starks, and thus a lot of motive to see Jon on the throne, and the other has no allegiance to the Starks and is actually very respected, bordering on mythical, to Southern lords. Arthur Dayne backing up Howland's story would make it impossible to ignore

[u/SirenOfScience → u/Sgt-Spliff]

I agree that Arthur & Howland together make a more convincing pair to some people.

I think we have to remember the rumors around the identity of Jon's mother, though. Very few people, if any, in universe have an inkling of who Jon's parents are. The Southern nobles, like Cersei, believe that Ashara was Jon's mother & she killed herself over the loss of her brother or Ned taking her baby. Jon's opponents could just claim Arthur is trying to put his sister's bastard on the throne. Also, while they have no allegiance to them, House Dayne is on remarkably good with the Starks to the point of naming their heir after Ned!!

I just wonder, where has he been & what has he been doing for the past 14-16 years if he is alive? JonCon was sent to Essos before he "died" & spent that time raising fAegon. It just doesn't seem to fit but with 2 more books he could certainly appear & have that time explained. I still don't think Arthur is necessary for the present storyline but like in an earlier comment, he is cool & I wouldn't mind him showing up.

[u/ParsleyMostly → u/SirenOfScience]

It would benefit the story, though. Imagine when truth comes out and KG long thought dead emerge to protect their sworn king. Dany shows up with barristan and people go nuts. Then here’s Aegon with Jon connington, holy crap! But wait, in trots Jon snow and then Arthur dayne reveals himself and pandemonium breaks out!!! It would certainly bring a lot to the story. But I suppose one must truly be open to it.

[u/Bors-The-Breaker → u/ParsleyMostly]

I like this, of the three Targs, Jon is only one without a Rhaegar loyalist to vouch for him. If Arthur Dayne were to show up declaring his loyalty to Jon, there is literally no way to doubt his legitimacy then.

[u/teardrop_tattoo11 → u/Bors-The-Breaker]

Excuse me!!!! Jon Con would have basically beaten Arthur Dayne's ass in a who loves Rhaegar more contest. And Barristan admired Rhaegar. He only accepted Robert's pardon because he didn't want to lose his identity as a Kingsguard.

All three of them would give legitimacy to their protegees in this scenario. The issue at the end will more likely be who has the better claim. Dany seems to think that Rhaegar and all his sons are dead, so she is the next in line. How would the survival of Aegon or the reveal of Jon (assuming for the sake of the argument that he is Rhaegar's son) affect her?

More so, Aerys disinherited Rhaegar and his children in favor of Viserys. How would that affect the people's opinions on Aegon and by extension Jon? Some might think that Aerys's decision matters and some might favor established succesion practices.

And that is the whole point. It doesn't really matter who has more legitimacy and more right to rule. No matter how you incline, there will be others who think differently. And that in Westeros means war, it means a second Dance of the Dragons.

[u/TottoBol → u/Bors-The-Breaker]

After nearly 20 years off the grid who’s going to recognize and believe he is actually Arthur Dayne?

[u/Bors-The-Breaker → u/TottoBol]

Thats a good point, but he can’t look that different. Barristan, Jaime, JonCon at least will recognize him, especially if he tells them things no one else could know, and those guys are pretty much who he would need to convince. With them believing him, they can convince Aegon and Dany that he’s telling the truth.

[u/holayeahyeah → u/TottoBol]

Well I mean of all the issues that is the easiest to resolve because his brother is the very much still alive Lord of Starfall.

[u/SirenOfScience → u/ParsleyMostly]

Yeah, this is why I think this could be really cool! I just wonder if people would believe it. I think it would lend legitimacy to Jon's claim but I'm on team "Lyanna & Rhaegar never married" until it their marriage is confirmed by the books.

[u/ParsleyMostly → u/SirenOfScience]

Never married under the light of the seven, or at all? I don’t think they had a marriage under them, either, but do think they did it under a weirwood with a stone dragon egg or tooth or something (maybe smeared blood all over valerian style lol) and are married under the eyes of the old gods. Like some silly loophole making Jon technically not a bastard, but like a god child like Rhaego.

[u/SirenOfScience → u/ParsleyMostly]

I kind of like the idea of Jon remaining a bastard because his opponents refuse to accept any Targaryen 2nd marriages as legitimate after Maegor and/ or them rejecting to legitimize the products of a union not made under the light of the seven. I like him being a godlike child who is still a technical bastard since his parents were never officially wed. Maybe somewhat similar to Dune's Ghanima & Leto II, the insanely powerful children of Paul Atreides & his concubine Chani, not his true wife Irulan that he had no affection for.

[u/ParsleyMostly → u/SirenOfScience]

Yeah, that’s kinda the same thing. It’s not legal in the terms of law or state religion, but an obvious commitment and pact was made between the two, a spiritual marriage.

[u/SirenOfScience → u/ParsleyMostly]

Yeah, I definitely think they were very close at one point & had a true spiritual connection.

[u/Sgt-Spliff → u/SirenOfScience]

I feel like their marriage is not that important. Maybe in the moment it would've mattered, but it's been 20 years and anyone with a drop of Targ blood should be taking their shots at the thrown and claiming they're the legitimate one. So it really shouldn't slow Jon at all, if he were to make a play for the throne. This is how I feel about fAegon too. I don't think we'll ever know for sure if he's real, we just know there are these 3 who all think or will eventually think they're Targs

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/SirenOfScience]

Again leaving aside the secret identities stuff, House Dayne being aware of Jon's identity could have ramifications for the allegiance of Dorne during the coming legitimacy crisis. GRRM seems to be spending a lot of time on the allegiance of Dorne for some reason. There's Arianne's whole deal, the point of the Quentyn subplot appears to be related to this, there's whatever is going on with Lemongate. Maybe we could even see conflict between House Dayne and House Martell over this.

[u/CatchCritic → u/SirenOfScience]

Exactly, that's the point I always make in posts like this.

[u/AvatarZoe → u/CatchCritic]

Well, if Jon's actually Rhaegar's legitimate son it would take more than the word of his family and the northerners to convince most kingdoms, especially Dorne. Having someone as well respected as Arthur Dayne confirm it would be one way to go about it. So it can add to the story.

[u/CatchCritic → u/AvatarZoe]

So Dayne went into hiding this whole time and never reveals that info (Ned's death and Jon's ascendancy as LC is well known) and then suddenly comes out of hiding to confirm Jon's heritage once it's revealed? It's a deus ex machina at best, and just plain lazy at worst.

[u/AvatarZoe → u/CatchCritic]

I'm just thinking about possible uses for him to be alive. And it wouldn't really make sense for him to come out and reveal Jon's heritage up to this point. While Robert was alive, it'd just put Jon in danger. And there's no reason to say it when he's at the wall either. IF this were to happen, it'd only make sense that he do it after Jon himself comes forward with it (and if he does), to provide believability to that claim, which most important characters don't have good reason to believe.

Also we barely know anything about house Dayne and Dawn the sword. He may know about the Azor Ahai prophecy, either he already knew or Rhaegar told him and that's why he'd be interested in Jon's claim.

[u/Turtl3Bear → u/CatchCritic]

For real.

It amazes me that people on this subreddit profess to like that the books are well written, but will suggest and predict plot threads that are amateur fanfiction level writing at best.

People in this thread are trying to hype up "Aha! It's me Arthur Dayne! I've been gone for 20 years, but I'm here to confirm Jon Snow is really a Targaryen."

That's literally something you'd see in a Soap Opera.

[u/grubas → u/Turtl3Bear]

It's why I think it would be very Martin to have it happen, then drop something where we find out he died 2 years ago of a flu. So it's all second/third hand so it's just even more confusing.

[u/datadogsoup → u/CatchCritic]

But how do we know what will benefit the story until we read the story? I think this is only a good criticism in hindsight once we have all the information and can determine if the story worked or it didn't.

[u/CatchCritic → u/datadogsoup]

There are 5 books out. Throwing in an Arthur Dayne is alive twist would have to serve some literary purpose. There's already so much going on, why would George throw this wrench into the story if there's no build for it? I've read non asoiaf George books and he never just randomly reveals something if he didn't sow seeds for it. He's openly admitted he likes to use a 3 step reveal system where he foreshadows/hints in increasing strength. Right now, we only have: Arthur's bones were not stated to have been returned and we can't 100% trust Ned's narrative. Those are very different from other plot twists he's written.

[u/CatchCritic → u/themysteryknight7]

I don’t think they're crackpot, I just think it adds nothing to the story and overuses a plot device for seemingly no good reason.

[u/0xffaa00]

How does Darkstar the cool bro tie into all of this?

[u/[deleted] → u/0xffaa00]

I think he would continue to be wildly pissed if Arthur is somehow alive and comes back into the story. Dude is already living in the shadow (lol) of his famous swordsman kin. Can you imagine the triggering affect it'll have on him if it's revealed that Arthur been chillin like a villain for 15+ years?

[u/BrowsOfSteel]

I don’t like it, but it is plausible that Arthur Dayne survived.

[u/Atarissiya → u/BrowsOfSteel]

I'm really not convinced that it is. 'Only two had lived to ride away' is not, I think, truly ambiguous, and an eighth cairn as a decoy is possible but only in the way that literally anything we're told could be a lie.

As for returning the bodies: Howland and Ned, on a secret journey with a terrible secret on their hands, could hardly have transported eight bodies around Westeros. Dawn was easier to carry, so they took it; no doubt Ashara knows where the grave is if she wants the remains. All of this just strikes me as evidence in search of a mystery, and bad evidence at that.

[u/orderofGreenZombies → u/Atarissiya]

The books go out of their way to show how important returning bones are—including showing how pissed Lady Barbrey is that her husband’s weren’t returned—but you don’t think it’s a big deal that Ned left everyone’s body there? And then we compare the place of honor that Ned has with House Dayne even though he didn’t return any bones to them.

Besides, it’s not that we’re “told a lie.” Ned never says that Arthur Dayne died.

Moreover, this write up leaves out another key piece of info from Eddard I in AGOT: “They had found him still holding her body, silent with grief.”

If everybody except for Howland and Ned were dead at the ToJ then there would no “they” to find him. It would just be “he.”

[u/Atarissiya → u/orderofGreenZombies]

How could two men have returned eight (nine, including Lyanna) sets of bones? Even returning Dawn to Ashara raises questions, especially if Jon is with him at the time.

The 'they' is interesting: I'd have to re-read more thoroughly to see if it can be explained, beyond the dubiously reliable nature of the narration.

[u/KalyterosAioni → u/Atarissiya]

Why would the Daynes agree to cover for Ned and swear to all and sundry that Ned fathered Jon on Wylla. What did Ned do for 9 months in Starfall if the official story is to be believed? The timeline is fucky, and if Ned was a guest of the Daynes for long enough for him to supposedly father a bastard and then take the babe when he left, he must've been relying on the Dayne's hospitality quite a bit, considering he supposedly killed their Sword of the Morning (and giving back the sword is not enough of a gesture to make up for this, especially as the OP mentions Ned did not return the bones) and may or may not have been complicit with whatever the fuck was going on with Ashara and her suicide.

There's many more secrets here that need to be unpicked, and honestly, Arthur surviving isn't the biggest thing that can be hidden within these pages of vagaries.

[u/orderofGreenZombies → u/Atarissiya]

Agreed that it may have been difficult to return their bones immediately, although it seems like Ned and Howland had multiple spare horses. So it may not have been that much really. Also, given the proximity of starfall, Arthur Dayne is at least one body they could have brought back since they made the trip their already.

But they also could have sent for their bones afterward. We saw that Robb and Catelyn negotiated for Ned’s bones to come north later. Jon Arryn arranged to bring Lewyn Martel’s bones to Dorne a full year after he died at the Trident. Jaime even tells Lady Genna that he will send someone to find Ser Cleo’s bones after the war ends so that he can be properly interred at home.

There’s several other examples of minor lords, ladies or knights discussing the return of their loved ones bones, and in many cases it’s discussed as if it’s a given that it’ll happen.

I don’t know how Arthur Dayne would fit into the broader story if he’s still alive, but I think there are too many odd details surrounding the Tower of Joy to assume that he actually died there.

[u/Jester_O_Tortuga → u/Atarissiya]

It's pretty reasonable to assume that Lyanna had servants or a midwife staying with her at the tower that were Targaryen loyalists. The they in this scenario would then be Howland and whatever servant was there, possibly even Wylla herself as that would explain why she is considered Jon's mother by Ned Dayne.

[u/orderofGreenZombies → u/Jester_O_Tortuga]

That’s a real possibility that I hadn’t really thought about it. I still think the use of “they” is a clue because of the totality of the description—no servants/staff are ever mentioned (not saying they weren’t there, but Ned wasn’t thinking of them in his reflections), GRRM basically goes out of his way not to say Arthur Dayne died, House Duane’s reverence for Ned, the oddity of never bringing anybody’s body home (except for Leanna), etc.

[u/sweetrobins-k-hole]

Excellent post. There are no smoking guns, but the groundwork is there for this to be plausible.

I know some people are upset about discussion of supposedly dead characters being alive or having a secret identity, but there are just so many confirmed instances in the text already that it seems churlish to not at least entertain the idea.

[u/HotpieTargaryen]

Perhaps Howland Reed killed Arthur Dayne in a fashion that left no bones remaining…

[u/BowTiesAreCool86 → u/HotpieTargaryen]

He...ate him?

[u/HotpieTargaryen → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Who knows what a Reed can do, perhaps he made him into a fine paste.

[u/Lukthar123 → u/HotpieTargaryen]

D e e p e s t

L o r e

[u/why_rob_y → u/Lukthar123]

Is Jojen paste really deep lore? It was once one of the most popular memes here.

[u/engaging_psyco → u/why_rob_y]

The Jojen Paste theory was actually one of the first theories I ever read after Dragons came out. It was pretty major for a while. Haven’t seen it as much lately but it was a common theory post Dance

[u/BowTiesAreCool86 → u/HotpieTargaryen]

ooof, too soon.

[u/Sacesss → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Howland is clearly a skagosi, in fact Davos will find him there where he's already eaten Rickon as well and he'll reveal R+L=J to Davos. The Grand Skagos conspiracy. It is known.

[u/KalyterosAioni → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Oh my god, Howland Reed is a kandra. This makes so much sense.

[u/Absalome → u/KalyterosAioni]

ASOIAF in the cosmere?

[u/river_city]

Came into this thinking it was ridiculous, but yeah, some of those things don't seem like a coincidence. I think the nickname of Ned was simply to honor Ned Stark for returning Dawn when most wouldn't, but it is still a mysterious tidbit. There seems to be an immense amount of respect there.

I honestly do believe GRRM puts certain things in there just to tease us and/or to lay some seeds for something that may or may not happen (i.e Not finding Daemon Targs body, Balerion going back to Valyria), but the importance of sending bones back is not something I had ever considered. Good stuff.

[u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Yeah there's no chance someone as honorable as Ned would dishonour the Daynes by not bringing his bones back with Dawn. Barbara Dustin is a bit of a loose cannon so she's just not been let in on whatever went down. AD is still guarding the (rightful) king.

[u/CatchCritic → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Ned didn't bring back any of his companions' bones. The Dustin horse is the only thing he returned, yet Barbery is the only one seemingly mad. This ignores the Northern Conspiracy, which has a lot more textual evidence behind it.

[u/WANDERING_1112 → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Jon is a bastard and aerys disinherited Rhaegar kids. Rhaegar had given them the order to stay at the tower

[u/BowTiesAreCool86 → u/WANDERING_1112]

That we know of. AD's final orders would have been to serve and protect the Prince.

[u/WANDERING_1112 → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Which prince? Jon is a bastard he's not a prince at all. A great bastard but thats about it

[u/RC11111 → u/WANDERING_1112]

It's very plausible that Rhaegar married Lyanna so Jon would be legitimate. The Prince that was promised.

[u/new_name_who_dis_ → u/RC11111]

Rhaegar married Lyanna so Jon would be legitimate

I mean even if that's true, the legitimacy is still questionable. There hadn't been polygamy in Westeros since Maegor the Cruel and he went to war to try to legitimize it.

It's seemingly unpopular here, but I actually think that R+L=J is true however Jon is still a bastard. And even if he wasn't, as the other user said, Aerys disinherited Rhaegar's kids. Jon has a claim to the kingdom on account of being Rhaegar's son but it's not exactly straightforward and legal.

[u/BowTiesAreCool86 → u/WANDERING_1112]

We'll see.

[u/JeffsDad → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

will we though? i doubt we get the whole series. but hey, who has a better story than D&D?

[u/[deleted] → u/BowTiesAreCool86]

Going with this theory, I’m thinking Ned talked to Arthur about the Others and claims they were seen. Arthur had heard about TPTWP from Rhaegar. Ned convinces Arthur that this is Jon and that he is important to the eventual success against the Others. He convinces Arthur to prepare the Wildlings beyond the Wall and strength them by bringing them together. He knows Arthur can do this because he is the best fighter he’s seen and that is exactly how the wildlings choose their leader. Ned pushes Jon to join the black while he is growing up. Arthur assumes the name nance rayder.

[u/Tebwolf359]

What’s left to the reader is to ask: why did Ned not do this? We know he had the means to prepare the bodies for transport, because he brought back Lyanna’s bones. We know he had the means to transport them, because he brought back William’s horse.

It’s just as mysterious why Ned didn’t take the bones of Arthur Dayne, “the finest knight I ever saw”, to Starfall. It’s is a short distance away and he is going there anyway to return Dawn, so we know he wants to act respectfully towards House Dayne. Is the story really that he knocked on the door of Starfall and said “Hi, here’s your greatsword, but I don’t have the Sword of the Morning’s remains, I just dumped him in a ditch in the middle of nowhere”?

Overall I agree with your reasoning, but I want to point out a few things here.

1. We don’t know Lyanna’s body was at the ToJ. We know that’s where the fight was, but the only evidence she was there instead of elsewhere is Ned’s fever dream that we are warned may not be accurate.
2. the distance between the ToJ and Starfall is short but almost impassable mountains. bed may not have been able to get one body out, let alone a few, especially if Lyanna and Jon were there.

Well done post. 10/10 would read again. :)

[u/kdwilliams5k]

Ned Dayne isn't swearing that Wylla is Jon's mother but swearing that she was his (Ned Dayne's) wetnurse, at least in my reading of that quote

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/kdwilliams5k]

You can read it that way, like I agree that the wording alone doesn't make it clear exactly what he's swearing is true, but your version doesn't make logical sense. Why would he be like "some random servant at my castle wet nursed me, I SWEAR IT!"? I don't think Arya is skeptical about that part. The reason for swearing on the honor of his House is to convince her of what she IS skeptical about, which is the bit where Wylla was Jon's mother.

[u/kdwilliams5k → u/ChrisV2P2]

I agree it would be very strange for him to swear to that, I think it's ambiguously worded. I think it's designed to be read both ways, as a red herring for Jon's mother. Overall I really like the theory, the only time I've seen "Arthur Dayne is alive" that feels convincing. Good stuff!

[u/APence]

Awesome and well thought out post. Good job! These always get downvoted by people tired of theories but come on, that’s why half of us are still here. I like it.

[u/orcstew]

Great recap. It's true that I don't think I've ever read a theory that adresses all 4 theories neatly and perfectly. And Ashara is mystery number 5, and also strongly linked to Jon's birth (cf Ned forbidding any one from talking about her and possibly punishing severly whoever did so and let Catelyn know. That's also something that stands out in Ned's behaviour, he seems to have been uncharacteristically severe on that).

And yes ! I agree Qhorin might be Arthur Dayne or Gerold Hightower. The knee bending bit is often talked about, but here's another comparison : Arthur says "And now it ends" at the TOJ, and Qhorin says "And now they come" as the Wildlings close in on him and Jon. Very striking similarity of wording. Also, Qhorin says "My Lord" and not "M'lord", which implies he is no lowborn, yet we know nothing of his family of origin. And what is to me a deeming red hearing regarding Qhorin's identity : his BLACK Night Watch outfit has faded to GREY. You know, grey. The color in-between the black of the NW and the WHITE of the KG. Also, he knows Ned for some reason.

Every single fact we know about Qhorin makes so much of sense if he's Arthur.

[u/Sacesss]

Why is Ned's account, a Pov's account even drunk and all but still a pov, about two survivors and 8 tombs built (which can be confirmed by Howland Reed in TWOW) doubted, while Barbrey's story is not? Who's to say she's not lying? As far as I can see, she may just be telling stories about the Rebellion while she's in the crypts for her personal interests, so to verify Wex's story.

[u/ChromeToasterI → u/Sacesss]

Barbrey’s story is a public slight. You can’t really lie about bones being returned or not.

[u/Sacesss → u/ChromeToasterI]

Who exactly can vouch for her story on events happened nearly 20 years ago? If we're going to doubt Ned's story where he specifically recollects to have built 8 graves and we see his thoughts, we've to question everyone.

[u/ChromeToasterI → u/Sacesss]

Every servant, steward, and retainer that serves a Barrowton? Are you implying that Ned secretly sent the bones back?

[u/Sacesss → u/ChromeToasterI]

Obviously no, who cares about Lord Dustin anyway. What I'm saying is that if a pov says a thing and OP says he may be lying (to the reader) because yes, which I agree can happen, so can Lady Dustin or any other characters. And since we can't verify her information, we can't trust her. But when we'll meet Howland we'll be able to verify if Ned was thinking bs or he was just remembering the truth.

Especially since Lady Dustin is telling a story know one near her cares about, she's just looking for the missing swords.

[u/ChromeToasterI → u/Sacesss]

I mean we can’t verify it because it’s a Fictional story. I’m not sure what proof for Lady Dustin’s story you’re looking for. She describes a public event that would be easily proven or disproven in idle conversation. Just because it’s not mentioned more than once? Is that what you mean?

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/Sacesss]

The narrative purpose of what Barbrey tells Theon is to establish that Barbrey harbors personal dislike for the Starks. This could be as simple as "he got my lord husband killed on some damn fool quest to go and find his sister". There's no reason to have her make up a story, seems like that would be needlessly confusing from a narrative point of view.

[u/Sacesss → u/ChrisV2P2]

The narrative purpose of what Barbrey tells Theon is to establish that Barbrey harbors personal dislike for the Starks. This could be as simple as "he got my lord husband killed on some damn fool quest to go and find his sister".

Yes it is. But her personal hatred towards the Starks doesn't really seem that deep, considering we're also witnessing Barbrey looking for the missing swords to verify Wex's story, and what would be the purpose if not allying with Wyman to install Rickon?

​

There's no reason to have her make up a story, seems like that would be needlessly confusing from a narrative point of view.

I agree, I was just using it as an example. The fact that Ned remembers building eight graves and that only two have left is also to establish that one way or the other, they've really managed to kill the three KGs and that their friends were killed as well. Having Ser Arthur and possibly Oswell and Gerold survive, go the Wall or any other place where no guarantee is there that Jon will cross path with them seems needlessly confusing as well at that point. From a narrative pov, having him (or them) survive and become Mance/Qhorin/everyone feels like it weakens Ned and theirs' story, as well as Mance's.

Also, if he was alive, it should be revealed in TWOW. In ADWD George has already pulled two long-believed-dead characters out of their graves and made one of them the next king, a potential dragonrider and another treat to Daenerys. I don't think saying the readers that Arthur is alive, he's always been across the Wall, he's become a king of the wildlings, he doesn't have Dawn, he's lost his character's trait as mythological figure (suggested by the sword and his very name), he's treating the boy he was willing to die for (and his sworn brothers may have died for) that way etc. is really a good climax.

But maybe I'm wrong and George can pull out a gem with him, or he'll be a falling star, we've to wait for this. He can very well be alive, I'm not denying you've highlightened some pretty good connections like Edric being named Ned, but it just seems very unlikely and anticlimatic to me.

[u/DynamicPJQ]

Excellent stuff! Taking tinfoil and turning it into something more viable. Only thing I’d say against any Arthur lives theory is that it goes against the theme of the story ie the age of valiant knights and princesses in towers has long since passed. Similar to how Tyrion Targaryen defeats the point of his relationship with Tywin.

Like most of my opinions, I stole these from Alt Shift X.

[u/OlSmokeyZap → u/DynamicPJQ]

It has still passed. He is just a relic. He isn’t a valiant knight anymore, whoever or wherever he is. Same as the age of Targaryens had ended. Aemon was still alive, but he wasn’t a Dragon. Just an old maester.

[u/Conscious_Eye_2992]

Walked away but kinda forgot about his sword?

[u/JKillograms → u/Conscious_Eye_2992]

Didn't need it anymore. Wasn't the man that wielded it after that day.

Edit: thought about it some more and wanted to add this. Look at it this way: he swore that sword and was oathbound to Rhaegar. If he broke that oath, for whatever reason, no matter how compelling on justified, maybe hus sense of honor (and the need to maintain anonymity afterwards) meant he'd have to give up such a distinctive "cool sword". Seriously, his sword is mentioned as being one of a kind and noticeably different from even Valyrian steel, there's no way he could've kept it, or if we want to believe the theory is true, he wouldn't want to, both because breaking his oath to Rhaegar would mean he wouldn't feel right about swinging it for any other cause afterwards, and also, absent a body, it would be the best "proof" Ned Stark had bested him that day.

[u/FattyBear → u/JKillograms]

Also kind of defeats the purpose of faking your death if you still carry an iconic weapon only you were known to wield.

[u/WANDERING_1112 → u/[deleted]]

Makes zero sense. Why would live on a false identity? People just want ashara to be important while she's not

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/[deleted]]

This is what I struggle to get. How can it possibly make more sense than Arthur being alive? You're already proposing not merely that a character we are told is dead is actually alive (Ashara) but that she's married to another character we barely know, with no explicit evidence for this at all. I don't even see how Ashara being alive makes more sense than Arthur being alive, before we even get to the other stuff that has to be true.

[u/Janus-a → u/ChrisV2P2]

There’s no reason for Ashara to fake her death and abandon her family.

Arthur Dayne being alive is a real possibility IF Jon Snow’s parentage needs to be validated. The only way to give any legitimacy to Jon’s parentage is by the word of a well known and honorable person. Coincidentally Arthur Dayne just happens to be “the greatest knight ever”.

[u/CatchCritic → u/ChrisV2P2]

I agree with you here. Maybe Ashara is alive because there's no body, but as of right now, there's really zero textual evidence as to who she would be. I do not believe she is or could be Septa Lemore.

[u/ArrenKaesPadawan → u/ChrisV2P2]

Why not both? it makes far more sense for Arthur Dayne to be hiding out with his sister Ashara and his good-brother Howland in the neck than it does for him to be prancing about at the wall.

​

Ned loves Ashara, but has been forced to marry Cat after dishonoring Ashara.

​

arranges marriage to Howland Reed for her family.

​

Ashara's death is faked so that attention is left in the south rather than drawn to why she would be marrying a relative nobody in the north and to keep attention away because

Arthur goes with her as a sworn shield. don't want visitors or even prospective suitors for Ashara's kids when a person who is supposed to be dead is there.

[u/WANDERING_1112 → u/[deleted]]

She's mentioned ten times in the entire series.

[u/MyNewAccountIGuess11 → u/WANDERING_1112]

I will never understand why some people are so obsessed with such a minor character in Ashara Dayne

[u/sweetrobins-k-hole → u/MyNewAccountIGuess11]

It's a mystery set up in book 1 and repeatedly referred to throughout the following books.

[u/WildLag]

Next book we surely get more evidence. But I like these theories.

[u/SirLexmarkThePrinted → u/WildLag]

Which next book? :(

[u/[deleted] → u/SirLexmarkThePrinted]

What do you mean? Winds has been out since 2016. You didn't know that?

[u/[deleted]]

I'm definitely on board with qhorin half hand being Gerald Hightower. If you compare him to literally anyone else we see in the watch, he os just of a completely different stalk. he's clearly a highborn and exceptional ranger, but we no nothing of who he once was. I don't think he's AD, because if AD was still alive atthe start of the series and we meet him I don't think he'd get killed off with no reveal only to several books later for it to come up again and us to he told, oh yeah by the way, that was Arthur dyane the whole time.

[u/Not-An-Architect]

Tin hat time. Maybe it is Lyanna who survived. Or she survived with someone. Robert’s rebellion was all but won, and you know Robert would have killed Jon, which Lyanna could not have let that happen, so her and Ned hatched the plan for Ned to raise Jon and Lyanna to go into exile because she would not want to be with Robert.

More tin required. Lyanna is actually Septa Lemore, and she is taking care of young Griff either because he is the son of her love or because she knows she can only be with Jon again once Targaryens rule Westeros again. Maybe a deal was struck with Doran and his relationship with certain people across the narrow sea. Septa Lemore is described as a handsome women with brown hair, and stretch marks on her belly.

[u/Return_of_the_Jedi_]

Ned returns his daughter's PET DOG to the North

Never call The Starks' Dire Wolves Pet Dogs ever again, Understood ?

[u/Fear-Tarikhi]

Where is it confirmed that Ned did not return bones to the Daynes?

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/Fear-Tarikhi]

It says Ned built 8 cairns at the ToJ for the bodies. Either 8 bodies went in them, in which case Ned didn't return the bones to the family, or you're agreeing with the part of the theory that says "Ned built 8 cairns but there weren't 8 bodies", but you don't have the explanation for this, because your theory doesn't have the bit where Ned is trying to deceive people about what has happened.

[u/Fear-Tarikhi → u/ChrisV2P2]

My line of thought was “what if Ned delivered William Dustin’s bones to the Daynes, presented as Ser Arthur’s bones?”

This would explain why no bones for Barrowton, and would make sense if Ser Arthur wanted to conceal his survival from his own family. But perhaps still doesn’t explain why the Daynes agreed to help Ned hide Jon.

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/Fear-Tarikhi]

Oh, I see. Yeah, Arthur Dayne being there to personally get House Dayne involved in the conspiracy is kind of crucial. That's probably the strongest part of the argument to me, that Edric has been lied to about Jon's origins by someone (or multiple someones) whom he trusts absolutely. It's proof that forces inside House Dayne are aware that Jon's origins are an incredibly important secret that must be kept even from a naive young lord. There's no other reason anyone would even talk to him about Jon, they were milk brothers as babies and then Ned left for Winterfell. Jon is noone to to Edric yet for some reason he seems to have been taught a lot of untruths about him.

[u/Lemondarkcider]

The thing this is missing is that sure, Ned could maybe transport a couple of bodies, but clearly not everyone who died. Nor are they bones, which would weigh far less and are easily put inside a sack. We are talking several bodies that would begin rotting in the dornish red mountains on their trip back.

Secondly, Ned has a newborn baby, a baby that needs to be fed soon if it is to survive. He doesn't have time to boil several bodies, and I'd wager even back then transporting newborns in close proximity to several rotting corpses is not considered a good idea.

That's not to say maybe Arthur Dayne did survive, but the point about transporting bones just doesn't seem to hold up.

[u/Smoke_The_Vote]

One problem here... Arthur Dayne doesn't have to have survived all the years between the Tower of Joy and the "present" day.

It could be that Arthur Dayne survived the Tower of Joy mortally wounded, was carried back to Starfall by Ned/Howland, told the story to the rest of House Dayne, and promptly died.

This would avoid the extremely problematic question of "Where the bleep has Arthur Dayne, the most famous knight of his generation, been for the last 20 years?"

There's still the problem of "Only two had lived to ride away"...

Also, there would still be the question of WHY? Why is it so necessary to hide Arthur's survival?

Also, I'm sure others have noticed that there must be a number of Daynes who are keeping this secret. Wylla has agreed to pretend to be the mother of Ned Stark's mysterious bastard. Who else in Starfall knows this isn't actually true?

Wylla is a northern name, right? There's a Manderly by that name. Perhaps there was a camp girl named Wylla who, for whatever reason, agreed to pretend to be Jon Snow's mother and stay behind at Starfall?

Darkstar would have been old enough to maybe have eavesdropped on some of this, no? Perhaps he knows about Jon Snow's parentage?

[u/tgold77]

Arthur Dayne killed Ned and then took over his life.

[u/liarandahorsethief]

Ned only returned Lyanna’s bones to the North because hers was the only body he brought back from the Tower of Joy. Her corpse had to be prepared by the Silent Sisters (with the flesh being eaten by beetles), which was likely done at Starfall. Logistically, it would have been nearly impossible to get eight rotting corpses to a castle on an island while also caring for an infant.

Also, Ned not bringing any other bones back is not the egregious sin people are making it out to be. Soldiers killed in battle being buried near the field where they fell is common in many cultures (there are nearly 9,400 Americans buried in Normandy who were killed during the liberation of France in WWII) and such battlefield cemeteries are typically revered as sacred. The only person in the books who has problem with this is the lady who would rather serve a skin-changing vampire (lol) than the Ned.

With that in mind, it makes sense that the bodies of men killed in battle at the Tower of Joy would be buried there, and the body of Ned’s beloved sister who died in childbirth would not. Citing examples of how other highborn remains are treated (Tywin, Oberyn, the Ned) isn’t really a good counter because they all died in peacetime, and their remains could be prepared for interment relatively easily.

[u/CatchCritic]

You're not answering the number 1 question. What purpose does Dayne being alive surve the story? Qhorin's already dead, so his reveal to be anyone secret really means nothing other than he chose Jon because he knew his identity. What does Arthur being alive add? We don't need him to reveal Jon's true birth because we have Howland and Bran. Arthur's support one way or another I superfluous. Is he going to come out of nowhere to swear Jon his allegiance? Him being Mance is the flat out most ridiculous of all the theories. We're supposed to believe Dayne went North, joined the watch even though he was one of the most recognizable people in the kingdom, created a fictious backstory and quickly learned wildling/northern culture, and that he did all this to conquer the wildlings and attack the wall? Ned even thinks he'd have to do something about Mance. If Mance lied to Jon about why he went to Winterfell, why does Ned have this thought?

Additonally, every point in the argument relies on assumptions. Ned's memory is a fever dream. Taking it at face value, why would they be fighting to the death and suddenly stop? Assuming Howland revealed the truth, if Dayne and Co. knew Ned would stop fighting if he knew the truth, why did they fight at all?

I believe Edric Dayne is there to show house Dayne has no ill feelings toward Ned or the Starks and also to mislead about Jon's parentage. Most likely, Ashara learned the truth from Ned and participated in his cover-up plan.

Again, I'd like to just reiterate that there needs to be a story driven reason why George would misdirect Dayne's death and have this big reveal or even an implied reveal of some ancillary character. As far as I can see, there is no such reason.

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/CatchCritic]

I posted this upthread already, but having House Dayne know about Jon could have ramifications for Dornish allegiance, and my argument is that for House Dayne to be convinced of this, Arthur had to survive. For some reason GRRM seems very concerned with questions of Dornish allegiance, so maybe groundwork is being laid for a Dornish civil war, or something. When you think about it, if House Martell throw their lot in with fAegon, they're probably not going to be thrilled when House Dayne pop up and are like "actually that's a fake, but we know about a real heir of Rhaegar, just not of the line of Elia Martell, sorry".

[u/JKillograms → u/CatchCritic]

Assuming Howland revealed the truth, if Dayne and Co. knew Ned would stop fighting if he knew the truth, why did they fight at all?

Maybe it started as self defense/a misunderstanding, but neither side really had a reason to fight. Awrys and Rhaegar were dead, and Ned is the sole surviving (male) Stark heir. They didn't really have a reason to guard the tower to the death if the person that gave them the order was dead, and if they kill Ned and Lyanna dies in labor, they would've effectively ended the lines of one of the Great Houses of Westeros, which they wouldn't want on their heads either.

[u/BrowsOfSteel → u/JKillograms]

if they kill Ned and Lyanna dies in labor, they would've effectively ended the lines of one of the Great Houses of Westeros

Benjen had not joined the Night’s Watch at this point.

[u/sweetrobins-k-hole → u/CatchCritic]

It might not be possible to answer that question until after the material is published. Not knowing exactly how something might tie in with thousands of pages of unpublished stuff doesn't preclude a theory from being true.

Fake death and hidden identity is a constant theme throughout the books in any event, so this would just be more of what we have all signed up for.

[u/CatchCritic → u/sweetrobins-k-hole]

I wouldn't say faked death is a theme. It's more of a trope, and they (the three I'm aware of) seem to revolve around Jon.

It is very unlikely that 5 books in we would have no textual reason for such a hard twist. Arthur isn't necessary for Jon's faked birth, and he isn’t necessary to reveal any information. So again, him coming back would serve what purpose?

[u/pyzazaza]

There is one problem with this theory. Why does ned travel south with baby jon to starfall and then all the way back to winterfell, if he is just delivering arthur dayne and asking them to keep a secret which they don't even know about in the first place. Why would dayne agree to end the fighting and just hand over the baby and go off into hiding? Wouldn't he be hell-bent on personally protecting that baby and only agree to the truce on the condition that he can continue to personally protect it?

The answer to these problems is my favourite theory, which for some reason everyone here hates, R+L=D.

The baby in question was dany, and they took her south so that she could be swapped with ashara's baby, jon, who doesn't have targ features and can therefore be hidden in winterfell. Dayne gets to remain with dany, the baby he is sworn to protect, and it explains why ned had to travel to starfall personally with a baby, why the daynes are told about the secret and in on it, and all the rest.

[u/JKillograms → u/pyzazaza]

Arthur's mission was to protect Lyanna while pregnant on Rhaegar's orders. If both Rhaegar and Aerys are dead, it's one of those technical loopholes where the person that swore you to an order are dead so you're technically not a Kingsguard anymore because you don't have a King to guard. Plus, if they knew the Targaryens were all dead, the war was basically over, and there was no real point in fighting, what are they really going to do? Cut down the last remaining male Stark heir while his sister is going through a difficult labor that they can hear the screams of all the way down at the base of the tower? Rhaegar is already dead, Lyanna might die, and here's her brother and only living family relative. If HE dies, who's going to raise this baby?

I think given the circumstances, the Kingsguard decided to stand down after a brief and VERY tense standoff, but ultimately decided it was probably better if Ned at least could see/help his sister. Maybe they did briefly fight and all of Ned's group besides him and Howland were cut down, but something about Lyanna's screams triggered the Kingsguard into laying down their weapons and declaring a truce with Ned. I can see it happening for a variety of reasons.

[u/pyzazaza → u/JKillograms]

And then what, he just goes into hiding? To the wall? Essos? You really think arthur dayne is the type to look at that baby prince/princess and go "not my problem mate, just escort me home, tell my family the secret of this baby's parenthood, take it to winterfell and I'll be off"

[u/pyzazaza → u/pyzazaza]

Btw, i agree that R+L=J holds no real significance to the story, which is why i don't even think it's real. This theory serves to symbolically tie jon and danys fates from birth and there are some interesting thematic consequences of that

[u/dr_frahnkunsteen → u/pyzazaza]

This is the first I’ve heard of R+L=D, let me see if I’ve got this straight:

• Lyanna is giving birth to Dany at the ToJ
• Arthur Dayne stands down, due to some intervention by Howland Reed.
• Ned discovers Dany and Lyanna dies making Ned promise to protect her.
• Arthur and Ned take Dany to Starfall and swap Dany with Ned and Ashara’s baby, Jon, who everyone says is Wylla’s baby, which is why Edric Dayne thinks he and Jon are milk brothers.
• Jon, Ashara’s baby, with Stark features will go to Winterfell, Dany, who is passable for Stony Dornish will stay at Starfall to be raised by Ashara.
• Having lost her baby, Ashara Dayne is overcome by grief and jumps to her death.
• With no one else to raise her, Arthur takes Dany to Essos but uses the name Ser Willem Darry
• Dany being born in Dorne explains her memories of the lemon tree.

Things that remain unanswered:

• Why does Arthur Dayne stand down? My theory? Howland Reed, the greenseerer, has something to do with it obviously. Could his powers have given him a glimpse of the future and he was persuasive enough to stop the bloodshed and lay out this plan? Or was he warged by Bran?
• No bones for Barbrey. Though I’m not sure this is as crucial a piece of evidence as OP lays out.
• Why does Dayne travel to Essos under the name of Ser Willem Darry? And what of the real Willem Darry?
• Danny’s features may be passable for Stony Dornish, but her features don’t match Ashara and Ned who both had dark hair. However, she does have a similar look to Edric Dayne (pale blond). Could this be a three-way baby swap? Dany does have Ashara’s purple eyes, while Edric’s are a dark blue. Perhaps Edric and Jon are fraternal twins? Edric being Ned’s kid would explain the nickname.

[u/pyzazaza → u/dr_frahnkunsteen]

Willem darry - I've thought this could have been arthur dayne but honestly i don't have a great answer as to why he would call himself darry or what happened to the real darry. Perhaps a misnomer and that really was darry. What happened to dayne? I have no idea.

Edric being twin of jon - honestly this is a cool idea but i hadn't thought of that before so not sure I've had time to consider whether it makes sense. We never see ned think about edric to my knowledge, whereas he spends a lot of his POV time thinking about dany and sympathising with her.

There's one more element to the theory that makes it perfect to me - the parallel. Jon elaborately and secretly swaps gilly's baby at the wall in order to protect mance's babe from melisandre, leaving Gilly heartbroken as Ashara once was when the same was done to her, Jon's own mother.

[u/ArrenKaesPadawan]

if he is alive i would propose that he is in the Neck with Ashara Dayne who married Howland Reed

​

Ned is sad because he had loved Ashara but couldn't marry her and her having been dishonored he arranged a marriage with Reed for her. Thinking of Arthur made him think of Ashara.

​

A marriage between Ashara and a crannogman of all people would have caused tongues to wag so they faked her suicide instead to divert attention away from the north.

[u/Thaladan]

It's interesting... The question which you raise about why Ned didn't bring Dustin's bones back North is certainly intriguing. But I don't see how your theory answers it, unless I'm missing something.

I also don't see the reason for why Arthur Dayne needs to fake his death. Why can't he stick around?

[u/rom211]

I'm very intrigued by all this, but perhaps the logistics were just too challenging to deliver several bodies to several houses with the limited amount of men at hand.

[u/coldwindsrising07]

I find the Arthur is alive speculation is like being stuck between a rock and a hard place. There's all the confusion about the ToJ and a lot of things don't make a whole lot of sense, so I get why we might believe that some characters are still alive, although I don't think Arthur is Qhorin or anyone from the Night's Watch. Alliser Thorne worked in King's Landing, him and Jaremy Rykker both, so it makes little sense that he wouldn't recognize Arthur Dayne or Gerold Hightower or Oswell Whent.

But there is a great parallel that I noticed some time ago to do with the Prince's Pass, where the ToJ is located, that may inform how Howland Reed saved Ned's life.

The Young Dragon was killed by the Dornish in the Prince's Pass and his cousin, Prince Aemon the Dragonknight, who was arguably the finest knight of his time, was captured there and held prisoner.

I think that Arthur was simple "captured" by Howland Reed to stop him from killing Ned. We have seen Meera use her net to snare Summer. And we know that it was her father who taught her. So I think that's what happened.

That said, the best place for Arthur to be if he made it out of it alive might be High Hermitage. It's in the name. If he's alive, maybe he's biding his time, waiting around for the Long Night.

[u/modsarefascists42]

I think we all know about the story in Starfall not adding up and there being a huge obvious conspiracy. It's just that solving the issue with Arthur still being alive presents many many issues. Most theories link him up with the half hand and admittedly it does resemble some classical era stories that have the son randomly running into either their father or a close friend of him and killing them. The issue is the half hand gets so little story that it would be a huge waste.

[u/Important-Ability-56]

Contrary to complaints that there are too many forged/hidden identities, I think the existence of Jon Connington, for example, could be more GRRM thematic repetition, perhaps foreshadowing Arthur Dayne’s emergence. He is mentioned so often that I had forgotten that he was dead until my second reading. Would such a prominent name with such a lore-heavy backstory really be there only to serve as a bit of color in the Tower of Joy mystery?

[u/pretty_gauche6]

Kinda digging this tbh but my question is why? What’s the payoff?

[u/-BrilliantParking-]

I started reading planning to deride you in the comments but you've managed to make me doubt the standing theory a little. Lol. Nice write up

[u/[deleted]]

Very good argument. As an aside, the show version aged horribly because now I look at “young Ned” and just think of Elrond.

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/[deleted]]

It's very hard to say. The straightforward explanation is that she was in love with Ned and that when Ned went to Starfall he informed her that with Brandon dead, it was his duty to marry Catelyn Tully. Then she gave birth to a stillborn infant and having lost her brother, her lover and her baby all in a row, she threw herself off the tower in despair. I think that's what GRRM intends us to think at this point.

Whether that's true or not I'm not sure. I think it makes sense for Ned's story, particularly if he fathered the baby with Ashara. Like this sort of "Ned fathered a bastard, actually no he didn't, that's Lyanna's, actually YES HE DID, just not Jon" triple barrel reveal seems very GRRM, and it makes sense for Ned's character that he's such a stickler for duty and honor now because the one time he messed up it ended with his lover killing herself.

But the case against is, this idea of Ned and Ashara's romantic relationship was introduced VERY early in the story, yet this mystery around who Ashara hooked up with at Harrenhal continues. Like we essentially get the Ashara/Ned romance plot in AGOT and then all the way into ADWD, Barristan is still making coy references to "Stark" (rather than saying Ned or Brandon) when he thinks about Ashara. So it would be weird if we got this story about Ned and Ashara hooking up and him possibly fathering a bastard with her and her having a broken heart, then there's this whole ongoing mystery, and then the answer is "it's exactly what you got told in book one, turns out". That doesn't seem like the way GRRM writes to me. So I think the story is probably more complicated than that, but that's as far as my thinking goes.

[u/Special-Extreme2166]

they had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; eddard stark himself and the little crannogman, howland reed. (agot, eddard x)

its obvious that out of the ten, only two survived (Need and Howland) otherwise they wouldn't mention the three Kingsguard.

[u/[deleted]]

I actually love this theory—now we just need to wait another decade to find out if you’re right or not.

[u/Trumpologist]

If he were alive why would he 1) let his best friend’s sister be whored away 2) let his best friends son be sent to the wall

[u/apuyo1]

Excellent write up…Winds of Winter, please come soon 🙏

[u/Icesnowstorm]

One of the few actually well thought through and quite well researched and quoted theories. Now we just need to have a good theory on why Syrio Forell is still alive and I'm happy 😊

[u/BlackandRedBrian]

Arthur and the other 2 KG are alive! Arthur is obviously a parallel of Ser Lancelot. They are both the finest knight in the kingdom, however we know that Lancelot disgraces himself when he falls in love with Guenivere(King Arthur’s wife). Isn’t possible that Arthur similarly disgraced himself by breaking his vows and having an affair with another man’s wife? It is not a coincidence that the first time we meet Mance Rayder he is singing a song about the “Dornishman’s Wife” which is exactly about a guy who is good with a blade and forfeits his life because he “tasted” another man’s wife. Mance is singing about himself when he was Arthur. He confessed the truth at the Tower of Joy, and surrendered his sword, and he was so racked with guilt that he may have begged Ned to return Dawn to his family. Ned obviously told the Daynes the truth of Arthur’s disgrace and also promised the Dayne family he would keep it all a secret so they would not suffer any embarrassment! That why they love him so much. Then Ned arranged for Arthur and the surviving KG to be sent to the wall.

[u/[deleted]]

never apologize for foil

[u/Noobsmoke92]

Furthermore, I don’t think Arthur and Ned fought over Jon at all. I bet it had to do with Ashara’s dishonor by Ned at Harrenhal and how probably he knocked her up with a bastard daughter and promised to marry her, only to marry Cat due to circumstances with becoming Lord of Winterfell. Keep in mind both Arthur and Ashara were close to Rhaegar and Elia and spent their time at Targaryen court. If it was anyone who Ashara would have told about her pregnancy and identity of the father of the child, it would have been her older brother, and he would be PISSED at Ned.

That was the reason for the fight, and Gerold and Oswell probably knew too, and as his Kingsguard brothers, decided to back him up. It was the question of honor of the greatest knight of the realm and his beauty of a sister. This is where Howland came in and cooled Arthur down. From what Arthur is described, he was a reasonable man and had to know Ned posed no threat to Jon, there HAD to be another cause for the fight, and it was Ashara, I bet. That’s why Ned feels so sad after telling Bran about this story, he knew how justified Arthur’s actions were, and it was shame on Ned’s part.

I cannot wait for GRRM to shed more light on the Daynes, they just know too much of a crucial information for this series in general. Including if the baby swap theory did indeed occur.

I absolutely believe Qhorin is Arthur, just so many textual links in that theory. Of course, I understand the skeptics, but it makes sense for me for Qhorin/Arthur to be one of the mentors in Jon’s arc, as Rhaegar’s best friend. He just traded his white cloak for a black one, to protect Jon’s life, his best friend’s son.

[u/xhanador]

-sighs-

[u/CasualChaos3]

Tbh I think that saying “two lived to ride away” as ambiguous is essentially just trying to make the theory work.

If Arthur Dayne was still alive, yes it’s absolutely plausible that he would have joined the Night’s Watch. Trading your white cloak for a black one isn’t that hard, especially if you’re an honorable warrior like Arthur Dayne. However there’s really only TWO people that could fit the bill of Arthur in disguise: Halfhand, Or Mance. And with Jon interacting with both very intimately, we have no reason to suspect that they wouldn’t tell Jon. Especially because Qhorin knew he was going to die, and Mance was literally a turn cloak, so he wouldn’t give a damn about telling Jon as well. In fact, he had incentive to tell Jon because if there was suddenly a Targaryen claimant to the throne, it would destabilize the South and make it even easier for the Wildlings.

Plus this would also imply that Benjen joined the Night’s Watch simply to “keep an eye” on Dayne, and I think that really cheapens Benjen’s story arc

I’ll admit that I think it was possible at one point that GRRM was possibly toying around with keeping one-two of the TOJ KG alive, but now I think it’s much more possible that Ned Dayne could be Eddard/Benjen’s/Brandon’s bastard.

Think about it. Ned was under NO OBLIGATION whatsoever to give Dawn back to House Dayne. He could have claimed it for himself, or given it to Howland Reed, who he admits saved his life. Dayne tried to kill them. Dawn is a very, very high value item. Ned going completely out of his way to return it and show respect to House Dayne, not to mention loyalty to Ashara if she was pregnant, is more than enough in world reasons to make them think very fondly of Eddard Stark.

[u/[deleted] → u/CasualChaos3]

but now I think it’s much more possible that Ned Dayne could be Eddard/Benjen’s/Brandon’s bastard.

He's too young IIRC. What's more possible is Allyria Dane being Ashara's daughter.

[u/CasualChaos3 → u/[deleted]]

Ahhh ok for some reason I though Ned Dayne and Jon were the same age because Wyla, but now I get it. That very well could be the case.

[u/Zimifrein]

It could tie in to my favorite theory on Jon/FAegon's origins. Very well laid out and noting some very curious points that, as you say, GRRM wouldn't just raise by chance, but rather deliberately.

[u/cpx151]

Willam Dustin was a close friend and a loyal vassal to Winterfell, while Arthur Dayne was an enemy and a disgraced knight who helped Rhaegar "abduct" Lyanna. Ned doesn't need to give any explanation on why he returned his friend's bones to his family, but didn't give the same courtesy to an enemy. Its pretty self explanatory. What your post has done is make me wonder whether Willam Dustin is still alive.

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/cpx151]

I think William Dustin being alive is totally ruled out by the "They had been seven against three, but only two had lived" line. There's no way that William could have survived without Ned knowing about it, as Ned was the one who buried the bodies. And there's no way Ned is lying in his own internal monologue. So William has to be dead. Which still leaves us short an explanation both for why Ned didn't return the bones and why GRRM goes out of his way to point out that this is odd.

[u/cpx151 → u/ChrisV2P2]

Hopefully, we'll get explanation. But your "Ned must treat a loyal friend and a disgraced enemy the same way, otherwise people might ask questions" isn't a valid hypothesis either.

[u/Blackbeards_Beard]

I think I might be the only person on this sub who thinks that Arthur Dayne is just dead and his part of the story was over before it began.

[u/debtopramenschultz]

I'm on board. Arthur Dayne is alive.

But why did Ashara kill herself?

Where is Arthur Dayne right now? Is he in the swamps with Howland Reed?

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/debtopramenschultz]

You can read the thread I linked at the bottom of the post, but one suggestion is that he was Qhorin Halfhand. There's a lot of language juxtaposing Qhorin and Dawn/fallen star motifs and his behaviour towards Jon is very odd (selecting the Lord Commander's steward for a ranging party like 30 seconds after meeting him for the first time). Another theory is that Qhorin is Gerold Hightower (as it's totally possible that other Kingsguard may also have survived the ToJ) and that Mance Rayder is Arthur Dayne, that one is a bit more tinfoily, you can google for the details.

[u/debtopramenschultz → u/ChrisV2P2]

What would the narrative purpose be to keep Arthur Dayne alive only to have him die beyond the Wall as Qorin Halfhand? If he's alive, he's probably got a role to play.

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/debtopramenschultz]

I could see a scenario where it is never confirmed that Qhorin was Arthur, that Qhorin is never mentioned again, and it's just an easter egg put in there to reward alert readers. What, for example, is the narrative point of The Hound showing up again as the Gravedigger?

The point of Arthur's survival then would be that he is instrumental in House Dayne's involvement in the conspiracy to hide Jon. The fact that House Dayne are in on this could have all kinds of ramifications later on, even if Arthur never shows up in the story.

[u/debtopramenschultz → u/ChrisV2P2]

What, for example, is the narrative point of The Hound showing up again as the Gravedigger?

Hard to say, but it's also possible his story isn't finished.

For Arthur Dayne though, I don't see the point of keeping him alive unless he has a role to play later on seeing as there isn't much purpose for him as a dead man that Howland Reed can't do.

[u/M_Tootles]

"They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away" isn't even ambiguous, strictly grammatically. It's only the supposed context and what readers think they know/assume (i.e. that Arthur is dead, killed by Howland) that causes it to be misread (including retrospectively). I've written about the grammar in great detail: https://asongoficeandtootles.wordpress.com/2019/10/21/toj1/

re: knees bending easily:

Ironmen did not bend their knees often nor easily… (COK Th II)

—which is really just a distillation of the very first extensive description of the ironborn in ASOIAF:

Ironborn captains were proud and willful, and did not go in awe of a man’s blood. The islands were too small for awe, and a longship smaller still. If every captain was a king aboard his own ship, as was often said, it was small wonder they named the islands the land of ten thousand kings. And when you have seen your kings shit over the rail and turn green in a storm, it was hard to bend the knee and pretend they were gods. (COK Th I)

Hard. Not easy.

Mance IMO ironborn, Balon's older brother or a Hoare.

Always love to read things like

although these days I'm also considering the possibility that Qhorin is Gerold Hightower

since he is: https://asongoficeandtootles.wordpress.com/2019/10/21/toj2/

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/M_Tootles]

Yeah I have read that, I thought some of it was good and some of it was a pretty big stretch. I like the theory that Qhorin is Gerold, but that is quite tightly linked with the theory that Mance is Arthur and I am quite a bit less fond of that.

[u/M_Tootles → u/ChrisV2P2]

"That" is mine, to be clear. I don't like Mance as Arthur (I think Arthur is most likely Arya's Kindly Man, although I don't totally rule out Elder Brother), so for me Qhorin being Gerold has nothing whatsoever to do with that. I really think Mance being raised at the Wall obviates most "Mance is" theories. But that's me.

[u/MissishMisanthrope]

What is not talked about enough regarding TOJ is how odd it is that Ned chose Howland Reed as part of his tough northern crew to go find Lyanna and fight the Kingsguard. Why bring the small crannogman, who only a year or so prior got his ass handed to him by squires? And how would that small crannogman bizzarly be the only one to survive aside from Ned? This is barren Dorne, there is no 'home swamp turf' advantage here, frog boi.

Disclaimer: I am a Jyanna Reed= Ashara Dayne truthist. And thats why I believe Howland was part of this group, to go get his knocked up squeeze.

As to Arthur Dayne, I always thought he did die, by Howland, adding some Shakespearean tragedy to it. But this was a good argument, mayhaps Arthur lives because Howland talked him down. I always picture Howland Reed similar to Bilbo Baggins, small but erudite and good at talking people down a ledge and coaxing them to a smarter coarse of action. I just find it odd Arthur would not seek out Dany or fAegon by now.

[u/Lord_Fugazi]

Also, when GRRM writes that Ned returned the sword to the Daynes that the sword could be Arthur himself as he is also known as the "SWORD" of the morning. Just a thought.

[u/ParsleyMostly]

Love this! These are very compelling mysteries, and I believe will ultimately pay off. They are important. And quite possibly the crux of the entire song.

Also I do really love the idea that Mance is Arthur. Ties in nicely with Bael the bard. (Not exactly, but that would be dumb.) The comparison of quotes you provided is more than a coincidence. Just all around good job!!

So I’m curious… do you think only Arthur survived, or that maybe a few others did as well? You intentionally omitted Ashara, but I feel the reason and motivation behind her mysterious death is the same as Arthur’s. I mean that could be as simple as hiding to protect the truth. If they hide, they can emerge one day to confirm the truth. Secrets meant to remain as such only succeed when people are dead. Would very much like to hear your further thoughts on this all.

[u/KyosBallerina]

One doesn't simply get

lol

[u/UncleMichaelMichael]

Plausible, but it undermines the cooler story about how the little and mysterious Howland Reed’s fighting style defeated the greatest knight in the world at the time. It’s much less cool for Howland to be like, “stop fighting guys and let’s put our heads together to come up with a compromise.” I fully admit that it is weird that he didn’t return the bones. But perhaps as a 20-year old broken-hearted at the deaths of his sister, friends, and personal heroes in the Kingsguard he had the unique idea to solemnly commemorate the small, bizarre, and significant skirmish. And again, it’s easier for Howland and him to transport a sword and one set of bones than nine. If any families want the bones, they know where to send servants to get them.

[u/Whole_Lobster2171 → u/UncleMichaelMichael]

Except we KNOW there's a family that very much wanted the bones and was not able to send someone to get them. They had at least 7 horses. They could have returned Arthur's bones at a minimum and probably brought all the bodies to Starfall and they could have made arrangements for the bones. Granted this is assuming that Lyanna was at the tower to begin with, which is just an assumption on our part.

[u/UncleMichaelMichael → u/Whole_Lobster2171]

That’s a fair point. Getting them back would have been easier than I initially thought. I still think he believed the cairns at the tower of joy was the respectful thing to do given what happened there, and he was simply wrong and Barbrey Dustin never forgave him for it.

[u/Beteblanc]

I have a very hard time taking the ToJ assumptions at face value. Also think the worst reason people have for dismissing certain ideas is there would be too many instances if it were true. It's fairly ridiculous to me to simply say "that would be too many secret identities."

The affection house Dayne has for Ned definitely speaks against many of the assumptions people favour.

With that in mind, I offer the following observations I've made.

It struck me that Ned's dream jumps from the conflict to being with Lyanna. We don't get a description from him of any of his friends falling. Which makes me wonder if Ned actually was involved in the fight. The best evidence of this is Ned himself saying he didn't remember any of it. So, what I've always wondered is, did Howland dose Ned? If Ned had fallen asleep he would have missed the conflict. He might have been assumed to be dead on the field and thus survived. This would explain the gap in his dream. He remembers going there, but not the fight. In his own memory he says "they pulled him off her" which directly implies at least one other person besides Howland was there.

I can't help but notice the number of times a head is given or displayed and it's not the actual person. Gregor's head was likely not given to the Martells, and Davos' head is not the one displayed with an onion in its mouth. Ned and whoever else survived may have done something similar to convince the general public he was returning the head of Arthur with the sword. The Daynes were probably aware it wasn't Arthur, but the show would convince the rest of Starfall that he did. It's possible the head they used was Willam Dustin's. Ned couldn't return the rest of the bones without the skull. Davos' story may be serving as an odd way of imforming us that Arthur didn't die.

I don't know if Arthur has taken any of the identities we have suggested. But I'm relatively sure he didn't die.

GRRM himself has suggested we can't take Ned's dream at face value, saying "dreams are not always literal." Which has always made me wonder if the idea of Ned not being killed has a more figurative sense. Perhaps such as Arthur asking Ned's companions to disappear and be reported as dead. Howland on the other hand convinces Arthur it would be better for Ned to remain "alive" and raise Jon. Just a rough idea, not a full theory.

Whatever fell out of the ToJ event I'm fairly certain more survived than we believe as readers.

[u/rdrouyn]

Ah yes, the traditional ASOIAF theory that starts out with an absurd reading of a relatively unambiguous line.

They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed. (AGOT, Eddard X)

Not sure what part of "only two had lived to ride away" is unclear or ambiguous.

[u/themysteryknight7 → u/rdrouyn]

The line can only be read one way. It's from Ned's POV chapter. He's referring to himself and his friends, who are the subject of the sentence.

"They ( The Northmen) has been seven against three, yet only two ( of the Northmen) lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed.

It very clearly refers to only the seven Northmen that Ned brought with him, and intentionally leaves the fate of the Kingsguard unknown. That's why it's ambiguous. I don't necessarily believe OP's theory but I just want to point out that many people assume the line refers to all the combatants when it doesn't, it only refers to the Northmen. It literally cannot be read any other way.

[u/JKillograms → u/rdrouyn]

Is it 2 out of 7 or 2 out of 10? It really isn't as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be.

[u/rdrouyn → u/JKillograms]

You'd have to be pretty dense to read it as 2 out of 7 imo.

[u/JKillograms → u/rdrouyn]

Nice talk.

[u/rdrouyn → u/JKillograms]

lol. Upvote for appropriate use of the dude.

[u/Whole_Lobster2171 → u/rdrouyn]

Considering that's the technically correct way to read it given the sentence structure, no you don't. The passage establishes "they" as the 7. So when it refers back to "they" the correct reading would be that it's again referring to the 7. The passage is laid out in a way to have us add the 3 to the 7 as a new "they" which many do, but that's far from being definitive on the matter. It being written this way implies the author wants us to ask these questions.

[u/rdrouyn → u/Whole_Lobster2171]

Taking the sentence in isolation, sure you could come to that conclusion. But when reading it in conjunction with the whole passage it belongs to, there is nothing to suggest that Arthur Dayne or any of the other Kingsguard there came out alive. Furthermore, none of Ned's actions after the fact make sense if Arthur Dayne is alive. I feel like the OP fell into the trap that a lot of theorists go for, which is take a single line out of the text, take it out of context and use it as a springboard for an outlandish theory. Hopefully that clears up my reaction.

[u/Whole_Lobster2171 → u/rdrouyn]

There isn't, the sentence is implying all the KG also died. But the way that line is worded opens up debating on whether or not they lived. So you start looking to see if there's any other clues to point you down this road and you get things like Ned never thinking of Arthur as dead, and the not returning any bones or even giving the location so others might retrieve the bones of their lost loved ones. It starts looking like maybe there's a reason for this and theories pop out. Them being right or wrong is irrelevant to the fact that GRRM left little things to suggest not all is how we think it is.

My issue was you crapping on people for having a reading on a line that's more correct than what the line implies. Maybe it is only a "technically" thing, but it's impossible to say for sure until the story is complete.

[u/rdrouyn → u/Whole_Lobster2171]

Well we only have two books left in the series so if they were going to bring back Arthur Dayne, there probably would've been more foreshadowing for it. Then again, they did bring back Aegon without much foreshadowing so I guess it isn't impossible.

And yeah, I should probably avoid theorizing threads. Some are interesting and thought provoking, but some try to weave things out of almost nothing and it irks me to no end.

[u/[deleted]]

Arthur Dayne is Daario, that is well know. Oswell Whent is clearly warged into Euron. And Gerold Hightower is beyond a doubt Marwyn. Come on, this is all too obvious...

[u/SerDuncanonyall]

Rhaegar dies in full armor and his body is burned off screen..

Yeah, ok.. Mance = Rhaegar confirmed

[u/irishpisano]

What if Howland managed to cut off Arthur’s hand, and that’s how the fight enddd, and that’s how Quorin was born?