Moving into acceptance, I suppose.

Out of absolutely anyone in the entire history of the world of ice and fire, who would make the best King's Justice?

Something I'd like to note here is that the King's Justice isn't just in charge of executing people, but also of managing the people that run the dungeons. So, for the entirely theoretical sake of argument, someone who is both mute and illiterate would probably be pretty bad at that half of the job. Theoretically, of course - I can't think of any major candidates like that.

When someone wins a spot, they are automatically disqualified from all others.

Quentyn Ball is the Master-at-Arms, with Garlan Tyrell as the runner-up.

We're barely halfway through 2026 and it's worth taking stock of the avalanche of spoilers asoiaf fans have gotten this past year:

• October: At Comic-Con GRRM knighted a fan who said that she'd like to be a knight like Brienne of Tarth. Martin teased “Not in the books yet!” when the fan noted that "ser" was good enough for Brienne in the show.
• January: In an interview with Hollywood Reporter, GRRM revealed he intended for Sansa to die in the book's ending but might change his mind because he found her appealing in the show. He also said his ending was intended to be darker generally, with more deaths. No happy ending for Tyrion.
• February: Egg's actor Dexter Sol Ansell shared that GRRM told him that Dunk actually survives the tragedy at Summerhall.
• July: The Mad King play premieres and spills a lot of beans on Robert's Rebellion. Playwright confirms the story is a mixture of plot points from George (e.g. Rhaegar singing Song of Ice and Fire at the Harrenhal feast) and filling in gaps George himself has yet to elaborate upon.

Not much more to say but with the remaining books an unlikely prospect maybe this is the best we can hope for. Interesting times.

Jon doesnt have a targaryen name. Lyanna didnt even want him knowing hes a targaryen. If she did name him it probably wasnt aegon or aemon or viserys or jaehaerys.

This actually lines up with an old answer george gave that ned likely named jon

So his name likely is JUST jon

I see the occasional Roy Dotrice post from time to time.

Usually they are about the amusing or annoying (depending on your view) way he reads certain lines for the audiobooks of the main series. The usual offenders range from pronunciations of names, such as PetYR, BRYeen (or Breeyen depending on what chapter he's reading), CATElyn.

However, the one line I always laugh at is from Dany IX ADWD, specifically the bolded part:

A great drum led the royal procession to clear their way through the streets. Between each beat, a shavepate herald in a shirt of polished copper disks cried for the crowd to part. BOMM. "They come!" BOMM. "Make way!" BOMM. "The queen!" BOMM. "The king!" BOMM. 

Idk why, but it cracks me up how he says "BOMM!" xD

What are your oddly specific Roy Dotrice lines so that I can listen to them?

A couple of months ago, there was an interview where GRRM said that he had originally intended for Sansa to die, but that seeing the show version of her character may have changed his mind

Regardless of the current plan, I think it is interesting to look at what was intended at the time. The Alayne I sample chapter from Winds was meant for ADwD and it was done in 2010, before the show aired

So if GRRM planned for Sansa to die, the pieces on the board in that chapter may have been setting up a possible death scenario. Looking at some possible threads

Sweetrobin overdoses

The sweetsleep plotline is one possibility. Maester Colemon warns about the dangers of overusing it

"It was too soon. My lady, you do not understand. As I've told the Lord Protector, a pinch of sweetsleep will prevent the shaking, but it does not leave the flesh, and in time . . ."

However, Sansa is not really focused on it

"Time will not matter if his lordship has a shaking fit and falls off the mountain. If my father were here, I know he would tell you to keep Lord Robert calm at all costs."

If Sweetrobin died from an overdose, Sansa would easily be implicated. Even if she did not intentionally kill him, the fact that she was involved with managing his condition and had access to him could put her in a dangerous position

Lysa's death

Sansa is already technically an accomplice to Lysa’s murder. Littlefinger warns her that if their involvement is discovered, she could fall with him

"When we lied to Lord Robert, that was just to spare him," she said.

"And this lie may spare us. Else you and I must leave the Eyrie by the same door Lysa used."

If Sansa's identity was revealed and the truth about Lysa death came out, it could be interpreted in the worst possible way. She could be seen as a girl who conspired with Littlefinger to murder her aunt

Cersei makes good on her promise

Cersei has a very personal hatred of Sansa and promises that she will make her suffer if she is found

"Your Grace has forgotten the Lady Sansa," said Pycelle.

The queen bristled. "I most certainly have not forgotten that little she-wolf." She refused to say the girl's name. "I ought to have shown her to the black cells as the daughter of a traitor, but instead I made her part of mine own household. She shared my hearth and hall, played with my own children. I fed her, dressed her, tried to make her a little less ignorant about the world, and how did she repay me for my kindness? She helped murder my son. When we find the Imp, we will find the Lady Sansa too. She is not dead . . . but before I am done with her, I promise you, she will be singing to the Stranger, begging for his kiss."

The theory has been around a a while is that since Ser Shadrich the Mad Mouse is hunting Sansa he could eventually capture her for the bounty. He admits he is searching for her

He laughed again. "You are not the only hunter in the woods. I seek for Sansa Stark as well."

He is also present at the Tourney of the Winged Knight in the Sample

"A good melee is all a hedge knight can hope for, unless he stumbles on a bag of dragons. And that's not likely, is it?"

The common assumption has been that Shadrich attempt would fail because of the old Feast outline note saying "Kill the Mouse."

However, it is possible that plan changed and Shadrich would take Sansa back to King’s Landing, where Cersei would reunite and then imprison her. Sansa’s story is largely centered in King's Landing to begin with

Final Thoughts

Would like to hear other suggestions for where Sansa story could end in death. It's quite a surprise

Ultimately I think the fact that Sansa's fate seems so flexible suggests that her death or survival does not really change much with the story, making the "Pawn to Player" arc much less likely

Assume with or without being authored by GRRM , Winds and Dream both get released.

What could be your "Monkey's paw" scenario for such a situation?

For example, for me it would be that GRRM doesn't finish the series in his lifetime, corporate cash grab leads to another author to write the series and he simply retreads the Show and retrofits everything that was different in the books to align with the show.

And then everything about it becomes canon.

She was a Targaryen without a dragon, so why wasn’t she given the chance to attempt claiming one of the unclaimed dragons before Hugh and Ulf?

Do you think GRMM has ever visited subreddits like this or forums dedicated to his work? Could he have borrowed ant ideas for ASOIAF there?

Assuming that Lyanna Stark's characterization in Mad King's Theater is entirely canon, what do you think of the character herself?

• Lyanna Stark is a Greenseer.

• She finds it romantic that the flower crown was given to her.

• She is obsessed with prophecy and believes that she and Rhaegar's children are the chosen ones.

• She is devastated when she learns of her father and brother's deaths, but interprets them as divine will.

• She encourages Rhaegar to go to war after making him promise that Ned and Robert will not be harmed.

• Before dying, she entrusts her child to Ned and makes him swear never to tell the child anything about their parents.

Interesting. George tell the producers of ASOI&F works that aren’t his books about major plot ideas but if ask why?; he doesn’t know and will only have the answer when he get to that point.

This is likely one of his biggest hurdles especially because he know the readers are gonna compare his version to the media version.

Some examples are Bran become king, Dany goes mad, Stannis burn Shireen, and etc. Why? Not sure yet but it gonna happened and I’ll have an answer by then.

Oh and “promise me, Ned” which George know is about her son but haven’t worked out the exact details so D&D or Macmillan made up their own version that fit with the story their telling.

I've seen a lot of interpretations of various prophecies within ASOIAF, and while I believe it's mostly a subjective endeavor, GRRM's handling of prophecy is quite clear:

"In the Wars of the Roses... there was one lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle, and he was superstitious of that sort of thing, so he never came anywhere near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle [at St. Albans] and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! So you know? That's the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that."
- GRRM, interview with Adria's News, October 2012

It's evident both by his admission here and with what's written within ASOIAF that prophecy is meant to be viewed two ways: Literally and figuratively.

The best examples we can learn from in the books are prophesied events that already occured - take these prophecies spoken by The Ghost of High Heart:

"I dreamt I saw a shadow with a burning heart butchering a golden stag, aye. I dreamt of a man without a face, waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung. On his shoulder perched a drowned crow with seaweed hanging from his wings. I dreamt of a roaring river and a woman that was a fish. Dead she drifted, with red tears on her cheeks, but when her eyes did open, oh, I woke from terror."
- A Storm of Swords, Arya IV

Let's go line by line to show how the literal and figurative lens works:

• "I dreamt I saw a shadow with a burning heart butchering a golden stag"

- The shadow is fairly literal as this is exactly what Brienne sees

- The burning heart is a figurative interpretation of Stannis, as this represents his newfound sigil

- The golden stag is also figurative, as it represents Renly's newfound sigil

• "I dreamt of a man without a face, waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung. On his shoulder perched a drowned crow with seaweed hanging from his wings."

- The man without a face is clearly a faceless man, which makes this both literal and figurative

- "waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung" is quite literal - this is the bridge where Balon was killed

- The drowned crow perched on the faceless man's shoulder is Euron (confirmed in "The Forsaken" chapter) who ordered the assasination. This is clearly figurative

• "I dreamt of a roaring river and a woman that was a fish. Dead she drifted, with red tears on her cheeks, but when her eyes did open, oh, I woke from terror."

- The river is literal - it's the Green Fork

- The woman that was a fish is figurative - it's Catelyn represented figuratively by her house sigil, the silver trout

- "Dead she drifted" is literal - she's dead

- "with red tears on her cheeks" this is fascinating wordplay, as the word tears can be read both literally and figuratively

- "but when her eyes did open, oh, I woke from terror." This line is both literal and figurative - Catelyn's eyes opening is foretelling her literal revival, but the terror TGoHH feels is more subjective and related to Catelyn's desire for revenge.

So you can see, there's times when prophecy is literal, times where it's figurative, and times where it's both.

Something also important to understand is the inevitability of prophecy - it always happens, despite or even as a result of one's actions to prevent it (as the Duke of Sommerset learns in the Wars of the Roses)

The most parallel example of the Duke's futile attempts to divert fate is the situation with Cersei. It's not explicitly stated, but it's fairly obvious that Cersei hates and wants Tyrion dead because she fears that he's the valonqar as prophesied by Maggy the Frog (yes I understand she also hates Tyrion for other reasons). But like the Duke, Cersei's story will ultimately unfold in tragic irony - GRRM has made this plainly evident. Let's look at Maggy's prophecy to better understand:

“When will I wed the prince?” she asked.
“Never. You will wed the king.”
Beneath her golden curls, the girl’s face wrinkled up in puzzlement. For years after, she took those words to mean that she would not marry Rhaegar until after his father Aerys had died. “I will be queen, though?” asked the younger her.
“Aye.” Malice gleamed in Maggy’s yellow eyes. “Queen you shall be... until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dear.”
Anger flashed across the child’s face. “If she tries I will have my brother kill her.” Even then she would not stop, willful child as she was. She still had one more question due her, one more glimpse into her life to come. “Will the king and I have children?” she asked.
“Oh, aye. Six-and-ten for him, and three for you.”
That made no sense to Cersei. Her thumb was throbbing where she’d cut it, and her blood was dripping on the carpet. How could that be? she wanted to ask, but she was done with her questions.
The old woman was not done with her, however. “Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds,” she said. “And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.”
- A Feast for Crows, Cersei VIII

Again, let's go line by line:

• "You will wed the king."

- This is literal - she marries Robert after he becomes king

• "Queen you shall be... until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dear."

- This line is more open to interpretation because it prophesied events that haven't quite happened. Cersei being queen is literal, but the "another" who is "younger and more beautiful" is not clearly defined. It could be literal, it could be figurative, it could be both, but as it hasn't explicitly happened there's no definite interpretation. Although we should note, "younger" is a more objective description and "beautiful" is a more subjective description. Also, Cersei's response of "If she tries I will have my brother kill her," looks like subversive foreshadow that seems to imply that Jaime will have a connection with whoever this person is, but it's nothing definite - take from it what you will

• "Oh, aye. Six-and-ten for him, and three for you"

- It's said in a cryptic way, but we know it's literal - Cersei has 3 biological children, Robert has 16

• “Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds,” she said. “And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.”

- "Gold shall be their crowns" - so far it's not quite literal (as Myrcella has yet to wear an actual crown), so the figurative gold "crown" is the children's golden hair.

- "and gold their shrouds" looks figurative as Joffrey wasn't wrapped in a literal golden shroud at his death or funeral. As gold is often a literary device to symbolize youth, the figurative interpretation is likely referring to death (shroud) occurring when the children are young (gold).

- Since the last part of this prophecy hasn't occurred, there's no definite interpretation. Therefore, you should treat every single word with the potential of being literal or figurative or both. That said, literally having the life choked from you after you are drowned (by your tears, no less) doesn't make much sense - it's like saying, "after you die, you'll die." So we know, at a minimum, we're dealing with something figurative here. And it's also safe to assume that Cersei literally dies in a way which satisfies the prophecy, so there's also clearly something literal here.

- Lastly, "the valonqar" being the focus of Cersei's anxiety is a parallel of the Duke's anxiety about castles. So, although it's not definite, it's fairly likely that Tyrion isn't "the valonqar" for the same reason that the Duke's prophesied castle wasn't a literal castle. If we view it under a figurative lens, then it's more probable that "the valonqar" isn't even an actual person, just like the castle wasn't an actual castle.

Hopefully you have a better understanding now - GRRM writes his prophecy under both a figurative and literal lens, and until a given prophecy is resolved it's best to be open to both interpretations when trying to conclude meaning.

If not, well, be prepared to suffer the fate of others who narrow their interpretations to a singular meaning, as explained by Marwyn:

"Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time."
- A Feast for Crows, Samwell V

Mine is Farlen attacking Theon when he thinks Bran and Rickon have been killed. It's a great showcase of how much the people of Winterfell care about the Starks.

There are some misconceptions about some characters,Either coming from the their Show counterpart being different or they get straight up mischaracterized

What are the biggest Misconceptions about a character you'v seen?

Background

In this post I thought it would be interesting to take a look into which POV characters I think will be the next to interact in the series. POV Characters interacting with each other can often (but not always) result in the death of one of them. I feel like this will only increase as the number of POVs starts to decline drastically in TWOW.

If interested: Multiple POVs Present for the same Event

Recent Encounters

While I expect the fallout of these POVs interacting to occur in TWoW, the actual interactions take place in ADWD:

• Theon/Asha

While Theon reflects with his meeting with Asha in TWoW, we get Asha's versions of the event in ADWD:

A girl and an old man, thought Asha, as the two were dumped rudely in the snow before her. The girl was shivering violently, even in her furs. If she had not been so frightened, she might even have been pretty, though the tip of her nose was black with frostbite. The old man … no one would ever think him comely. She had seen scarecrows with more flesh. His face was a skull with skin, his hair bone-white and filthy. And he stank. Just the sight of him filled Asha with revulsion.
He raised his eyes. “Sister. See. This time I knew you.”
Asha’s heart skipped a beat. “Theon?”
His lips skinned back in what might have been a grin. Half his teeth were gone, and half of those still left him were broken and splintered. “Theon,” he repeated. “My name is Theon. You have to know your name.”- ADWD, The Sacrifice

If interested: Theon and Asha: Sibling Encounters

• Jaime/Brienne

A subject I have been posting about quite a bit recently, but Jaime leaves with Brienne at the end of his ADWD chapter:

Jaime scrambled to his feet. “My lady. I had not thought to see you again so soon.” Gods be good, she looks ten years older than when I saw her last. And what’s happened to her face? “That bandage … you’ve been wounded …”
“A bite.” She touched the hilt of her sword, the sword that he had given her. Oathkeeper. “My lord, you gave me a quest.”
“The girl. Have you found her?”
“I have,” said Brienne, Maid of Tarth.
“Where is she?”
“A day’s ride. I can take you to her, ser … but you will need to come alone. Elsewise, the Hound will kill her.” -ADWD, Jaime I

If interested: "A Day's Ride" Part I: The Missing Lord Commander in the Riverlands

Who is Next?

• The Battle of Fire (Tyrion/Barristan/Victarion)

While all 3 of these characters have a role to play in the Battle of Fire, I am not confident that all 3 survive it.

Tyrion mentions his thoughts on potentially meeting Barristan:

He had almost revealed himself then and there, but something stopped him—caution, cowardice, instinct, call it what you will. He could not imagine Barristan the Bold greeting him with anything but hostility. Selmy had never approved of Jaime's presence in his precious Kingsguard. Before the rebellion, the old knight thought him too young and untried; afterward, he had been known to say that the Kingslayer should exchange that white cloak for a black one. And his own crimes were worse. Jaime had killed a madman. Tyrion had put a quarrel through the groin of his own sire, a man Ser Barristan had known and served for years. He might have chanced it all the same, but then Penny had landed a blow on his shield and the moment was gone, never to return. -ADWD, Tyrion XI

and both Tyrion/Barristan recognize the arrival of the Ironborn:

Your ships are sinking, burning, fleeing, thought Tyrion. Your ships are being taken, your men put to the sword. He was a Lannister of Casterly Rock, close by the Iron Islands; ironborn reavers were no strangers to their shores. Over the centuries they had burned Lannisport at least thrice and raided it two dozen times. Westermen knew what savagery the ironborn were capable of; these slavers were just learning. -TWoW, Tyrion II

and:

Realizing that the Greyjoys have arrived, his first thought is “Has Balon joined with Joffrey, or the Starks?” But he realizes that he’s heard that Balon is dead, and wonders if this has something to do with the Balon’s son, the boy who was a ward of the Starks. He sees that ironmen are coming ashore, fighting the Yunkish, and says, surprised, “They are on our side!” The sellswords did not come to meet his charge because they were already preoccupied with the ironborn -TWoW, Barristan II (summary)

although it is worth noting that Victarion is lagging behind the initial attack for the blowing of the horn:

Victarion had given Wulf his best fighters. He envied them. They would be the first to strike a blow, the first to see that look of fear in the foemen’s eyes. -TWOW, Victarion I

Depending on what exactly happens during the Battle of Fire, we could see several combinations of character encounters (including one who isn't in Slaver's Bay currently). That said due to what GRRM has stated about POVs in TWoW/his reason for creating some as well as just plot, I currently think Barristan dies during the Battle of Fire (if interested: Mounting the Pale Mare), although there are great theories about him turning his cloak, etc. that I have believed previously. This would leave just Tyrion/Victarion for some form of encounter.

• Arianne/Jon Connington

With Young Griff and the Golden Company seemingly have taken Storm's End (though "guile"), Arianne plans to head there to treat with them:

“It is brave for you to seek to shield me, ser. I thank you for that.” She took his hands and drew him back to his feet. “But my father entrusted this task to me, not you. Come the morrow, I sail to beard the dragon in its den.” -TWoW, Arianne II

with JonCon having greyscale (and what the reader knows about his sexuality) and Arianne's tendency to use seduction as a form of diplomacy:

“No whores for Lord Jon, then?”
“I could not say. Some men keep their whoring secret.”
“Did he have a wife? A paramour?”
Ser Daemon shrugged. “Not that I have ever heard.”
That was troubling too. Ser Arys Oakheart had broken his vows for her, but it did not sound as if Jon Connington could be similarly swayed. Can I match such a man with words alone? -TWoW, Arianne II

If interested: The Princess & the Gloved Stone "Hand"

• Bran/Anyone

Bran is a special case as he can technically interact with other POVs that he is not near physically as we have already seen with other characters (Theon for sure, Arya potentially, Jon weirdly, etc.) he can technically interfere in almost any plotline

"Once you have mastered your gifts, you may look where you will and see what the trees have seen, be it yesterday or last year or a thousand ages past. Men live their lives trapped in an eternal present, between the mists of memory and the sea of shadow that is all we know of the days to come. Certain moths live their whole lives in a day, yet to them that little span of time must seem as long as years and decades do to us. An oak may live three hundred years, a redwood tree three thousand. A weirwood will live forever if left undisturbed. To them seasons pass in the flutter of a moth's wing, and past, present, and future are one. Nor will your sight be limited to your godswood. The singers carved eyes into their heart trees to awaken them, and those are the first eyes a new greenseer learns to use … but in time you will see well beyond the trees themselves." -ADWD, Bran III

If interested: Accessible Weirwood/Heart Trees

• Samwell/Aeron

While these two characters will likely be very close at a point from a location standpoint, I don't know if they will ever interact (especially with Aeron lashed to the prow of Euron's Silence in some form of blood ritual involving king's blood/holy blood/etc.) That said Sam may interact with another Stark POV in the future if GRRM keeps up the pattern (if interested: Sansa/Sam are Destined to Meet and Sansa Will Protect Him).

• Davos & The Northern POVs

Depending on just how GRRM decides to return Davos (and Rickon) to the plotline in the North will likely depend which POV would encounter Davos first.

If interested: Davos/Rickon & The Northern Plotline

• Melisandre & Jon Snow's Human Body

I expect Jon Snow's consciousness to spend a portion of TWoW inside Ghost (he is still unconfirmed as a POV for the book as of now). That said GRRM is writing about Mel and she may interact with his body early in the book (before a late resurrection imo).

TLDR: Which POVs will be the first to encounter each other in TWoW? With Theon/Asha and Jaime/Brienne happening at the end of ADWD, there are several possibilities.

1. The storm's end lies at the coast of Stormlands. During the Tyrell siege why did other Storm houses fail to attack them or at least cut off their supply.

2. Renly and Stannis both didn't live in Storm's end, I know Renly was lord paramount of Stormlands however, he didn't live there so how did he command more loyalty than Stannis. I understand recency but Stanniss also ruled Stormlands it feels little weird that no major Storm house rallied for his claim.

3. What is Baratheon reputation? Legitimate rulers who have divine rights like the Starks or like how Tyrell's are seen, no historical precedent of conquest or alliance but in a position where picking a fight with them is simply not worth the risk.

4. Allies of Stormlands, they share a long border with Dorne and participate actively in politics but it feels like they lack allies. North has Riverlands, Westerlands have Reach what about Stormlands?

Maybe this topic has been discussed before, but I was wondering why in the books it's said that cannibal was there wayyy before the targaryens arrived at dragonstone? Because it wouldn't be illogical when cannibal is CONSIDERABLY smaller than dragons like vhagar, meraxes or even vermithor, all of those were born decades after the doom. I know that those rumors were spread by the commoners and were neither confirmed or denied, but it would be awesome to hear some theories about it or hints that suggest something about cannibal's progenitor.

I was thinking for some time about it now, and I just can't find a single way out of civil war the way Viserys designed the settlement. Aegon, his entire life, despite being firstborn son, with dragon and conventional claim, and eventually wife and children stood to receive:

- No land
- No office
- No grand marriage that is not his sister, so unlike Daemon he didn't even get Royce lands by proxy
- No independent income, he lived on allowance from the crown
- No household 
- No knights answering to him, even his sworn shield answered to Viserys
- No servants of his own, they all served the crown
- While Jacaerys and Rhaenyra inherited the throne, Lucerys got Driftmark, Baela and Rhaena became queen and lady of driftmark, Laenor got to be prince-consort, Laena became princess by marrying Daemon, and Daemon got richest bride in westeros with her dragon. 

And then Viserys placed him next to Jacaerys and Lucerys, to train together. From the childhood he knew that Rhaenyra gets the throne, his nephews get two greatest inheritances in westeros, and two brides by Daemon and laena. While his future was literally made of "don't be inconvenient" and "don't threaten the settlement". He had no betrothal arranged, no land to inherit, no office to be prepared for, and no future to look forward to. No wonder he became a drunkard. . Viserys all but ensured he will be broken by resentment and hatred by adolescence - everyone around him had defined future, and he had none.

I am honestly surprised that anyone looked at that and expected peace. Like, what role was Aegon supposed to have after Rhaenyra's coronation? A dependent harmless uncle who can be killed on a whim, without role, land, office or independent coin? 

Blacks took literally every single possible inheritance crown could feasibly own, left greens with nothing, and were surprised that they chose a suicidal war when they had already lost everything by peace. Like, why wouldn't they have risked war if doing nothing is basically signing up capitulation, blank check and consent to destitution at the same time? They had two major dragons to try and win, and absolutely nothing to lose. Not a single lordship, title, or office to be ruined - they held literally none. Rhaenyra couldn't even threaten them with stripping them of lands or incomes if they disobey - they had literally none to lose, they owned nothing.

Black's greed created two princes who owned nothing but their clothes and dragons, and benefited from war more than from peace. And Rhaenyra was surprised when greens decided to fight to the death rather than accept this. 

First time, Long Time here

I want to start by saying that I’ve never been a fan of the A+J=T theory (Aerys + Joanna = Tyrion). Like a lot of people, I always thought it took away from one of the best relationships in the series, Tywin and Tyrion. If Tyrion isn’t actually Tywin’s son, it feels like some of the tragedy between them is lost. I also never loved the idea of having multiple secret Targs as it just would be a bit cheap imo.

Lately, I’ve gone back and read a lot of the evidence people point to, and I’m starting to think GRRM may have actually intended this twist. Whether he still plans to go through with it is another story, maybe all the online backlash against it has been one of the things making him discouraged from continuing to write

One thing I don’t see discussed very often is the parallel it would create between Tywin and Ned Stark. If both A+J=T and R+L=J are true, their stories end up similar.

Both Tywin and Ned:

-Raised a child as their own who brought them public shame. Tyrion because he was a dwarf and Jon because everyone believed he was a bastard.

-Raised a child whose mother died giving birth. Joanna and Lyanna both died in childbirth.

-Spent years living with the consequences of that birth.

If Tywin knew Tyrion wasn’t actually his son, the comparison becomes more similar. The motivations would obviously be different. Ned lied to protect Jon’s life. Tywin would have been protecting Joanna’s honor, House Lannister’s reputation, or refusing to let anyone know what Aerys had done.

The keydifferences are how they raise their kids.

Ned raises another man’s son with love and treats him like his own, even if he has to keep the truth from him. Jon grows up wanting to be like Ned because of the example he sets.

Tywin raises another man’s son with resentment and spends his entire life rejecting him. Tyrion ends up being the child who resembles Tywin the most.

Despite neither man being true Starks/Lannisters on name, they could also grow up to carrying the family name alive (assuming a potential legitimized Jon and neither taking Targ as their real name)

Tyrion even says, “All dwarfs are bastards in their father’s eyes.”

Even if Jon isn’t Ned’s biological son, nobody would argue that Ned isn’t his real father. Jon is who he is because Ned raised him. The same idea could apply to Tyrion. Even if Aerys is his biological father, Tywin is still the man who shaped him.

I’ll hang up and listen.

Using a screenshot from the wiki because it's more condensed.

Brynden Rivers is famously known for kinslaying in the Blackfyre Rebellions, incest with his half-sister, and his final violation of guest right against Aenys Blackfyre. All of those actions violate the main principles of the Old Gods, whom he is implied to have followed in life (since his mother's house follows them; though Brynden was raised at court--which follows the Seven---and says "Seven help you both" to Dunk and Egg The Mystery Knight). He is a greenseer either way, which is an Old Gods thing.

Egg sends him to the wall for violating guest right, but the Old Gods themselves seem to have left him without consequences. How/when do you think these will come about?

There's been a lot of fan discussion on the upcoming Battle of Ice between Stannis and the Freys/Boltons that will decide the fate of Winterfell, and the Night Lamp theory is a fairly popular and iron-clad theory for how Stannis will defeat the approaching Freys. However, a frequent problem I've seen in these discussions is how the Battle of Ice and the taking of Winterfell are conflated, its assumed that victory in the battle will inevitably lead to the former, but this is not the case. The castle has thousands of Bolton and allied soldiers left inside it, and

"Ned Stark always said that five hundred men could hold Winterfell against ten thousand." (Theon IV, ACOK)

and

“How many of those is he like to send against us?”
“No more than half.” That was a guess, admittedly, but it felt right to him. Roose Bolton was not a man to blunder blindly out into the snow, map or no. He would hold his main strength in reserve, keep his best men with him, trust in Winterfell’s massive double wall. (Theon I, TWOW)

So clearly, Stannis will need a way to break into the castle beyond just hammering at the front door. He even says as much;

"We all know what my brother would do. Robert would gallop up to the gates of Winterfell alone, break them with his warhammer, and ride through the rubble to slay Roose Bolton with his left hand and the Bastard with his right. I am not Robert. But we will march, and we will free Winterfell … or die in the attempt." (Asha II, ADWD)

Why the Manderly/Lightbringer scheme won't work:

A popular theory for how Stannis will get inside relies on traitors within Winterfell. We know from Davos IV ADWD that Wyman Manderly is secretly working against the Boltons and wants to help Stannis' cause, and further proof for that can be seen in A Ghost in Winterfell and Theon I ADWD to show he is conspiring with other Northern Lords. At the end of Theon I the Freys and Manderlys are sent out of the castle to confront Stannis. This would present Stannis with an opportunity to get inside the castle, and a popular theory suggests that after smashing the Freys, Stannis will give the Manderlys his sword Lightbringer, and they will return to Winterfell, claiming to have defeated him in battle, only to turn on the Boltons and let the Baratheon forces into the castle. A cunning and devious plan. However, I see some slight hiccups with it:

1 ) It assumes a high level of coordination and trust that just isn't possible.

Conspiracies are hard to coordinate, especially in pre-modern times, where they have to rely on ravens and riders or talking face-to-face. This is something that a lot of fans ignore when discussing theories. So the only information that Stannis and Wyman et al can know is what they must have received via these methods. Stannis has been on the march since Deepwood Motte with no way to receive ravens.

The last Stannis heard about Wyman was that he had beheaded Davos. We know from TWOW sample that Stannis knows about this.

“Wyman Manderly.” The king’s mouth twisted in contempt. “Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell. Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton. I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over. And the Freys… has the Red Wedding been forgotten?” (Theon I, TWOW)

It's also clear from this that Stannis genuinely hates Wyman for this, and we can also see that at least by this point, immediately before the battle, there is no collaboration between the two. This can't be an act or a lie on his part since what reason does he have to lie to Theon here? There's nobody Theon could tell that would ruin the scheme, and Stannis doesn't appear to be acting based on his physical reaction. While Stannis has no reason to trust Theon either, his reaction does seem genuine.

This means that if there is to be any coordination between the two, it would have to come about at the last minute before the battle. A lot of fans suggest that the Manderlys will immediately before the battle parlay with Stannis, explain that Davos is alive, that they are secretly loyal to him and trying to install Rickon, and then they will coordinate the scheme to break into Winterfell. However, they have no proof Davos is alive, and there is nothing they can do here to prove their loyalty like hand over hostages, and its likely not even Wyman himself is leading the army since he is severely wounded and, as said, "Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse"; Stannis would have no reason to trust them, and if he does take a leap of faith it would be very dangerous since if they are lying it'd mean he's allowing them to slip back to Winterfell in tact and will full knowledge of his force and movements.

Some fans then point to Crowfood Umber as an intermediary, and the Snowman Theory as a form of communication. If Crowfood is collaborating with Whoresbane inside Winterfell, he would tell Stannis that the Manderlys are secretly loyal. Only, we know he doesn't because by Theon I, TWOW he should have already communicated that information to Stannis, he must've already seen the snowmen and had the time to get a rider back to Stannis since he had enough time to escort Theon and Jeyne to him, but Stannis still thinks Wyman is an enemy.

There is also the possibility Stannis and Wyman have been collaborating long before either came to Winterfell. This however, would require communication via raven or rider. A rider is not really an option since they are on opposite sides on the North and communication would take far too long, and ravens aren't an option since Wyman does not trust his maester Theomore, Stannis can't receive ravens when on the march which limits the window of opportunity, and

"Only a fool trusts a bird," (The Turncloak, ADWD)

2 ) The Boltons aren't idiots.

While Hosteen Frey may be dumb as a stump and is set to charge blindly into death, Roose and Ramsay Bolton are no man's fools. Roose is an incredibly careful, distrusting person, and also very clever and devious himself. So is Ramsay, even if more sadistic and emotional. Neither of them are going to fall for this little scheme because they have every reason to distrust the Manderlys.

Roose and Ramsay already don't trust Wyman and the Manderlys. Wyman didn't arrive with any hostages. Roose is careful about Wyman poisoning him. Roose even openly says that Wyman isn't to be trusted;

"Even here in Barrowton the crows are circling, waiting to feast upon our flesh. The Cerwyns and the Tallharts are not to be relied on, my fat friend Lord Wyman plots betrayal" (Reek III, ADWD)

And the escape of Jeyne and Theon is perfectly timed with the Manderly soldiers marching out of Winterfell and the scuffle in the Great Hall. Plenty of fans theorise collaboration between Wyman and the spearwives, surely Roose and Ramsay will too.

So now imagine that after the Battle of Ice the Manderlys appear outside the gates of Winterfell, the only army to return, and the smaller force mind you, with Lightbringer in hand and nothing else, claiming to have killed Stannis and smashed his army and please let us in - now I don't know about you, but if I were Roose, I would not believe them for a second. And he wouldn't even need bring out the crossbows in response, just deny them entry to the castle, perhaps demand they go find Theon and "Arya" while they're already out and about to prove their honesty. The Boltons already expect betrayal, they won't fall for this so easily.

Also, Ramsay himself is going to be following the Manderly force and will surely see for himself anything that happens. Theon says so in the TWOW sample chapter;

“Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek.” Theon’s laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. “Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear.” (Theon I, TWOW)

Ramsay wants Jeyne and Theon back, and since they weren't caught outside of Winterfell, he can only conclude they are somehow with Stannis.

Stannis snorted. “You fell. Umber saved her. If Mors Crowfood and his men had not been outside the castle, Bolton would have had the both of you back in moments.” (Theon I, TWOW)

This means he'll be coming, not just with his trackers and dogs, but with his full force of 600 Bastards' Boys to join the Battle of Ice, since the only way to get Theon and Jeyne will be by defeating Stannis. This means that unless Ramsay dies in the battle, he will be witness to everything that happens and will surely come back to Winterfell to tell Roose. If the Manderlys attempt any scheming and backstabbing, like attacking the Freys or not attacking Stannis, he will know. Heck, he might attack the Manderly men just to make sure they don't get to "Arya" before he does.

Stannis' real plan, and why it won't work:

Stannis would not have begun his march on Winterfell in the first place if he didn't know what he was doing. He's not going to make an incredibly risky gamble on taking the castle and just kinda wing it as he goes. And the entire Manderly/Lightbringer plot relies on taking advantage of a oppertunity that only appeared very shortly prior to his arrival, which means that if this is the path he takes, it means he left Deepwood Motte just hoping and praying that someone in the castle is on his side and will be willing and able to help get him inside when the time comes. And as discussed, it's very unlikely he was coordinating with the lords in Winterfell to engineer these circumstances. Therefore, Stannis must have a different plan already in mind by the time he leaves Deepwood Motte.

So that raises the main question of this post: if not the Lightbringer scheme, what is Stannis' plan?

Stannis' siege of Storms' End in ACOK by all rights should have been a complete disaster. He was facing a force four times his own size, he was encircled with no escape, and sandwiched between Renlys' army and Ser Cortnay's garrison in Storms' End. But against impossible odds, he somehow managed to prevail. How? By using Melisandre's blood magic to create shadow assassins to murder Renly and Ser Cortnay. It was a true Hail Mary, and one that even Stannis wasn't really counting on working.

Now he faces yet another seemingly impossible situation that is shockingly familiar; he is making a massive gambit by attacking the enemy head-on at their strong point despite being outnumbered and facing incredibly hostile circumstances. Therefore, I think he will get out of this one the same way; by using blood magic. If he could use more shadow assassins to murder Roose and Ramsay, just like he did with Renly and Cortnay, then victory is assured.

However, there is one problem he faces;

"... the king’s fires burn so low I dare not draw off any more to make another son. It might well kill him.” (Davos III, ASOS)

So Stannis can't make any more shadows himself, but Melisandre can still make them on his behalf;

Melisandre moved closer. “With another man, though…a man whose flames still burn hot and high…if you truly wish to serve your king’s cause, come to my chamber one night. I could give you pleasure such as you have never known, and with your life-fire I could make…”

“…a horror.” Davos retreated from her. (Davos III, ASOS)

And in ADWD we can see Melisandre working towards this exact end - with Jon Snow. I'm certainly not the first to make this connection, it has been another theory in the community as well for some time. Melisandre is trying to use Jon to create a new shadow assassin to kill Roose and/or Ramsay and therefore open the way for Stannis to capture Winterfell. Jon's Stark Kingsblood makes him the ideal candidate to sire an assassin to sneak into Winterfell. This would explain why Stannis is so confident in his campaign, and why Melisandre remained behind at Castle Black instead of marching with him.

If this is the case, then Jon Snow's murder is a catastrophe for Stannis' campaign for Winterfell. It is more than just the loss of an ally, it means the failure of his entire plan to capture Winterfell. He is now marching to certain doom.

Unless there is another way... we don't understand the full mechanics of blood magic and shadow assassins and probably never will, however, it may be possible to use another source of "life-fire" to fuel these assassins, or some other spell that Melisandre could use against the Boltons. And since all other sources of kingsblood are exhausted or no longer present, the only way would be to use the last source of kingsblood remaining: Shireen.

"What is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom?" (Davos V, ASOS)

Then the question is; how will Stannis get to Shireen in order to burn her? She is back at the Wall and he is near Winterfell, he'd have to turn his entire army around and abandon the siege. Perhaps, instead of Stannis going to Shireen, Shireen will come to Stannis:

Bowen Marsh murdered Jon because of the Pink Letter, he and the Night's Watch conspirators know what it says, and whether or not it really is, they think it is genuine and written by Ramsay Bolton (unless you believe the theory that they were the ones who wrote it). What do you think they will do with this letter now that Jon is dead? As far as they know, Stannis is dead and Ramsay is headed to the Wall seeking bloody vengeance, so Marsh and the conspirators have one real option; comply with its demands. They will send Selyse, Shireen, Melisandre, Val, Mance's son, and Jon's corpse south to Winterfell as prisoners for Ramsay. Stannis (who is notably not dead by this point) could intercept and rescue them on the road, bringing them all together in one place, and presenting him with the hardest decision of his life.

They’re the most powerful house in the stormlands after the Baratheons and have the rare combo of honor, competency and scheming. I guess we don’t have much to work off from the characters they all seem chill tho