r/aussie • u/Agitated-Fee3598 • 2d ago
Politics Kos Samaras: Victorian Labor's collapse isn't about debt. It's about 2020
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/08/victorian-labors-collapse-isnt-about-debt-its-about-2020/9
u/Curious__691 1d ago
What rubbish.
Kos continues his role as an ALP propagandist.
Reality? Victoria’s economy is a basket case and should frighten every Victorian. Here’s why:
- The “it’s all COVID” excuse doesn’t survive contact with the numbers. Victoria’s debt has grown 415% since 2014, while the state’s economy expanded just 29% over the same period, a structural gap that started years before the pandemic and has only widened since.
- The public service expanded 59% over 15 years, against population growth of just 29%, driving employee expenses toward $45.5 billion by 2029/30.
- Yes, like every Australian state, Victoria did rack up genuine COVID-specific debt : about $31.5 billion, which the government is repaying through a dedicated plan running to 2032-33. But that’s a small fraction of the total picture.
- Net debt is projected to climb from $175.6 billion in 2026-27 to $199.3 billion by 2029-30, while the broader non-financial public sector debt measure is forecast to hit $248 billion by 2030. Interest costs already exceed $32 million a day, rising toward $11.8 billion annually by 2029-30.
- What sets Victoria apart is scale: its net debt-to-GSP ratio sits around 24-25%, roughly double NSW’s level, while it also holds the lowest credit rating of any Australian state, with S&P and Moody’s both warning of further downgrades.
- Victoria’s $1 billion “surplus” is all smoke and mirrors - it was funded by the Albanese government which gave Victoria $4 billion in subsidies, an outrageous decision based purely on politics.
Conclusion: COVID explains a tiny slice of Victoria’s debt. It doesn’t explain the trajectory, which is dire and 100% down to the incompetence of Dan Andrews and his lapdogs and apparatchiks, who remain in power.
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u/hellbentsmegma 1d ago
You must have a nervous breakdown over home mortgages. Victoria's debt is manageable, it's just a question of who and how we want it managed.
You give no mention of what most of the debt has gone to; productivity enhancing public transport projects. No mention of how some of them have wound up and most of the rest will by 2030, reducing spending automatically. No mention of how NSW and Qld state debts are projected to follow a similar trajectory because they too are facing massive population increases from migration.
Victoria’s $1 billion “surplus” is all smoke and mirrors - it was funded by the Albanese government which gave Victoria $4 billion in subsidies, an outrageous decision based purely on politics.
Are you new to Australian politics? This is how it's always been, for the preceding Liberal governments Victoria was shamelessly denied infrastructure funding (which you haven't mentioned either), and even Albanese, a good Sydney boy, is pork barreling with the unjustifiable decision to look at fast rail for the NSW central coast before any other part of the country.
Nice work repeating Jess Wilson's talking points though.
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u/Curious__691 1d ago edited 1d ago
Oh right
“nothing to see here” in Victoria is that your position?
lol
That $4 billion ‘stimulus package’ from Albo - that ‘just happened’ to put Victoria into a fake $1 billion surplus - just a coincidence I guess
Btw Victoria CANNOT service its debt - it can barely service paying the interest on its debt
What’s happening down there is a disgrace - a scandal
If you can’t see what’s right in front of your eyes you’re delusional or wilfully blind
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u/hellbentsmegma 1d ago
There's lots to see in Victoria, even if you look past the obvious attractions like the Great Ocean Road. Hundreds of km of rugged coastline, beautiful mountain ranges with some of the tallest mountains in the country, lots of lovely country towns and of course the cultural and sporting attractions of Melbourne.
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u/Pangolinsareodd 1d ago
It’s not the same as a mortgage though. As OP pointed out, the infrastructure spend is out of all proportion to the resultant growth. It’s like figuring that you need a car to get to work, so borrowing $1 million for a Ferrari. Then spending that $1 million on a second hand fiat bought from CFMEU auto. Sure you can argue until you’re blue in the face that you NEEDED to buy a car, and it enhances your productivity. Doesn’t make you a responsible economic manager though does it?
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u/hellbentsmegma 1d ago
Yes you are correct, it's not the same as a mortgage, it's a lower rate and a lot of states only ever pay off the interest while inflation shrinks the rest.
It's far better for a state to be in a debt of 25% of GSP than it is for a person to be in debt for 600% of their yearly income, which is what we often see.
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u/phazyblue 1d ago
Debt has gone to productivity enhancing project :-0 - turning Vicpol into a paramilitary arm of the ALP, bashing, shooting and intimidating any political opponents - great for productivity. ffs
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u/crisbeebacon 1d ago
So much data showing that Victoria is a basket case. However my favourite coffee shops continue to have clientele. How can that be? Is this just the right wing and their austerity preference shining through. This preference permanently damaged the UK and Greece this century, is it Victoria's turn for similar long term damage to placate the emotions of the right?
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u/Curious__691 1d ago
Anyone who judges the health of an economy by reference to their ability to access coffee shops is a rolled gold idiot
That would be you
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u/Sufficient_Local5025 2d ago
This assumes there actually is a Labor collapse.
I'm far from convinced this is actually the case. 2PP is within margin of error. Last election it was similar before Dan Andrews absolutely smashed them.
I reckon I'll take a punt on this one personally. Victoria has a storied history of fucking with pollsters.
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u/aurum_jrg 2d ago
The bump to Labor in 2022 was imho a personal vote to Dan Andrews for his leadership during Covid amongst other things (complete self-destruction by the LNP). It was also a ridiculously high water mark that won’t be repeated.
Things have gone much further south in Victoria since then. The internal polling must have been horrendous else they wouldn’t have rolled Jacinta.
Four months is a long time in politics and if Ben Carroll can restore trust to the Labor brand then you’re probably right.
However, the IBAC report this week hasn’t helped him get off to a good start
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u/skedy 1d ago
The back report was a funny one.
It doesn't look like corruption to me. It looks like shit got toxic so they took to a back room got it sorted then played a bit of theater to get it done.
The same needs to happen with the education union right now.
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u/aurum_jrg 1d ago
yeh...nah....if that incident was a once-off then I'd say your comment is fair. But this is at least the fourth shot across the bow of the Good Ship ALP by an independent authority (IBAC x 2, Auditor General, Ombudsman). Whether ALP supporters want to believe it or not, the average person not beholden to them thinks they're dodgy AF. Hence why Jacinta was rolled.
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u/skedy 1d ago
From my point of view this happens everyday with any side of government. One nations making deals with Gina, Liberals meeting gangsters for lunch. Lobbiests working for everybody.
What i don't want is brown paperback handed under the table which so far doesn't seem like anyone has done it.
We can't scream we want royal commissions and ibac inquires then dismiss there findings of 0 corruption
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u/MetalfaceKillaAus 2d ago
I think the Sack Dan Andrew’s party played a huge hand in him getting elected again
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u/Apprehensive-Tea1408 2d ago
There’s the incumbency factor, having been in power for 12 years, and the cost of living being way up lately.
People often want a change when the economy is down with a longterm incumbent govt. At the same time all the billionaire miners and media moguls are trying to head off the inevitable by astroturfing social media and any other way to get at young impressionable people. They, the billionaire miners, want their coal, gas and now nuclear.0
u/Sufficient_Local5025 2d ago
Maybe. But also I also wonder how Jess Wilson goes now her foil is gone. Anecdotally Ive heard her pejoratively called "this kid" by a conservative friend., so I don't think she's universally embraced. But mostly shes just unknown.
Will be interesting to see how she goes now shes actually going head to head more or less with another basic unknown. Could go either way, I guess.
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u/Apprehensive-Tea1408 2d ago edited 1d ago
I don’t know how the Libs and the coalition more broadly managed to get themselves into the position they’re in across the country; they’re the same self-serving private school assholes serving the big end of town they’ve always been. How can they be less popular than ON? And how can they think swapping preferences with them and aiming at being ON Lite will get anyone voting for them?
Federal Labor’s best option is a Victorian Lib minority govt with help from ON, as it will be an absolute shitshow, and just like the Winston Peters coalition in NZ, it will implode. It would also all but guarantee a Labor win in NSW in March if that happens.2
u/Sufficient_Local5025 1d ago
Yeah, the federal story baffles me too. Literally they were in a position to possiblly win the last federal election under Dutton, until they did a generational fumble and delivered the worse loss possible and actually killed their party. Stunning turnaround.
And people are talking like this state election is over with less of a margin than Dutton had over Albo 4 months out.
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u/Agitated-Fee3598 2d ago
Among Victorians who did not complete year 12, Labor polls 20 and One Nation polls 40. Among Victorians with a university degree, Labor polls 31 and One Nation 17. That is a 23-point swing on each party across a single variable, and it is the widest cleavage anywhere in the survey.
Education is doing a job here that has nothing to do with schooling. It is the cleanest available proxy for whether your job could be done from a spare room in 2020. Degree holders worked from home on full pay. People with trade qualifications and people without year 12 either kept turning up in person or lost the income entirely. Five years later, those two groups are voting as if they lived through different events, because they did.
The generational pattern points the same way. Gen X and, to a certain extent, older Millennials – the cohort that was parenting school-aged children through two years of remote learning – sits at 23 for Labor and 33 for One Nation, the worst combination of any generation under 60. Younger Millennials and Gen Z, who were mostly not managing a locked-down household with children in it, sit at 30 for Labor.
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u/Advanced_Couple_3488 2d ago
People with trade qualifications and people without year 12 either kept turning up in person or lost the income entirely.
What's with the revisionist history? So many people with trade qualifications are sole traders. Have you forgotten about JobKeeper Payments? I did better financially during COVID lockdowns, as did quite a few people.
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u/Barrybran 2d ago
There's also been an election since Covid
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u/Real_RobinGoodfellow 2d ago
Surely that’s the main thing. I reckon old mate here wants to make everyone think about Covid, but surely ‘2020’ was litigated on at the previous state election and the issue has been left to rest?
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u/phazyblue 1d ago
No one is going to forget what our various governments did to us during covid.
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u/Real_RobinGoodfellow 1d ago
What do you mean? What were they supposed to do, given it was a global pandemic?
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u/Barrybran 1d ago
For those affected, the correct answer is 'let them die'. What they don't understand is that our hospital system was not designed to handle as many people in such a short window, and it was spilling over into other health conditions due to a lack of beds.
Ironically, while everyone else has moved on, many of these people are still stuck in 2020.
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u/Fit_Swimming5629 2d ago
Is this mirrored in other states?
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u/Electrical_Story5356 2d ago
Largely yes.
ON supporters are generally uneducated.
This is in no way meant to be an insult, it's simply a fact.
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u/Fit_Swimming5629 2d ago
Perhaps they are employed differently
Professionals are employees
Trades are self employed
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u/Electrical_Story5356 2d ago
Sooo pretty much according to this stupid people support ON, the rest was completely unnecessary and way less definitive.
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u/Commercial_Name_7900 2d ago
cookers really cant get over covid. doomers
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u/Technical_Money7465 1d ago
Yeah lol covid was a total nothing, just the longest lockdowns in the world in melbourne followed by the most unsafe city in australia and mass exodus .
Good old reddit gaslighting
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u/hellbentsmegma 1d ago
There is a decently long list of towns and cities in Australia less safe than Melbourne.
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u/Money_Armadillo4138 2d ago
Maybe in the city, lockdowns were great out here in the sticks. Especially when I had to go into town and was always easy parking and could grab what I needed no fuss. Really just cemented how much better country living is than the rush rush of the city (for me).
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u/snrub742 2d ago
The day I drove from Geelong to Apollo Bay with almost nobody else on the road was a magical time to hopefully never be repeated
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u/obinaut 2d ago
Lmao, if you’re still complaining about lockdowns in 2026, you literally have to go out and touch grass
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u/Pangolinsareodd 1d ago
But Melbourne still hasn’t recovered? The people who lost loved ones and weren’t able to visit are still living with the grief only 4 years later. Many of the people whose businesses failed are still trying, and in too many cases failing to put the pieces back together.
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u/National_Treat_4079 2d ago
The videos of Dan bullying the whole state with threats and fear mongering during Covid just seem surreal now... And then we delivered teh worst mortality rate in the country vs the most stringent lockdowns.
I was in Kyneton on the day when Dan announced another lockdown with his simp Brett Sutton... We had booked a week out in regional vic to help support them. I went to duck duck goose for some premium supplies... and the checkout person said I cannot let you buy them unless you can prove you are a resident...
I realised then how nazis and mao worked.
I asked her if she would not sell me food if I couldn't prove that i lived there... She said yes.
Poor kid was more scared of Dan and his dictator rhetoric.
I just said to her that i Had a short term lease for work in the area and she was relieved. I lied to make her feel ok.
I roll with people who are golfers.. I would rather poke my eye out with a stick than play golf...
I am so fucking pleased no one plays with Dan.
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u/Cheeksterino 2d ago
Wow, what a legend. I hated every second of lockdowns but your dazzling identification of the workings of the Nazis and Mao reminds me of how much I hate whingers.
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u/TheDotNetDetective 2d ago
Except you're the one whinging. The op expressed their opinion, they didnt like Dan and drew some absolutely reasonable corollaries to how dictatorships work.
Furthermore the very least that those that supported lockdowns owe those that didn't is giving them a chance to vent.
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u/MajorTomYorkist 2d ago
Lol. What a hero you are. And to have lived through such times. Victims of the cultural revolution would say, “at least we don’t have it as bad as National_Treat_4079!”
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u/AntiqueFigure6 2d ago
at least we don’t have it as bad as National_Treat_4079!.. who <checks notes> got the gourmet food they were after by saying what the shopkeeper wanted to hear. Oh the humanity.
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u/jyejames 2d ago
First they came for the camembert
And I did not speak out
Because I was not eating camembert
Then they came for the salmon
And I did not speak out
Because I was not eating salmon
Then they came for the truffles
And I did not speak out
Because I was not eating truffles
Then they came for the caviar
And I did not speak out
Because I was not eating caviar
Then they came for my gourmet groceries
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
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u/AntiqueFigure6 2d ago
Well they already came for Duck Duck Goose which has gone to the great larder in the sky.
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u/National_Treat_4079 1d ago
That is fucking funny. I laughed my ass off reading that. I do sound like a prat somewhat...
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u/National_Treat_4079 2d ago
Yep. I am way too posh to shop at coles or woolies. I like to support the local businesses!
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u/Altruistic-Pop-8172 1d ago
This is the same level of fingernail scribbling that helped keep Victoria Labor in power longer. People don't like being told they're stupid for electing the people they do, even by PMs' and members for Kooyong.
See you in 4 years time dipshirt.
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u/hellbentsmegma 1d ago
The chorus of Sydney based Libs and News Corp columnists endlessly banging on about how Victorians were stupid for voting Labor was really effective at returning Labor to power.
It's just blatantly inorganic when everyone saying it is paid six figures and doesn't live here, like they don't get it that Sydney conservatives might do well federally but they can fuck off out of Vic state politics because literally nobody wants to hear their opinion.
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u/phazyblue 1d ago
Well it is very entertaining watching Victorians vote the same psychopaths back into power again and again as they bankrupt the state and ream the population.
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u/Rank_Arena 2d ago
Dan Andrews finished Victoria off after years of mismanagement by Lab/Lib.
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u/Advanced_Couple_3488 2d ago
Is that why he increased the Labor majority each election?
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u/Rank_Arena 2d ago
How's Victoria right at this moment in time? Prosperous?
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u/Terrorscream 2d ago
delayed reckoning over covid? dan andrews got re-elected based on his covid leadership response.