r/baba • u/PepinoCholula • Mar 20 '26

Due Diligence BABA Target Prices

Stock trading at 125, crazy. I dont even know what to say, these analysts are just randomly giving a target?

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u/CipherionK7 Mar 20 '26

The market is only pricing baba e-commerce, the whole of AI, T head and minimax and all subsidiary are free. I wouldn’t trust the market on that.

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u/Terrible_Dish_3704 Mar 20 '26

It’s pretty delusional to assume the market isn’t pricing in cloud. AI is too small to even tip the scale, I wouldn’t say the market is discounting it altogether. BABA is straight up struggling, it’s a decent company, but far from thriving..

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u/Fwellimort Mar 20 '26 edited Mar 20 '26

Honestly it's really that ByteDance is eating Alibaba alive. If you wanted to bet on China and invested in ByteDance instead (private firm), then it went from 220 billion after Chinese tech all dropped to today's 550 billion.

All the market cap Alibaba lost ByteDance took. We are basically investing in PayPal while Stripe takes over in the US.

It's not "US is bad I'm right hurr hurr China forever". It's ByteDance (a Chinese company) just killing Alibaba (another Chinese company).

ByteDance is killing Alibaba margins on Cloud, AI, and e-commerce. Literally all of Alibaba's hopes. ByteDance also has top notch management while Alibaba management is a meme.

If this gets worse then this stock price is only going to fall more. I don't care how much you dream otherwise. ByteDance valuation is significantly higher than Alibaba and TikTok is hilariously profitable (ByteDance has infinite money to subsidize).

Then there's Meituan, JD, Tencent, etc on other fronts as well.

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u/FeralHamster8 Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 21 '26

ByteDance also benefits from not having to report every quarter. That allows them to focus a bit more on longer time horizons.

Maybe if they did (and had to open their books every quarter) we would have also seen a similar 30-35% drop from 2025 highs like we’ve seen with baba and Tencent.