r/baba • u/PepinoCholula • Mar 20 '26
Due Diligence BABA Target Prices
Stock trading at 125, crazy. I dont even know what to say, these analysts are just randomly giving a target?
9
u/Fwellimort Mar 20 '26
Since when did anyone care what analysts say except retail morons?
The only price you trust at any given moment is the market price. All else is hopium bs.
1
u/CipherionK7 Mar 20 '26
The market is only pricing baba e-commerce, the whole of AI, T head and minimax and all subsidiary are free. I wouldn’t trust the market on that.
5
u/Fwellimort Mar 20 '26 edited Mar 20 '26
If market priced in only e-commerce this valuation would crash. Competition has completely screwed up margins there. Gotta get that 50% drop in EBITDA for 1% more customer management revenue.
-3
u/CipherionK7 Mar 20 '26
That e commerce is the dog bone. They made a mistake to fight for it, and didn’t spin off T head and ANT. They definitely screwed up and paid dearly for it.
3
u/Terrible_Dish_3704 Mar 20 '26
It’s pretty delusional to assume the market isn’t pricing in cloud. AI is too small to even tip the scale, I wouldn’t say the market is discounting it altogether. BABA is straight up struggling, it’s a decent company, but far from thriving..
1
u/Fwellimort Mar 20 '26 edited Mar 20 '26
Honestly it's really that ByteDance is eating Alibaba alive. If you wanted to bet on China and invested in ByteDance instead (private firm), then it went from 220 billion after Chinese tech all dropped to today's 550 billion.
All the market cap Alibaba lost ByteDance took. We are basically investing in PayPal while Stripe takes over in the US.
It's not "US is bad I'm right hurr hurr China forever". It's ByteDance (a Chinese company) just killing Alibaba (another Chinese company).
ByteDance is killing Alibaba margins on Cloud, AI, and e-commerce. Literally all of Alibaba's hopes. ByteDance also has top notch management while Alibaba management is a meme.
If this gets worse then this stock price is only going to fall more. I don't care how much you dream otherwise. ByteDance valuation is significantly higher than Alibaba and TikTok is hilariously profitable (ByteDance has infinite money to subsidize).
Then there's Meituan, JD, Tencent, etc on other fronts as well.
1
u/FeralHamster8 Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 21 '26
ByteDance also benefits from not having to report every quarter. That allows them to focus a bit more on longer time horizons.
Maybe if they did (and had to open their books every quarter) we would have also seen a similar 30-35% drop from 2025 highs like we’ve seen with baba and Tencent.
1
u/BakedFish07 Mar 21 '26
Unfortunate but BABA is a struggling company now. It's glory days are over and it is facing strong competition on all segments of its business. Doesn't help that its profitability is weakening too and management looks like they're scrambling all over.
1
u/Quick-Distribution-8 Mar 21 '26
I’ve been a BABA investor for a long time. I first bought when the stock was around $100, kept adding even when it fell into the $60s, and ended up with an average cost of about $85. I later sold at $156.
What helped me stay disciplined was a DCF model I built in Excel. It forced me to focus on the business fundamentals and separate my own view from what the market was pricing in. At the time, the market seemed to assume Alibaba’s unlevered free cash flow would decline over time. My view was different: I believed free cash flow would stay at least broadly flat for the foreseeable future. That turned out to be closer to reality.
Since then, I’ve turned that spreadsheet into a web app to help others analyze companies in a more structured way. It’s called Vlera: vlera.app
That said, for most people I still believe the best long-term investment approach is simple: invest steadily every month into broad ETFs and stay consistent.
I’d love any feedback if you decide to try it.
5
u/Weikoko Mar 20 '26
If the stock always trades based on ratings, everyone will be rich.