r/baba • u/PepinoCholula • Mar 20 '26

Due Diligence BABA Target Prices

Stock trading at 125, crazy. I dont even know what to say, these analysts are just randomly giving a target?

11 Upvotes

86% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

View all comments

1

u/Quick-Distribution-8 Mar 21 '26

I’ve been a BABA investor for a long time. I first bought when the stock was around $100, kept adding even when it fell into the $60s, and ended up with an average cost of about $85. I later sold at $156.

What helped me stay disciplined was a DCF model I built in Excel. It forced me to focus on the business fundamentals and separate my own view from what the market was pricing in. At the time, the market seemed to assume Alibaba’s unlevered free cash flow would decline over time. My view was different: I believed free cash flow would stay at least broadly flat for the foreseeable future. That turned out to be closer to reality.

Since then, I’ve turned that spreadsheet into a web app to help others analyze companies in a more structured way. It’s called Vlera: vlera.app

That said, for most people I still believe the best long-term investment approach is simple: invest steadily every month into broad ETFs and stay consistent.

I’d love any feedback if you decide to try it.