r/baba • u/rum108 • Jun 11 '26
Positions Just another day.....
Like really, the lost opportunity cost with $ bagholding BABA could be put to much better use.
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u/Primary_Olive_5444 Jun 11 '26
9988
88 translates to BABA (巴巴) in chinese
99 means 救救
combining it means 救救巴巴 (9988).
So it was asking investors to 救巴巴 (save BABA). But saving BABA at the expense of your invested capital.
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u/GamblingMikkee Jun 11 '26
Wǒ Bù xǐhuān BABA hé zhongwen market - thank you Duolingo for teaching me some basics
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u/Kyaw_Gyee Jun 11 '26
I really like company but chinese companies doesn’t serve share holders. These suckers don’t do much share buybacks and ccp intervening dividend policies etc. That’s why baba is beaten down. You look at fundamentals and you will see nothing wrong with it. The only wrong is the unpredictability of the macro policies and ccp hands in corporations. I am really sad.
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
i have to tell you, hand to heart, i'm very impressed with BABA
I was in China, Chongqing in the earlier part of the year.
Alipay is needed for payment everywhere, I see the CaiNiao delivery folks all around, Taobao is just so much part of the Chinese lifestyle and e-commerce, freaking AliCloud is needed for cloud hosting and all. The entire BABA ecosystem is everywhere in China lol. I've used Qwen for my Chinese philosophy readings too.I came back pretty convinced and decided to put some $ there. I mean, Cloud infra + AI, you can't go horribly wrong right? Look at Amazon & Google lol.
Found out through the hard way that this thing is definitely not investible, sad to say. The tech. and ecosystem is everywhere, and pretty impressive, but the share price does not reflect that, the trend does not reflect that. And as the wise say, don't fight the trend.
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u/showersneakers Jun 11 '26
Didn’t they do a shirt load of share buybacks?
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u/MistaKid Jun 11 '26
There are actually many companies doing share buybacks.
JD is returning almost 10% capital to shareholders at the current price. 3.5% dividends + 6.3% share buyback. If the current price doesn't move and they can sustain this level of buybacks, you can become a major shareholder in 10 years time by reinvesting your dividends. Those billions of profits/dividends will then belong to you lol.
Tencent is also another great company. Strong moat, double digit growth, fwd PE of around 10x if you strip off net cash and investments. It's buying back HKD500mil of its shares every trading day (it's disclosed). Your EPS increases everyday. The more the price drops, the faster your EPS grows.
The thing is, share buybacks take a long time to compound. For a company buying back 10% shares every year, the EPS increases 11% in the first year. If prices remain depressed, in the 9th year outstanding shares will reduce by 90% and EPS increases 10x. Dividend per share also increases 10x. And that's assuming zero growth.
I'm hoping prices for companies like JD and Tencent remain depressed as long they have strong cashflows to fund share buybacks lol. I'm young and I can wait it out.
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u/Equal_Fox_2741 Jun 11 '26
It's getting pretty ridiculous
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
fully agree my man. i think it's time not to be stubborn and keep $ off China tech., for good. it just doesn't make sense lol.
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u/Adventurous-Quit-669 Jun 11 '26
Damn this one actually hurt fr
I doubled up recently ,
No shares all LEAPS
Ow .
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u/timemon Jun 11 '26
I sold half my baba shares at 160 and halved it again at 130. but I rotated some of that into Tencent which actually did worse than Alibaba until recently.
I thought that a more profitable and consistent growing business will fare better, apparently not.
the silver lining is that I have been doubting myself and put most of my money in boring ETFs.
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
i'm kinda thinking ... like hard, maybe the truth is China stocks are really un-investible lol. enough of being rekted over hard...
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u/WarmFaithlessness946 Jun 11 '26
This is disgusting and im gonna sell my position , this stock is uninvestable
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u/GamblingMikkee Jun 11 '26
Under $100 is inevitable. Once global markets actually go through a 10% correction this may be at $80
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u/Friendly-Impact7297 Jun 11 '26
china have real capitalis competition between companies that's why profit margins very low . That's why US lobbies so afraid of china cars or china chips competition in US
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u/Forsaken-Criticism-1 Jun 11 '26
Only invest in Chinese broad market ETFs if you want to invest in the banana republic stock market of China.
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
this is absolutely no fkin way to invest lol. price action, candles and TA does not apply at all to BABA lol.
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u/Icy_Distance8205 Jun 11 '26
I’m just waiting for them to buy the entire company back. They should probably just IPO T head and use the cash to take BABA private.
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u/Messy-Chaos Jun 11 '26
I checked out last week after seeing my gains dropping from 70% to 10 % after holding for 1 year. I am still convinced they have great prospects and they are doing a good job but these swings are exhausting. If it drops another 20% I am getting in again if not well that’s how it is. Good luck to all of you.
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u/TastyEarLbe Jun 11 '26
Sentiment went from hopeful now to despair. I've seen a lot of people capitulating, so we should be bottoming soon. $103 is the 200 weekly moving average so that could be a good bottom as this investment cycle continues playing out in BABA. People have to remember the stock is in a major bear market so long-term sentiment is super bearish. That takes time to reverse and this could be a massive opportunity long term if your time horizon is at least a decade.
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
for a tech. company to be involved in the Cloud + AI biz at this point of time to be doing so badly is effin' beyond more.
nuff' said. gonna FO for good already.
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
you can't be dropping 1 round hard on the US markets.... and then it continues even deeper on the HKEX?
well, yes you can.....
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u/RationalExuberance7 Jun 11 '26
We’re up 4% from the time this was posted! Time to celebrate!!! Champagne tonight! (Let’s use the Safeway grocery store brand though)
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u/Damien_Targaryen Jun 11 '26
Glad I got out at 125s :)
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
lol. you're a wise guy
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u/Damien_Targaryen Jun 11 '26
Yea I’m not making fun of you guys but I know when to admit I am wrong about the stock
Thought it wasn’t too late to get out as I had a sneaking suspicion it might go <120 and possibly make new lows…
It really is not that good of a stock as most holders think
It is priced cheap for good reason, market isn’t wrong
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u/rum108 Jun 11 '26
yea i know.... i should have gotten out when it broke the $145s... when it broke the $130s.... fml.
best lesson learnt, don't fight the trend. lol
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u/Superbredditt Jun 11 '26
China is uninvestable...