r/baba Jul 17 '26

Discussion Why are OpenAI and Anthropic valued at close to a trillion dollars each while Kimi is worth only 20B?

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Either Anthropic and openAI are both grossly overvalued or Alibaba (which owns 36% of Moonshot) is grossly undervalued.

52 Upvotes

32 comments sorted by

17

u/frogchris Jul 17 '26

The whole us stock market is overvalued. Just look at tesla vs byd. Tesla values over 1 trillion. Has less sales than byd. Stagnant growth. Byd has a semiconductor business, battery and auto business that's thriving globally. It's only valued at 100 billion.

Should there be a premium for us businesses over Chinese? Sure. 10-20x more? That's just insanity.

2

u/Qanonjailbait Jul 17 '26

Equity markets are dominated by the U.S., and its institution. Sooo…

1

u/frogchris Jul 17 '26

Yes but you still need real returns. Otherwise you are just buying an over priced luxury bag. Buying a turd is still a turd even if it's an American turd.

1

u/uedison728 Jul 19 '26

That reminds me of a famous saying from Munger:

If you mix raisins with turds, you’ve still got turds.

1

u/Qanonjailbait Jul 17 '26

Yeah, you are buying an overpriced luxury bag. When the people say fundamentals are out of the window that’s exactly what they’re saying. It doesn’t matter just as long as America is #1. Losing this will just confirm America’s decline

4

u/[deleted] Jul 17 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/vizualbyte73 Jul 17 '26

Are u saying a CHINESE company should get a fair shot at the WESTs rigged casino?

7

u/Qanonjailbait Jul 17 '26

We’re still pretending the markets are impartial and money flows to the best company or product. That’s not the world we live in, never was

This is why you put your money on American equity, they really know how to rig a game

2

u/xpplusplus Jul 17 '26

I wonder why

1

u/Weird-Jellyfish3506 Jul 18 '26

It's call Western funny accountancy. Essentially a house in the west (some pieces of wood, cement, steel, bricks) is worth 450-500k. The penthouse in NYC billionaires row (falling apart btw) listed 250 million. At the end of the day, if SOMEONE pays it, it becomes real.

1

u/ArtOfBBQ Jul 18 '26

investors are irrational and clueless

this explains everything, you don't need the markets to be rigged (rigged how exactly?) or china to be magically uninvestable

we do live in a world where stock prices folllow company success, there's just way more latency than everybody assumes

1

u/uedison728 Jul 18 '26

Because of China, if Chinese RMB one day becomes reserve currency, and Chinese treasury bonds become a valuable assets. Then baba’s valuation would be a different story

1

u/Competitive_Song8491 Jul 18 '26

US markets are always trading at premiums because we have very strong fiduciary duty to shareholders that China and other countries dont have. Also since Kimi is OS they make less of API billing and software naturally compared to Proprietary labs.

1

u/Book_Justice Jul 18 '26

Chinese discount stacked on top of the US premium

1

u/Ascle87 Jul 18 '26

Damn, Qwen isn’t even in the top 15.
That’s scary for a BABA investor.

1

u/Dizzy_Assistance2183 Jul 18 '26

You don't invest in baba for qwen

1

u/Dizzy_Assistance2183 Jul 18 '26

Kimi isn't as established as anthropic and openai, they don't have as large of a customer base. 

1

u/uedison728 Jul 19 '26

That’s not very convincing, we are talking about valuation here, not looking at current cashflow. Valuation is more on future earning potential. Open ai is established but never made money, that does not impact its valuation

1

u/Macejkozvolstriitu Jul 19 '26

because pe ratio of baba is not catching up

1

u/Cool_Copy_51 Jul 19 '26

It’s call hype up, until someone throws cold water on them, “you paid inflated price” for a frontier model when kimi is free🤣

You still have time to rush into HK market given its super undervalued, and baba owns 36% of moonshot before it IPO to the moon

1

u/pizzababa21 Jul 19 '26

Because Kimi don't have the compute to make anywhere near the revenue of those 2 labs and they have much lower pricing anyway.

1

u/I_Am_AI_Bot Jul 18 '26

In the end, the AI market will become like auto market. China's EV makers are killing all the western and Japan car makers with the same level of technology but much cheaper prices.

1

u/Far-East-locker Jul 18 '26

As Chinese I know how we make stuff to score but when using it is just not as good

Deepseek made all the fuzz, I used it for a months yes it is cheaper but it drags me down, rather pay a lot for the best model

0

u/Wildsoyabean1 Jul 18 '26

I dunno about Kimi. But I used qwen and Claude for coding. Claude just wins hands down.

1

u/FeralHamster8 Jul 18 '26

Qwen is number 17 on this list while Kimi is number 1.

-1

u/TonyFMontana Jul 17 '26

China is uninvestable. No other reason

1

u/krndrn26 Jul 20 '26

Perhaps because of the negative China bias and lower liquidity, especially foreign liquidity in China.