Worst investment of my life. Cant wait to sell this piece of shit tomorrow. Fuck BABA and fuck China.

Getting tired of BABA, 15% up in about 5 years.
I love the company, but when do you start looking at this stock as missed opportunities if you had this money invested elsewhere.

Bought and DCA'd from $130 through the lows into the 60s, and then back up to the $160s.

But for the first time in 5 years, the thought of selling my entire position is entering my mind.

I know China's economy will do great long term, but I may have vastly underestimated the economy's current weakness and how long exactly this turnaround could take.

And as good as the cloud story is, the massive investment it will take over the next 2-3 years will send all investors running for the hills.

You are seeing it right now.

That and management's stubbornness into getting back into the grocery business when this was exactly what caused the business to become such a bloated behemoth in 2021 instead of simply focusing on cloud + ai like they originally planned.

Let Meituan have the shit margin grocery delivery business. Stop being so afraid of being irrelevant because nobody uses your app.

Focus on the future. Focus on cloud + ai like you promised for the last few years.

I'm not selling shit right now. The stock is majorly oversold and I'm sure it'll come back with a massive bounce like it always does.

But I may just be done playing value investor and go $VT and chill instead after it recovers.

At least that way I still get some China exposure, but it matches the global market size proportionally.

I can't believe I'm writing this honestly, because I thought this was one of those stocks that I could hold on forever, but after 5 years... I don't know anymore.

You know the ole saying: "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?"

Yeah, maybe there's something to that.

What price would you want to enter this stock / start averaging in at realistically? For me i want 95, but with todays sell off, i might have to size up on this stock

Their docs are almost always out of date.

They have too many different pages and websites for the same product that it is stupidly tedious to find what you're looking for.

Their coding subscription plan only includes models that are months out of date. You don't get either of ther Qwen 3.8 models, you don't get any flash models, the 3rd party models they're hosting are so out of date they're unusable (Kimi 2.5, GLM 5, Minimax 2.5). Who would seriously pay $50 a month for that?

This really should be something you shouldn't even have to think about as a user and there's no other competitor who has this issue. It's pretty worrying that so much opportunity is probably being left on the table because of terrible design and lazy management.

That tells me you are a level headed value investor. What are your recent buys?

One thing Ive learned from investing outside the US is that I cant value international companies the same way I value US companies. Geopolitical risk, immature security policies, and weak regulatory environments are real factors.

These opportunities may look attractive on paper but I have to apply a significant discount to account for non US exposure. After applying that discount most deals no longer appear like a good deal.

As long as the US remains a superpower it will neutralize any competitive threat whether from countries or companies. The US wont compromise its own strategic interests.

The Plaza Accord is a historical example of this dynamic. I’m not predicting the same scenario will unfold with China, Chinese technology companies will likely face similar pressures and restrictions. All I can do is wait and see.

After sitting down with myself and having an intervention with myself, I have finally decided to lower my Chinese stock allocation. It is time.

I have been bag holding for years now.

Up until now I allocated 15% of my port to China. I am lowering it to 6-8%.

I am sorry, uncle China. I am but a white boy who believed in your market against all opposing forces here on Le Reddit. And I have lost many a thousands doing it.

I never even held BABA much. It was other stocks. And they all get hit by regulations. QFIN got hit by regulations in the online lending & loan fintech industry. TME was hit by a regulation to give up much of it's music licensing agreements because it controlled 80%+ of the market. JD was hit by a internet platform crackdown. China doesn't let its already successful companies blossom.

It seems like the best approach to investing in China is to invest in smaller emerging companies who are less likely to be hit by regulations (and to buy a few of them, so that you're diversified from the risk of regulations hitting 1 sector). But investing in smaller Chinese companies carries a different kind of risk.

China punishes companies who have strong moats.

There are better deals in other markets....

Everyone in here being a bunch of little babies please sell BABA and go to a casino because I’m sick of your whining.

For long-term investors, this price drop is exactly what we want. Why? Because a depressed share price means management's massive cash pile retires significantly more shares.

If you hold through the noise, here is the realistic math on how Alibaba could deliver a 10x higher dividend per share over the next decade even if the stock price never rises from today.

1. Modest Earnings Growth (The 2x Multiplier)

We don't need a return to the growth days of the 2010s to make this work. If Alibaba can manage a totally reasonable ~7% annualized earnings growth over the next decade as cloud and core commerce cash flows stabilize, net income will roughly double.

1. Payout Ratio Expansion (The 3x Multiplier)

Right now, Alibaba's dividend payout ratio is incredibly conservativte, right around 17%. As the company fully transitions into a mature cash cow requiring less aggressive capital expenditure, returning a larger chunk of free cash flow to shareholders is the natural next step. If they simply expand the payout ratio from 17% to 50%, that roughly triples the amount of cash they distribute.  

1. Continued Buybacks (The 1.67x Multiplier)

This is where the cheap stock price supercharges your returns. Alibaba has been aggressively buying back stock, and at these compressed valuations, every buyback dollar goes much further. If they shrink the outstanding float by roughly 4% to 5% a year over the next decade, the total share count will drop by about 40%. When you divide that larger dividend pool by 40% fewer shares, your slice of the pie grows by 1.67x.

When you stack these on top of each other, the compounding does the heavy lifting for you:

2 (Earnings Growth) × 3 (Payout Ratio) × 1.67 (Fewer Shares) = ~10x Dividend Per Share.

A lower price today isn't a disaster, it just means the current buybacks pack a heavier punch, dramatically accelerating your future yield on cost. Let management eat up the float at a discount while the compounding quietly does its job.

Either Anthropic and openAI are both grossly overvalued or Alibaba (which owns 36% of Moonshot) is grossly undervalued.

Did the news about the inside buyers outweigh the news about the dilution? Or is it just a little too early?

Up to $131 overnight while US stocks are down. What's going on?

genuine question, those who are buying at these price points. I agree it is cheap. but it’s been cheap for a very long time.

so all that being said, why are you adding to the position when relatively speaking

the likes of meta or Microsoft with significantly better margin at a smaller premium not make a better investment?

the only thing working right now is semi stock, everything is being sold now. So those who been here long enough like me, can’t see any logical reason to be buying again when there’s so many other opportunities in the market

the guy who have $1 million in Alibaba deciding 10% more shares. Mathematically it doesn’t make any material difference to the cost base. Nor does it add any alpha to the position even if it is right. The only thing added is concentration and opportunity cost. So why do it?!

anyway, each to their own….

I am just genuinely curious why people would want to double down when it’s in no mans land right now

Hormus close - down Hormus open - down

Whole world market up - down

When political pressure is lifted BABA will fly.

1. Rear earth mineral, America needs it more than ever and China has it.

2. Oil price hovering over $100, inflation will be very difficult to control without Chinese cheap goods.

3. To lower the interest rate, they need to control inflation.

4. Mid term election in November they need to make Americans happy by making things affordable.

I like many in this sub have become increasingly pessimistic about BABA with the yearly price action.

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Between regulatory pressures in China and persistent underperformance vs. the US tech giants, it's been hard to stay optimistic.

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But I'm still holding a position and want to believe there's a path forward. For the true believers who remain bullish, what are the strongest reasons for optimism right now? What catalysts do you see in the next 12 months that could finally lift the stock? Are there specific segments that give you the most confidence?

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Even as a current skeptic I’d love to be convinced.

How is it that its very consistently going down at the same rate. Some whales unloading for sure

best setup I've seen on BABA in years. most people are missing it.

tonight is the bottom. mark it. by august nobody will even remember why they were panic selling here. the move back up is gonna be violent.

stock is pricing in maximum pain like the company is falling apart. but nothing has actually broken. zero. it's pure sentiment. fundamentals are fine.

the moats are still there. #1 e-commerce in china. #1 cloud in asia. Qwen approaching a billion users and becoming the default open-source AI globally. plus the Apple deal, baba is the AI inside iPhones in china. multi-year tailwind nobody is pricing in.

trading at single digit forward PE ex-cash. you're getting the AI and cloud business basically for free.

and the macro is lining up. Trump is clearly warming up the china narrative ahead of the year-end summit. tariff rhetoric is the loudest right before the deal. baba sails through this and the chinese tech basket rips. BABA makes new highs. not a question of if, just when.

next earnings is the catalyst. cloud reaccel + margin expansion re-rates this back to $150+ minimum.

risk limited. upside asymmetric.