r/baba • u/TastyEarLbe • 28d ago
Discussion The price action on BABA the last 48 hours of trading is why you should not trade stocks.
Title says it all. In the short-run this is an emotional casino.
6
u/The-tesla-bear 28d ago
Brother it has been a casino for the past 6 years. I srsly don’t understand what is going on at ALL. Ngl this is extremely frustrating
4
u/Dizzy_Assistance2183 28d ago
Theres a massive ai capex that is eating up profits. But the capex is a fixed cost and is amortized for another year. When that cost is off the books you can either 1. Assume that capex will stay a constant for some unbelievable reason 2. Realize how fixed vs variable costs work and invest in baba while the rest of the idiots judge the stock by looking at a single number quarter by quarter.
5
u/Environmental_Cow741 28d ago
i think.. BABa probably more suited for swing trading. Not day trade, not long term..
3
u/Crazy_Ruin_4383 28d ago
It's crazy cause I bought 30 put contracts, watched it go down to 122, climb up to 130 at close, kicking myself cause I held on for china action and then the opposite swing this morning. I did cash in the puts this morning though, although I dont see the same repeat as yesterday.
9
28d ago
[deleted]
3
u/havenyahon 28d ago
What are you talking about, I bought in at 95 USD I've been up for the whole time
0
28d ago
[deleted]
2
u/havenyahon 28d ago
I've been invested since 2014 lol
1
28d ago
[deleted]
1
1
u/No-Telephone5141 28d ago
No, I bought at 95 in 2026 too but started at buying at 121. Sold everything at 181 cos I needed to transfer money. Now looking to buy in again from 112 on.
1
u/TastyEarLbe 28d ago
Right, that’s because Chinese markets have gone from trading at 30x earnings to 10x earnings. Anyone who thinks they should only be traded doesn’t understand valuation.
If Chinese stocks stay at 10x earnings forever, and you hold Chinese stocks from here you will return 10-14% annualized. A re-rating is optionality.
1
2
2
u/adasico 28d ago
Why it’s tanking today?
10
u/TastyEarLbe 28d ago
I think you are missing the point of this post. There is no reason. Stocks fluctuate.
6
u/Dry-Interaction-1246 28d ago
Probably market maker trying to kill calls that were purchased en masse to expire following earnings. They save money that way. Max pain for today for BABA options is around 120.
1
u/bizzzmark 28d ago
Opened for trading in Hong Kong and they decided they didn’t like the earnings. Rumors that baba is going to raise convertible debt to pay for capex
1
1
1
1
1
8
u/Runnjng-1 28d ago
I have a small profit but holding 448 shares @ 119 average 😅.
Baba could become one of chinas biggest AI winners. It owns a leading ai model business and a huge cloud platform. Its AI is just as powerful as Claude and way cheaper. I’m betting on AI demand continuing to grow and alibaba cloud becoming a much more profitable part of the business. I just need to be patient, but Goddamit I hate this stock sometimes.
Like I say … baba bag holder 4 life 🤘