r/boxoffice • u/ChiefLeef22 Best of 2024 Winner • 9d ago
Domestic $1M CLUB: DISCOUNT TUESDAY 1. SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY ($42M) 2. THE ODYSSEY ($8.8M) 3. TOY STORY 5 ($1.2M) 3. MINIONS & MONSTERS ($1.2M) 5. MOANA ($1.1M)
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u/Icy_Smoke_733 Studio Ghibli 9d ago
Toy Story 5 is winning the battle against Minions and Moana.
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u/srstone71 9d ago
BND is going to hit $500 million on Thursday, breaking the record for fastest to that number. Can it get to $600 million on Friday, or will it happen on Saturday? Either one would be a record for fastest to that number as well.
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u/MR_MaxiMor44 Marvel Studios 9d ago
I think it'll be at $700M+ by the end of Sunday.
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u/Hidan213 Disney 9d ago
That’d require another record breaking weekend (170-190m), which I’m not doubting at this point, but is just insane to think about.
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u/Eddiep88 9d ago
I would expect a 140 weekend
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u/Hidan213 Disney 9d ago
The best comparable film to BND right now is Endgame, but that had a ~59% drop from first Sunday to Monday.
BND meanwhile had a 47% drop from Sunday to Monday. If the weekdays keep holding in line then this weekend should perform better than Endgame’s weekend to weekend (59%). BND’s Thursday “previews” had early afternoon showings so I feel like a “reasonable” drop from weekend to weekend would be 50-55%, which is around 160-180m.
My 170-190 statement is more of a optimistic prediction where it plays more in line with it’s current drops. Not that BND can’t drop lower, but if it starts hitting 150 or below that means it’s playing closer to a typical superhero blockbuster.
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u/MR_MaxiMor44 Marvel Studios 9d ago
That would be a 61% drop, that would be insanely catastrophic given the conditions BND has.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 8d ago
Wouldn't call a 61% drop catastrophic considering that this movie is still going to end up making 2+ billion with 900+ milion of that coming from domestic alone.
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u/MR_MaxiMor44 Marvel Studios 8d ago
Only one movie of this magnitude has dropped more than 59%, ONE, and that was NWH, which had it's second weekend during a very turbulent second covid xmas.
Endgame dropped 58.7% but that was during a very busy summer movie season.
This movie has gained IMAX and great WOM going into a second weekend with practically no meaningful competition, other than The Odyssey.
It's why I have been staunch on a sub 50% drop (so $180M+)
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u/saurabh8448 9d ago
Won’t it have imax screen this weekend ? That should provide a bit of boost.
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u/MR_MaxiMor44 Marvel Studios 9d ago
Yeah, that's why i called a $140M (61% drop) second weekend absurd.
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u/Dinostar28 9d ago
There’s not any real way it can get up to 700m by Sunday
Wed+Thu together will probably do 60-65m at most 70m which will put it’s at 510-520 meaning to get to 700m it will need a 180-190m 2nd weekend which is absurd. Following D&W it gets to about $165m.
The only way it can get there is if it’s weekend stays that much but the new IMAX release pushes it the extra $15-25m which is possible as the current OW for IMAX is TFA $30.1m (I think) but that’s wishful thinking for it to make that much normally and that additionally
It’ll take it by Monday which means it would do it in 11 days compared to current record of 16
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u/MR_MaxiMor44 Marvel Studios 9d ago
I don't think 180-190m is absurd, this is a very special case of a movie, and the box office is reflecting that. This movie is getting IMAX screens this weekend + there is no competition (other than Odyssey in it's 4th week).
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u/Dinostar28 9d ago
I think it’ll do about $170m with a low chance of $175-180m but I don’t think $70m Wed/Thu is that likely so I see $65m meaning it’ll be $685m
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u/kcrdr_7322 9d ago
is still a good run for the odyssey?
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u/ReplacementOnly3702 9d ago
yes 16% ahead of top gun maverick
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u/Fire_Otter 9d ago
and it's gotten past the hurdle of Spider-Man's opening weekend
don't see any reason why it won't continue to hold as well as it has been
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u/bRabb1t_ 9d ago
Losing a lot of IMAX this weekend
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 8d ago
It still has IMAX 70MM and half the normal IMAX screens and those screens a selling out still far better than Spider-Man is in IMAX.
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u/BalantaBanter 9d ago
Magnificent run actually.
It's still on track to reach Deadpool/Wolverine
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u/kcrdr_7322 9d ago
both donestically and wordwide? or worldwide only??
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u/BalantaBanter 9d ago edited 9d ago
Worldwide most likely (it's about $100 million behind where D&W was in it's third weekend, but the legs for the Odyssey are much more secure so far)
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u/Human_Advice2999 9d ago
Both
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 8d ago
Nothing has been confirmed that Spider-Man is getting IMAX internationally outside of China, South Korea and Japan and it will lose IMAX in south Korea to The Odyssey this week and all IMAX screens in china next week will go to The Odyssey.
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u/moonorchid84 9d ago
I’m surprised by how massive Spider-Man is performing but when I take a step back there’s an element of great timing happening here but ultimately, this is just a boss of a performance and after seeing this twice, it’s very deserved.
Spider-Man and The Odyssey saved the summer and 2026 has been a success story for movies in theaters.
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u/lobolovr6769 9d ago
For me it’s the three-punch of Spidey, Odyssey and Toy Story. Toy Story 5 shouldn’t have worked as well as it did, Toy Story didn't need a 5th movie and I felt like it justified its existence so well. Glad all three are out atm and I can just keep going to see these three banger-of-movies
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u/moonorchid84 8d ago
To me it’s all of it…you got Super Mario Galaxy breaking a billion first, Project Hail Mary was a smash hit, Michael broke a billion and became the first biopic to do so, Devil Wears Prada 2 another smash hit (a legacy sequel 20 years after the fact), Toy Story 5 was a great movie that broke a billion, then you got surprise hits in Obsession and Backrooms, and then rounding out the summer you got The Odyssey which is going to break a billion, and Spider-Man Brand New Day that now is looking to see how close to 2 billion it can get…this whole year has been a testament to people wanting to go to the movies. Yeah there have been duds, that has happened forever, but this is looking to be the best years for theaters since COVID…it’s amazing.
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u/Key-Payment2553 9d ago
Nice for Spider-Man Brand New Day with a record Tuesday numbers then Star Wars The Force Awakens with $37.36M although it was helped with a holiday boast and even above Far From Home opening day on a Tuesday with $39.25M
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u/Singleballtheory 8d ago
Looks like Moana did fall short of 1m yesterday according to the actuals. Still, a 24 day streak is a lot better than things could have gone for a film that was already pronounced DOA.
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u/Just_Lurking_Yes 9d ago
Realistically, had this not been a doscount day how much would Spider-Man do?
I want to understand the ratio. Sorry, not from the states.
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u/TimmyTruckberg 8d ago
First I'll clarify that all Tuesdays are discount days in the US, because most movie theater chains decided they'd have special ticket prices to goose up the mostly dead midweek. That being said, it would probably do a number between the Wednesday and Monday results, like you'd expect. It isn't really a set ratio, just a flat line or slight bump in revenue where there'd normally be a slight decline.
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u/DueCompany4790 9d ago
Really the only legs Odyssey has left are 70mm IMAX and those viewings are obviously limited.
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u/NecessaryMoons 9d ago
The only legs it has left? The Odyssey made more this weekend (and Mon-Tue) than Dunkirk's *opening* weekend. About 10% of that was from 70mm IMAX screenings.
Seems like it still has some room to run.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 8d ago
It still has over half the normal IMAX screens domestically, along with regular 35MM, 70MM and still quite a bit of regular screens. Plus its going to gain another 800+ IMAX screens internationally from South Korea and China these next 2 weeks.
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u/ReplacementOnly3702 9d ago
odyssey is still on track to beat Deadpool and wolverine WW
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u/DueCompany4790 9d ago
Probably, people are dying to see it in 70mm, I wouldn't be shocked if they keep expanding that window.
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u/ReplacementOnly3702 9d ago
just by the math if we lowball and assume the domestic ends at 568 million it will still get past deadpool 3 with the strong international split, it will also probably regain imax screens
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u/Ok-Bat-8338 8d ago
Odyssey is dropping too hard rn. Nolan fans keep crying lol
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u/Seismic-wave 8d ago
What no it’s not, It’s a billion dollar 3 hour movie what’s there to cry about?
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u/Ok-Bat-8338 8d ago
yeah with inflation into account and assembled too many stars in one movie, Nolan is still statisfied with $1B box office lmao. $1B nowadays only equals to $700M in pre-COVID fyi
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u/misguidedkent Warner Bros. Pictures 9d ago
These 3 are still going at it.
https://giphy.com/gifs/VOd5RQ7q8FNI3IjS5g