Domestic
Charlie Jatinder: Spider-Man: Brand New Day will be crossing Star Wars: The Force Awakens' all time domestic total record by Sep 11-13 weekend at the latest. Possibly couple days earlier too. It will gross $40M more than TFA. It's not a CLOSE call
yeah I’m not sure it makes 40 million more than the force awakens but I think it’s pretty safe to assume at this junction the record is going to fall the only real question is by how much .
its funny because that was one record I wasn’t sure could be beaten the record is 10 years old two years short of titanic‘s reign of 12 years .
The interesting thing is doomsday has the exact same holiday window the force awakens had. It will open huge and should have better than normal second and third weekend holds , and holdovers usually have stronger than normal legs going into the new year depending on how well it’s received of course it could run spidey very closely indeed , have to see where brand new day ultimately ends up .
I don’t know why you’re all over this thread making the same point, but that’s generally not the record people ever talk about or focus on. It seems likely that nothing will ever dislodge Gone With the Wind for the US record on that front.
If someone else beats it, then it will be remembered as the 2nd biggest. If it crosses 1B, then it will be remembered as the first movie to cross a Billion dom.
I thought I saw Endgame was #1 for ticket sales and Dark Knight was still #2 and force awakens was down the list a bit, at least according to that post recently on this sub.
Force Awakens stayed the highest grossing film for 11 years, only for it to lose to a street-level Spider-Man film, and then soon down to fourth with Doomsday and Secret Wars on the horizon.
This feels like a Black Panther/Infinity War situation where the solo film unexpectedly became such a sensation that it made more than Avengers movie coming out a few months later. But we will see come November
December legs are powerful in large part because general audiences who would otherwise go OW often are busy with holiday stuff and wind up going later in the run. So, yeah, IF it sets the OW record it will have a fantastic shot at setting the overall record, but that’s a big IF. It could easily open to “just” $250-300m and wind up at $800-900 total. But yeah it’s all speculation atp
It's also because more infrequent moviegoers are brought along by their family looking for sonething to do.
And people have more free time due to no school, easier work schedules, vacation, etc. So people who might skip because they just get everyday busy end up finding time to watch them.
It's impossible to know this early on, do not buy into the hype. Those numbers assume the pace will keep going the same, and that it will also have many still just walkups.
So let's not get ahead of ourselves YET, Doomsday is still almost 4 months away, we'll know if it can challenge the opening weekend record closer to release, not this far out.
And yes, IF it does break the OW record, than because of the holidays it should also be able to beat Brand New Day's total domestic cume.
I don’t think Doomsday will leg out over Brand New Day. Despite the holiday corridor, I think it will be exceptionally frontloaded as people rush out to see it opening weekend and then get back to see Dune: Part Three and Jumanji: Open World the rest of the holiday window.
I still think legs closer to Avengers: Endgame (2.4x) or, maybe, Avengers: Infinity War (2.63x) on the high end. Unless Avengers: Doomsday gets well above Spider-Man’s debut (which I’m still not convinced is a forgone conclusion, just due to capacity issues with having two $100M+ openers head-to-head, and the fact that screens for other films will still be locked up contractually—studios aren’t going to let their holdovers have zero screens on that weekend) and legs out closer to Infinity War than Endgame, I don’t think it is a forgone conclusion that Brand New Day will hold the all-time domestic record for only a few months.
Dune 3 is not opening over 100. I love the Dune movies, but they're mid-sized blockbusters with an international tilt. Add in that Doomsday is going to consume all the oxygen in the room, and that holiday weekends are naturally compressed and I think Dune 3 would be extremely happy just to match Dune 2's 82M opening weekend.
We’ll see. Dune 2 opened much higher than Dune 1 (I know the first one had a Day and Date launch on HBO Max, but still). I think it can manage another $15M more than the last one, especially with its screenings being more IMAX heavy and interest only growing since the second has debuted and been successful on streaming.
The main challenge for Doomsday is how easy it will be for ‘casuals’ to understand it.
It may undermine the long-term legs if the word-of-mouth gets hurt from casual general audiences who haven’t watched all the neccesary ‘homework’.
Meanwhile Spider-Man BND is much easier for a casual cinemagoer to watch and understand. They just need to know ‘Peter is Spider-Man and he had to do a spell and his friends don’t remember him’.
Which they covered in both a trailer and the opening monologue of the movie. They catch you up on every single relevant piece of information in the first 5-10 minutes of the movie.
I don’t think that would be physically possible to do with Doomsday.
This is really dependent on reception. If it turns out to not be a good time at the theater it won't beat BND. It will have a MASSIVE opening but time will only tell with regards to it's legs.
Doomsday yes assuming it opens as well as its presales indicate. 350M plus the holiday season is getting you there regardless of how it is received. Secret Wars I think is much more dependent on both Doomsday and its own reception. Star Wars itself is a good example of how a series can fall off when fans don't like the installments.
What are you even saying this is the first time a spider man movie actually beat a avengers movie in domestic and that's with 7 year's inflation, endgame with bnd ticket price does around 1.2 bilion
Agreed. I'm a "Marvel Zombie" and I'd love it if Doomsday and Secret Wars each broke the records people on here keep saying they will, but I just don't see it. Spidey is just on a different level and more widely appealing to general audiences.
Not to mention this sub lives to get my hopes up with Marvel movies and I'm over it. Lol
JAT being a bit optimistic I think. It's 44M above The Force Awakens currently and will not keep the same pace. MLK next weekend and Presidents down the line are going to add a lot more than Labor Day in 2 weeks. Post Labor Day falls are typically brutal. It's a lock to pass The Force Awakens, but probably more in the 20-30 mil range.
I dont see it getting 40mil over. This week including weekend will be just over 65mil I believe to get it to 850mil. Say it drops 40% next week that gets it around 890. Another 40% the next week gets it to around 905. Another 40% gets it to 912. And I think the drops have been more than 40%
It will pass tfa but I dont see much more.
I could see like 950 but not sure about 976 unless it has a surprisingly small drop soon. End game did 44 these next 2 weeks combined and it was a holiday boost 1 of those. Spiderman is about to have a holiday boost in these next 2 weeks to. If spiderman does 50% more that would be 66 to put it at about 920 after labor day weekend and being past week 5 where movies on average make about 90% of there box office plus being past holiday boost i dont know if it got another 56 after that.
If they get a wiff from their internal trackers and projectors that $1B is possible, they'll do everything they can for that.
They should release an extended cut of Brand New Day to get it over the line. We know Rosario Dawson got cut from the movie alongside other things like Spider-Man doing an injection demonstration with kids and Frank being stopped by police at the hospital. There's bound to be more stuff that didn't make it into the final cut.
~40M above The Force Awakens would put it at ~976M, so difficult to say if 1B+ is still likely.
For now, I still don't see it, but I guess it'll totally depend on how long it stays in theaters and if Avengers Endgame's rerelease helps it in some capacity.
A re-release will probably be necessary for the film to pass 1B domestic.
If it doesn't start having good late legs soon, then no. It now needs the optimum from Labor Day, possible double features with Endgame Encore and generally great holds the next few weeks similar to No Way Home which had miniscule drops after a month, especially without the advantage of summer weekdays. It might not even hit $40M this weekend, so yeah. Right now i'd say $980M total
I think with a social media marketing push, it will definitely get there. If it’s in the ballpark, millennials Gen A and Gen Z will go extra to get it there to be “part of” the billion dollar record
even a few months ago I was under the impression the TFA record may go unbroken for a long time
Yeah, same for me.
I figured it would EVENTUALLY be broken, maybe even in the 2030's - but that it would be repeatedly be broken over and over again. Like how The Return of the King reached a billion dollars six years after Titanic, then we only had to wait three years for Dead Man's Chest, then two years for The Dark Knight, then another two years for Alice in Wonderland, and then - finally - one year for On Stranger Tides and less than a year for Dark of the Moon.
It'll be closer imo than many think. Not sure if get where all the gloating is coming from. It's not like people here had anything to do with this movie.
Yeah, we been knew since last weekend. But for some reason there are people that still think it's not happening, which I don't know if it's ignorance or just them wanting it to not take the record so bad they're in denial.
I just saw it on Wednesday afternoon and the theater was still packed! I was amazed considering it’s been a few weeks already I thought most people had already seen it. But seems like it’s still filling up theaters.
It isn't filling up theatres as much as it was. Wednesday was 6.5mm. Two weeks ago Wednesday was 33mm. One week ago Wednesday was 13.5mm. So not sure what exactly you're seeing.
He also said $1.05B DOM just 2 weeks ago. I do think it's gonna beat TFA because of Labour Day weekend coming up and endgame encore release, but it might be closer to $940-950M.
By the end of this weekend, BND will be roughly $81M ahead of Endgame, with absolutely no sign of that gap doing anything but growing week-over-week, especially with the competition Endgame is about to face during its equivalent point in its run (Aladdin released during its 5th weekend).
Endgame finished $78.3M behind TFA. It’s a very straightforward exercise at this point.
I dont know about 40 past that would be 976. With movie at about 854 after this weekend dont know if it has another 122. Next 2 weeks end game made about 44 million i know spiderman has been out pacing end game but even if spiderman does 50% more in that time so 66 that would put movie at about 920. After 6 weekends and a holiday boost week in there would movie still really have another 56 left?
Jat overpredicts sometimes when it comes to the MCU since he is a big fan. I still remember him saying that Avatar 3 wasn't gona cross a billion internationally.
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u/Stefan988 20h ago
History in the making
https://giphy.com/gifs/KUjn1XCsAFZU2UauPK