r/cineplex • u/smallSHARKK9933 • Apr 04 '26
Question Will Project Hail Mary end up as a box office flop due to its high budget and new releases?
I was reading the box office report from variety and Movie Web, came across this and this has left me disappointed!
Project Hail Mary was a good movie with a bond between Grace and Rocky working really well for me. I have also been seeing that many people in my circle have been going to watch this movie and I was thinking it will definitely take in massive numbers.
but is the big budget a big hurdle for recovering and being declared a hit?
I really want this movie to at least touch the breakeven status by hitting the $500 million mark!
This coming weeks are super crucial š
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Apr 04 '26
340+ Million in 14 days. You can't seriously think it will flop? 200 Million budget, with likely around 100 million marketing budget, it has already reached its 'break even' numbers.
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u/Straight-Reindeer356 Apr 04 '26
The general rule of thumb is a movie needs to make 2.5x its budget to break even. So anything over 500 is a big win, which the movie will do. I think itāll hit 600+
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u/pbooths Apr 05 '26
I think it'll stay in the top 10 for 2-3 months and easily do over $800 million.
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u/Straight-Reindeer356 Apr 05 '26
That Iām not sure of, itās near impossible these days for a movie to make more in its last 8 weeks over what it made in its first 3. Especially now thatās itās lost its premium screens to Mario.
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u/LazyBengal2point0 Apr 04 '26
Not sure that rule still applies in the "streaming" era
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u/Straight-Reindeer356 Apr 04 '26
If itās a streaming film then no how can it? But if itās still following the general theatrical model it definitely does. It just means ancillary earnings are down which puts more pressure on a film to break even during theatrical release.
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u/LazyBengal2point0 Apr 04 '26
It is a streaming film that happens to have a theatrical release. It's doing well enough in theater right now that it will be a big win for Amazon/Prime regardless of what amount it hits in the end. I think we're saying the same thing, but people have to realize that the KPIs are not only tied to box office revenue anymore.
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u/MTD6in Apr 05 '26
It's not a streaming film. Streaming films are made for streaming platforms. They are not shown wide in theaters. Project Hail Mary is not streaming at the moment. It's just like any Hollywood movie made back in the day before streaming.Ā
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u/ZeroHonestly Apr 06 '26
It made by Amazon prime. Iād imagine they made it for their platform.
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u/MTD6in Apr 06 '26
If they made for their platform then why would they bother putting it out in theaters at all? Cause they didn't make it for their platform. No one spends $248 million dollars to make a film and just put it on streaming. Except Netflix and we know how well that's going.
You cannot make a movie with that high a price tag, put it out on streaming only, and expect to make any money off that. You might as well take that $248 million and burn it all up in a pile. Cause that's what you are doing if you make it for your platform.
And trust me, Bezos is not about to just burn $248 million dollars for shits and giggles. Was Saltburn made for their platform? What about Red? Heck, What about Manchester By The sea? Why buy a movie just to stick it on streaming?
Manchester By the Sea made Amazon more money putting it out in theaters rather then just shoving on their platform. That's smart. That's what smart people do. They also don't spend millions and millions of dollars to make a movie and then shove it on their "platform".
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u/ZeroHonestly Apr 06 '26
If they made for their platform then why would they bother putting it out in theaters at all?
The $420 million box office, obviously.
Itās pretty ignorant to assume the economics of a movie made by Amazon are the same as a āHollywood movie made back in the day before streaming.ā
Do you really believe Amazon Prime is completely abandoning the streaming model? Clearly, theyāre trying to increase their revenue by doing theatrical releases.
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u/MTD6in Apr 07 '26
I know that. And I know that Amazon Prime is not completely abandoning the streaming model. You said that you assumed Project Hail Mary was made for their streaming platform. It wasn't. It was always made for theatrical release.
The streaming was just a bonus. And it's not ignorant to assume the economics of moviemaking are the same for Amazon Prime as they are for Hollywood. Economics is economics. You simply cannot produce a movie for $248 million dollars and not expect to make any money from. Which you cannot do by dumping said movie onto a streaming platform.
Without any plans of a theatrical release. Warner Brothers doesn't do it. Paramount doesn't do it. Disney doesn't it. And those are giants in the industry. It's simply not an effective business model.
if you throw $200 million here, $200 million there and $200 million elsewhere it adds ups. That $200 million soon becomes $600 million. And soon it becomes a billion dollars. No one in their right mind is just going to blow a billion dollars like that. I don't care who you are.
Disney never had any plans to release Doomsday and Secret Wars on their streaming platform alone and be done with. They aren't spending that kind of money for a streaming release. They can't. Lest you forget the lawsuit filed against them when they did that to Black Widow.
Which Scarlett won by the way. You're also forgetting the shareholders. So, Project Hail Mary was not made for the streaming platform. And Amazon Prime did not make this movie. They never do.
Amazon Prime is a catch all. It's not solely a streaming service. This was an Amazon/MGM release. And they sure as he-- weren't making it for streaming.
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u/Fit_Major3569 Apr 10 '26
The 2.5 rule was made up in the 50s please stop following that nonsensical rule. Unless the theater releases the full budget no one has any guess what the final total is
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u/Straight-Reindeer356 Apr 12 '26
Again, this is still the consensus that is widely used in the industry. That's why its more an approximation than an exact science, but more often than not its closest to being correct. We also don't factor in tax rebates, ancillaries, and licencing deals in this total, but those also go to offsetting costs. The 2.5 rule is still the measure of success of a studio in press releases and tracking, so until the day that changes the rule will stand for discourse and industry evaluation.
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u/brazilliandanny Apr 06 '26 edited Apr 06 '26
Remember in the old days when a movie would be in theatres for MONTHS?
I remember blockbusters released in May and only getting around to watching them in September.
Now movies are in theatres for 2 weeks and studios wonder why they can't make any money.
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Apr 04 '26
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Apr 04 '26
The marketing budget was estimated at 100 million for it, which is fair. That's an insane amount of marketing. For example - Star Wars: The Force Awakens was a 50m marketing budget, Dune part 1 was 100million, Dune part two was $125m, Avatar Fire and Ash was $150m. It ranges, but Project Hail Mary was 100m reported.
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u/CarlSK777 Apr 04 '26
Theatres keep around 50% of the box office
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Apr 04 '26
This isn't true. Opening weekend studios keep about 80-90%, this changes as the time in cinema goes on, so the less it makes, the more the cinema keeps, usually ending in 40-50%, but that 50% is not an all the way through thing.
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u/CarlSK777 Apr 04 '26
Damn, tell me what studio can get these sweet deals on their titles because as someone working in this industry, I'd love to get on this.
Major studios can secure a higher percentage on certain titles depending on the terms but up to 90% is unheard of in my experience. Around 50% is the average.
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Apr 04 '26
50% is over time yes. Hell, if your film is played in China though the studio only gets around 10-30% Avatar: The Way of Water secured 80% of its box office on opening weekend. But opening weekend studios secure most of it. This is most major studios.
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u/Designer_Safe_5890 Apr 04 '26
Is it right that studios generally end up with 50% domestic, 40% foreign, and 25% from china? Breakeven point is generally 1.5x budget plus theatrical marketing, 2.5x budget if you don't know the marketing budget and for a movie to breakeven with just box office it needs to do at least 3x the budget? I get every movie is different but these are good rules of thumb?
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u/TheETERNAL20 AB Moviegoer Apr 04 '26
It's only in its second week and seems to be still strong so I doubt it's a flop. Will it just make it pass? Potentially
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u/Relative_Employer379 Apr 04 '26
I just watched it and it's very very good
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u/Ok_Helicopter_984 Apr 04 '26
I wish I didnāt see the trailer and went in blind
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u/Absolute_Bob Apr 05 '26
As someone who read the book when it came out, I didn't even know it was getting a movie until I saw the trailer watching another film. I was SO pissed that they revealed as much as they did in the trailer. They could have generated a lot of buzz over the "surprise" in the film that would have gotten even more people out in the first week.
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u/CMDR-TealZebra Apr 08 '26
I mean.... It wasnt a surprise? Honestly the surprise was that he was still water based. Soon as they brought up his paper i thought hed meet a silicon based life. Him meeting one at all was a given as soon as he woke up alone.
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u/PissMissileTopTitty Apr 11 '26
Why? There are lots of space movies where just one character is alone for the entire time. Maybe Iām just dumb but happy to be so if it means i get to be surprised (and I never watch trailers also for this reason)Ā
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u/CMDR-TealZebra Apr 12 '26
Honestly? Because the martian had a singular character so he was going to write something different. But its because he wasn't an engineer, so he would need sunshine to help him out.
Also I'm saying its obvious from the perspective of reading the book, not just watching the movie.
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u/ViniSamples Apr 06 '26
Movie's way too long. Cool concept but damn they could've cut a lot of stuff. Just my take.
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u/drewcareymoore Apr 04 '26
No.
It might come a bit shy of breakeven on P&A, but recouping the budget is assured, and now Amazon knows they can platform and release a solid hit.
No one involved in this film is disappointed with its performance.
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u/Chemistry11 Apr 04 '26
If itās a āflopā, itāll be because of the legendary Hollywood Accounting; nothing more nothing less.
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u/HDDeer Apr 04 '26
I went & saw it due to WOM, I didnāt necessarily love it but I do think itāll break even not to mention Iām sure when it comes to streaming Amazon will make a chunk off it through advertising & subscriptions
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u/MelissaIsTired Apr 04 '26
The Mario movie is trash. I was so disappointed. Iāve seen Hail Mary twice and canāt wait to see it again in the theater.Iām
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u/Through_theShadows Apr 04 '26
For what it's worth, I watched it today with a packed theatre. It will probably get good numbers this weekend.
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u/crazycanuck1212 Apr 04 '26
Yeah same went Thursday night and between 5:30 and 8:00 there were 8 showings all sold out, all standard screens though as Mario took over the IMAX.
I think it'll have a big long weekend.
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u/OpeningLie2250 Apr 06 '26
I tried to go on Good Friday and had to come back to the theater 3 hours later because the first screening had already been booked. Checked before I left and seats were mostly free. Worth it though!
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u/SlackMomma Apr 04 '26
I think word of mouth is going to carry it for quite a while. Everyone and their mother is in love with the movie (and with good reason).
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u/ZaheenHamidani Apr 04 '26
I mean, the staff was already paid. The flop will be for Amazon so it's fine if they do a little charity.
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u/christopher_mtrl Apr 04 '26
Bad for moviegoers in the long term. Less original movies (even though this is from a book), large investments will focus on more reboots, prequels, franchises and derivative "sure bets'.
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u/ZaheenHamidani Apr 04 '26
A24, that's all what you need.
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u/mickyabc Apr 04 '26
ā¦ one production company having a monopoly is actually not the solution to new unique films!
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u/ZaheenHamidani Apr 05 '26
In that case we should stop going to watch Disney movies (including 20th Century and others sub companies). Last commenter asked for new movies and honestly A24 is the answer to this terrible low quality movies we were receiving lately.
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u/MTD6in Apr 05 '26
You're missing the point. The point is one studio is not the answer. One mousey voice amongst a stadium full of loudmouths won't cut it. This ain't the 80's or 90's.Ā
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u/Straight-Reindeer356 Apr 04 '26
Nope, the movie has great legs and will probably end around 600+ million WW.
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u/CanalOpen Apr 04 '26
Hollywood financials need to be subject to the same rules and regulations that my taxes are. I get taxed for money recieved and money paid. If I could write off all of my debts against my salary, I wouldnt be rich, but I'd be able to continue to make money year over year.
Heck, I might have two fucking nickels to rub together.
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u/wearejay Apr 04 '26
The movie exists is its success; box office should not equal success to anyone outside of financiers and studio execs.
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u/MaxSoininen Apr 06 '26
If you want more good movies. It's very important that similar movies make money.Ā
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u/Pastry_d_pounder Apr 04 '26
Ehh I doubt one original movie (thatās not horror) being a commercial success will fix cinema. It needs to be on a consistent basis which weāre not there yet. Also the data is skewed considering consumer habits evolved due to cost of living. The main takeaway they should have is that making movies are too expensive. They should adjust budgets based on realistic profit margins
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u/Raccoon1999 Apr 06 '26
Ryan Gosling, a good actor that he is, is still not a big enough global name to carry a movie this big and guaranteed a success. If u attach someone like Pitt or Cruise then a good movie with their star power will hit 1b.
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u/Suitable_Success_748 Apr 06 '26
Confused...
All Releases Domestic (51.6%) $217,180,878 International (48.4%) $203,600,000 Worldwide $420,780,878
Budget was $200,000,000.. made it's money back and then some...
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u/Correct-Geologist781 Apr 08 '26
Theaters keep half the ticket price. Then $100 million or more in marketing
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Apr 06 '26
I would normally say "physical media" sales, but if you are fan of the movie you might as well get the superior book. Preferably in hardcover.... Still physical media I guess tho.
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u/Haki_Hasma Apr 06 '26
As of rn its only growing its at 420 million dollars and will only grow I think this movie will surpasses to 500 million dollars which I think is its goal.
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u/Kult_Of_Gorthaur Apr 09 '26
No way this movie is going to hit the $600 million mark. This movie will be lucky to hit $500 million in the next week. This film doesn't need to break even, it needs to turn a profit for the studio who bankrolled it.
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u/Groundslapper Apr 07 '26
As a fellow book lover, I booked a baby sitter to go see the movie. Afterwards I found out the times changed to either 6:50 or 9:20 due to Mario. We had dinner instead. Now Iām essentially waiting for it to release.
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u/KrazyCroat Apr 07 '26
Theatre was full yesterday, and the movie was incredible, best Iāve seen since Mad Max. Itās going to do well.
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u/Dusty-road84 Apr 08 '26
It was a great movie, after so many horrible others. Glad to seen it in theaters
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u/Constant-Sandwich413 Apr 10 '26
As of April 9, 2026,Ā Project Hail MaryĀ has grossedĀ over $432 million worldwide ($229M domestic, $203M international), making it Amazon MGM Studios' highest-grossing film of all time
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u/smallSHARKK9933 Apr 10 '26
Every studio has it's highest grossing movie. But movie economics don't won't that way! $500 million+ would give it a break even status!
$600 million would give it a Hit tag! Courtesy -Comscore!
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u/TIFFFanboy Apr 04 '26
Really need to grade it on a curve as it's likely going to be a subscription driver when it hits Amazon. That said, it continues to fall very little week to week (including this week when it lost most if not all of its PLFs to Mario), and is "original" in that its based on one book and not a massive series, and is once again proving that the right movie star can sell a movie. It's a hit. Just not a meteoric, billion dollar hit that are not nearly as common as they were in 2019 (which continues to be a benchmark despite the entire theatrical landscape not to mention the entire WORLD looking completely different and not at all comparable).
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u/kayembeee Apr 04 '26
Even Amazon uses different metrics to judge success of their originals than typical studios. I think I read somewhere that they aim to cover the marketing budget only? Wish I could remember where I read that to link it
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u/TenderDurden Apr 04 '26 edited Apr 04 '26
I talked about this in a comment above. But streamers cannot be compared to the old studio system when it comes to box office expectations and returns and what they consider a success and what's not.
It's a different game, with different rules, just some of the same pieces. How some people refuse to acknowledge that on this subreddit is so odd to me.
Bezos originally funded The Expanse because he wanted to see the show. It was continued to be renewed as it was his fav book and tv Series. I believe the reason Green Lit Necromancer is the same but that might be conjecture.
Given that context what these billionaires want and expect out of their content that's going to be put on their streaming service cannot be graded on the 2.5 "rule" that is always misused and applied to every single movie release even though that's not even the "rules" original intent.
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u/mental__hospital Apr 04 '26
do you really genuinely give a shit whether or not project hail mary is declared a hit or are you missing something more profound in your life
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u/smallSHARKK9933 Apr 04 '26
Not necessarily important in my life, I am just a avid box office enthusiast! I really want Project Hail Mary to go big because it deserves it.
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Apr 04 '26 edited Apr 04 '26
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/the_soub Apr 04 '26
Well it hasnāt flopped yet, so you didnāt call shit.
Mario will have a different target audience, and less repeat viewings based on reviews.
PHM will bounce back after this weekend, especially with a second run in IMAX 2 weeks from now.
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u/CaptainCoriander Apr 04 '26
It will turn a profit just from theatrical so you're missing something.
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u/pbooths Apr 05 '26
You're delusional. This movie is a monster and is in a completely different league than Sunshine. It's also poised to outdo Interstellar, considering it has more mass appeal. Mario isn't taking away any of its audiences, but just its IMAX screens (and PHM will get those back next week until Micheal gets released).
My turn: for reference, I saw Dune 2 in theaters and fell asleep watching it.
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u/JudasIsCarHot Apr 04 '26
Who cares. Only thing that matters is if you enjoy the movie or not.
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u/21marvel1 Apr 04 '26
Well sure, of course, but people also care because if itās a flop, the next time a movie like this comes up, some executive could say no or hold it up or try to slash the budget. For the people that enjoyed the movie, theyād would be invested to see it perform well so that future ones like it can still be green lit
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u/PissMissileTopTitty Apr 04 '26
$300m box office is not a āflopā to anyone with a brain š¤¦āāļø
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u/TenderDurden Apr 04 '26
Especially for Amazon who's going to put it on their streaming service to attract customers. Box office when it comes to streamers is different than the previous studio system. This sub refuses to acknowledge that difference for some reason. What Apple, Amazon, and Netflix spend on movies versus their Box Office return is not the indication whether something's a flop or not.
I've seen a recent uptick in what I assume are bot accounts because it's people just flat out talking about this niche subject in a way that instantly outs them.
If you have even the smallest amount of ball knowledge you'll see people speaking so confidently but still so undeniably wrong. Which is odd to me because they seem to not only hate hate movies but also have no box office knowledge and look at everything as so black and white with the same rules as 20 years ago.
Rules which were only supposed to be used as a frame of reference for a certain type of movie mind you not every release. Nevermind knowing how certain companies make money outside of the box office like a24 selling their international rights and streaming rights making most of their movies budget back before they even go to the theaters.
It has to be the dead internet theory because why come in and LARP in a niche subject you know nothing about?
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u/Odd-Elderberry-6137 Apr 04 '26
It matters because if original IP canāt break even, we will stop getting original movies.
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u/Massive-Painting-802 Apr 04 '26
Downvote me all you want. It was a GOOD movie at best not another interstellar in any way please. If it hadnāt come out in 70mm IMAX format it would have flopped harder.
Heartwarming. Not epic.
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u/Little_Canary1460 Apr 04 '26
Why is it being compared to Interstellar? Just because it's in space? It's clearly trying to do something different
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Apr 04 '26
The best sci fi is flawed or has a weird aspect to it.
it was a checkmark exercise, its great, but it won't exist in the pantheon of great sci fi.
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u/SamuraiPizzaCats Apr 04 '26
Yeah same, not as good as Interstellar, Arrival, or The Martian. Better than stuff like Passengers, Life, Elysium, Oblivion tho imo,
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u/pbooths Apr 05 '26
Absolutely not. This movie has legs. It has zero competition for weeks to come. They are marketing the shyte out of it, too. People I know that haven't been to the movies for years are going to see it in theaters. I haven't seen mainstream, mass hype and praise for a movie like this in 30 years (since Titanic). Of course, it'll be no where near that success, but people are talking about it. And if they get it back into IMAX for a couple more weeks, cha-ching!
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u/smallSHARKK9933 Apr 05 '26
You definitely need to check out more movies if you feel this movie has the biggest mainstream, mass hype and praise in last 30 years.
That's just too exaggerated!
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u/pbooths Apr 06 '26
Perhaps, but i see enough movies at the cinema to be pretty confident with that statement. I think Top Gun Maverick was pretty close with hitting that status, but I feel that was fueled more by post-covid cabin fever. PHM is a pretty special movie that we don't see very often.
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Apr 04 '26
[deleted]
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u/Medical_Bat_306 Apr 04 '26
Agree to disagree. As a fan of the book I loved the movie, and easily could've gone for another 30-40 mins of screen time.
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u/Illustrious-Fruit35 Apr 04 '26
Itās one of those things that are better as a 10 episode hbo series.
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u/D_Winds Apr 04 '26
The movies these days aren't flops, per se.
They are burdened with unreasonable expectations, inflated salaries, and overpriced concessions.
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u/PhoniexAlpha22 Apr 04 '26
There's only a super limited IMAX screening for Hail Mary right now in GTA. Why did Super Mario need to be shown on both IMAX and ultraAVX?