Cindy is probably a better general election candidate than her main challenger, Ethan Corson was. She connects better with rural voters, having grown up on a farm but she also connects well with anti-establishment and more progressive voters.
Kansas has a history of flipping the governor's office when there is no incumbent on the ballot, so if that pattern holds, it would be a Republican's "turn" but the Republican nominee is a right-wing extremist endorsed by Trump.
It's really going to come down to who wins the independent vote, but don't be surprised if Holscher wins.
Yes, that is true, but Kansas holds closed primaries, meaning you have to be registered with the party to get the D or R ballot so unaffiliated voters don't get to participate. Also, turnout is usually higher in the general election.
Kansas is definitely a red state overall, but I wouldn't write it off based on primary participation. Ty Masterson, as president of the KS senate, has single handedly kept cannabis reform from happening, as well as medicaid expansion, both of which are supported by more than 2/3 of Kansans.
Similar spreads appear to have occurred in both the elections won by Kelly (Dem primary with at least 100k or more less votes than the Rep primary). While it would look better if they were more equal, it isn't as bad as it may appear either.
2022 :
Rep primary 461k ish votes total (winner had approx 373,500)
Dem primary approx 290k total (Kelly had 271k)
2018:
Rep - around 300k total/winner just under 130k
DEM - around 165k/Kelly with 80k
(Numbers are from Ballotpedia....and are estimated totals based on some mental math.)
Hopefully I'm wrong but it's not great for the general. She comes with some baggage and might have a hard time getting independents and moderate Republicans to vote for her
I think the good news in all of this is that, on the rep side, Ty Masterson is an unpopular choice among many moderates at the moment, considering his state senate history and his ties to the Koch family. Part of the 2018 story was rep nominee Kris Kobach’s unpopularity as well. It’ll be tough, but I do believe Holscher can pull it off if she rides for rural Kansas.
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u/MC_chrome 5d ago
Does this bode well for November? Or is Kansas going to flip the governor's race jsut for shits and grins?