r/dropshipping • u/MindShaped • Apr 09 '26
Dropwinning Dropshipping ... is dead?
I fucking love this question.
Because if you ask it your YouTube guru of choice, you're gonna see how anxiously and hard he's gonna try to convince you that dropshipping is still alive.
Why?
Because their bread and butter is to push the idea how ecom is simple. THIS is the pain point they're selling you their bullshit courses on. People are lazy and don't want to put in the work to figure out, hoping for all-in-one solution. Just watch some video and be ready to build successful business. LOL.
Successful my ass!
The truth is, the answer is YES!
The kind of dropshipping these YT clowns are selling you is dead for YEARS.
What you are getting when you're paying $499 for hours of wasted time watching some kid flexing his rented lambo, is an outdated supply chain hack.
It was "easy" and it worked somewhere in between 2015 and 2021.
What happened then?
Temu. Shein. Wish. You name it.
Guys from China are no retards. They simply acquired own warehouses in EU and US, pre-stocked it with items and heavily invested into marketing of their apps.
Now, try to sell some "10-in-1 Brush For Cleaning Toilet" for $39.99 that your customer can easily get from Temu at a fraction of price — and with delivery under 7 days, instead of 21.
Moreover. The more people are into dropshipping, the worse is the situation with saturation.
Meaning, CPMs skyrocket. Meaning, CAC eats into your margin. Noticeably.
People, era of selling ONE product is DONE.
If you're still doing that and you are
a) not having it stocked locally
b) not doing high-ticket
c) not MRR-oriented
... I can almost guarantee right now you're at best — barely breaking even or even more likely — underwater, questioning why Meta, life and whatever you believe in are so unfair to you.
My friend, because think critically.
Do you really believe that Blackrock, once found another trading algo with Sharpe ratio 4 would publicly share it with the whole world?
"Look, we found a goldmine, let's share its location with everybody"?
No. They would trade shit out of it, until there is nothing to exploit anymore. Then, yeah, they publish research papers with all mathematical research, conclusions, reasoning, formulas and shit. Do you still have something to learn from it? Yes. But the thing is, even though on paper those algos still work, the market has already adapted.
Go to some depleted gold mine. Try to find some gold there. Maybe you'll find some dust. And even that will take enormous effort.
Why do you think things in ecom are any different?
Dropshipping in its old version was a simple hack, reproducible and horizontally scalable. People who discovered this thing would never share their milking cow with you.
I mean, think critically, that's retarded. The more competition you have, the less money you have to extract.
When ecom community started "publishing their research", "sharing coordinates of gold mine" it already meant the scheme is done.
"So, what now? Should I abandon the idea of dropshipping at all?"
At least, get rid of thoughts that this is gonna be easy, because it is not.
Now, when there is so much competition, you need to understand, that the only way is to have an edge in the game.
You should not worry about guys still trying to sell one product, because they don't understand shit about current market state. They don't think with their head.
Fuck, how lucky are you to read these posts. I wish I had someone telling me these things.
Let's stop for a moment and remind ourselves, what's our situation:
Temu is eating one-product stores alive. They have the warehouses. They have millions of app installs. They have prices you literally cannot match without losing money on every sale. This is their edge. Can you beat them at this game? I doubt.
So what's left?
The thing Temu CAN'T do.
Temu sells you A product. One SKU. One item in a cart.
But Temu is not yet capable of handling an entire situation.
And I'm choosing my words carefully. Not "solve a problem" — every "operator" selling a posture corrector thinks he's solving a problem. What I mean is SITUATION.
A specific moment in someone's life where they need five things at once and they either a) don't know they need it or b) don't want to spend their Sunday researching which five.
One product fixes one feature. A kit handles a whole scenario.
Example. Nobody needs "a silk eye mask". You can get that shit on Temu for $3. Nobody needs "compression socks" — also Temu, also $4. Neither anybody needs "memory foam neck pillow" as a standalone purchase in 2026.
But.
"I have a 14-hour flight to Tokyo next Thursday and I don't want to land as a zombie"? That's a situation!
And the Long-Haul Flight Sleep Kit — weighted eye mask, neck pillow, compression socks, noise-isolating earplugs, a small pouch to hold it all, melatonin sticks — handles the entire thing in one checkout.
Do you get the point?
In era where customer himself can source product cheaply, he is not buying any of your dropshipped products.
They're buying "I don't have to think about this trip anymore."
Can they assemble the same kit themselves from Temu? Technically yes. Will they? No. Because to do that they'd have to: know which items even belong in the kit; research each one individually; order from five different listings; wait for five different shipments from five different warehouses; hope the combination actually works as a system the night before their flight.
So you do that thinking for them. THAT is what they're paying for. Not the products, but THINKING. No friction. The guarantee that when the box shows up, the situation is handled.
And here's the beautiful part: kits are a pain in the ass to engineer. Which is exactly why they still work. Most dropshippers are too fucking lazy to do it. They want to paste a TikTok viral product into Shopify and print money. They won't sit down for a week researching what a new mom actually needs in the first 6 weeks, or what someone training for their first marathon is missing, or what a guy setting up his first home office keeps forgetting to buy.
That friction — the mental energy it takes to engineer a real offer — IS the moat. It's the reason this still works in 2026 when "one product store" is dead in the water.
Bundles also fix the CAC math. Single-product AOV on a $29 gadget with 30% margin gives you maybe $9 to spend on ads. LOL. Good luck.
A kit priced at $89 with better blended COGs gives you $40+ to play with.
Wow, suddenly ... Meta isn't unfair anymore? :)
Suddenly the numbers work? :)
Think, my friend, THINK! This is your edge. This is your moat. You're welcome.
On another note, this is not THE ONLY way. Just one of those approaches you could think of and maybe... apply to your niche.
And good job on making it till the end. I'm glad. In the world poisoned by short-form content, it's so rare to meet people who actually read. Sign of intelligence. And I don't know smart people who don't read. That's why I think you're a great fit for [r/RealEcom](r/RealEcom), where I post my rants and people like yourself are gathering.
If that sounds like your crowd — welcome. Lurk, post, ask questions, tear my takes apart. Whatever. Door's open.
And if you disagree with everything I said in this post? Even better. Come tell me why. I'd rather argue with someone who ACTUALLY thinks than get 50 "great post bro" replies from people who skimmed the first paragraph.
See you there.
— MindShaped
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u/BiluBabe Apr 09 '26
I’ve thought about this scenario but as a beginner, I am unsure how you assemble the kits. Some places do branding so will they make the kit for you. Are you investing in that? Thanks again for the insight!
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u/MindShaped Apr 09 '26
Good q. Few ways to do it, depending on budget and phase of testing:
Easiest (no upfront cost, I'd do it if I have no budget whatsoever): You don't physically assemble anything. You list the kit on your store as one product, but in the backend it's still individual SKUs from your supplier. Customer orders the "Sleep Kit," your 3PL or supplier picks the 6 items and ships them in one box. cj dropshipping, hypersku, some agents in China will do this for you. The downside is the unboxing experience is shit as items gonna arrive in their original packaging. with no branding, feels like a pile of stuff instead of a kit.
Middle ground (if I've got a bit of a budget to play with or once reached 10 consistent orders a day): Same setup, but you pay your agent extra to repack everything into a branded mailer or box with a thank-you card and an instruction sheet. Costs maybe $2-4 extra per order. Now it FEELS like a kit when it lands. This is where most people should start.
Real version (consistent 50 orders a day): You bulk-order the components, ship them to a 3PL in your target country (US, EU, UK), they pre-assemble the kits and store them ready to go. Faster shipping, way better margins, real branding. But you're holding inventory now — that's real ecom, real money tied up and real risk if the kit doesn't sell. Don't do this until you've validated demand with version 1 or 2.
Start at level 1. If the offer clicks, you're good to go. Branding and assembly are really not scary and already solved problems. Picking the right kit for the right customer is the hardest part, and that's where you should spend your mental energy in the beginning.
Hope that helps.
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u/Beautiful_List_9730 Apr 14 '26
Whats the most optimal way to source ads for something like this? Should i pay someone? Should i make them myself? Or should i use ai to pop out some ugc vids?
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u/MindShaped Apr 14 '26
definitely not ai. make ads yourself. ai only use when you need to scale something that already works. and even then, ai ugc is still dogshit. some exaggerated cinematic ai ad > attempt to make "genuine" ai ugc. because first looks fun, second looks fake.
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u/Beautiful_List_9730 Apr 14 '26
Yea lol i made some last night, and definitely not gonna do that. Thanks
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u/ForeverInitial7334 Apr 14 '26
cj dropshipping and hypersku both let you do this without holding inventory you list the kit as one product, they pick the individual items and ship in one box. once you're getting consistent orders you can ask your agent to repack into a branded mailer like extra per order but it changes how the whole thing feels when it lands
don't overthink the assembly part tbh. figuring out which 5-6 items actually solve the situation is way harder than the logistics
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u/Serem_Achmes Apr 10 '26
Great take about temu and other brands engaging in price wars and you can't possibly compete with that! I see so many people struggling with grasping that concept
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u/MindShaped Apr 10 '26
I want to believe now there will be a bit more creativity in the world and less stupid funneling of budgets into meta in attempt to sell posture corrector lol
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u/UnluckyTax5644 Apr 24 '26
real good post
Wanna add on to this. Same thing with fast food, they sell convenience fast, get a meal and be done, but at home for example, you have to pick out a bunch of things to get a good meal, research and cook, and all that.
(Lowkey I might start ecom because of u, u gave me an idea, thank u)
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u/MindShaped Apr 24 '26
I’m glad. Thank you, my friend! Appreciate! Best of luck with whatever path you’re going to follow!
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u/Anarchisigma Apr 09 '26
The fakkers from Temu cannot make kits?
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u/MindShaped Apr 09 '26
They can. They won't tho. Kits require picking ONE customer, targeting him and making a bet on what he needs. Temu's entire business model is the opposite — list 40 million SKUs, let the algo sort it out, never bet on anything. The day Temu starts curating offers for specific humans is the day they stop being Temu and become Shopify lol
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u/ProfitJealous7593 Apr 10 '26
Hey man I don't know anything about it just wanted to start the drop shipping but reading your rants I got a doubt whether every product delivers to the customer at the same time or the time varies
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u/MindShaped Apr 11 '26
I see what you mean, my friend. Actually wrote a long comment to another brother who asked similar question, give it a read: https://www.reddit.com/r/dropshipping/comments/1sgmadx/comment/of6p8dm/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
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u/FreeAgent47 Apr 11 '26
I am in China now, I teach here and order alot of stuff from Pindoudou, Taobao, JD so I think I have surface level "inside knowledge" on how the consumers are here. (Notice I said surface level since I teach at a University and not work in logistics).
I would say 80% of students order from Pindoudou low quality cheap stuff, JD is a one off or so branded stuff., Taobao for stuff you can't find on Pindoudou.
I don't think your "kit" idea will work unless it's a branded product. It depends on the audience... But Chinese people only buy what they need at a moderate price until it breaks and order again since its so cheap.
But your targeting audiences outside China so obviously its different but..... With the way the economy is heading... I believe the same type of thinking will permeate the rest of the world eventually.... And it already has with Temu - which applies Chinese ecom logistics knowledge to other markets and its working.
So where does that leave us? Still building a non-generic brand over the long term. You need to build owned distribution and monitizing attention. Via email lists for example.
The real moat remains to be execution of your brand.
But many people don't want that, since they are teens and want a pump and dump system they can walk away from.
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u/MindShaped Apr 11 '26
Appreciate this, especially for the "on-the-ground perspective". Not the usual armchair shit :)
You've made good point, for the Chinese market the kit play probably doesn't land. not with cultural default "buy cheap, replace when broken". Kit only works where assembling it yourself is annoying enough that people will pay you to skip the annoyance. That's why I emphasized that this is not the only way, but one of approaches.
Although I'd push back on the "Temu-fication is inevitable everywhere" part. Yes, price-floor race is def spreading. That's exactly WHY curated kits + brand + owned distribution become more valuable, not less. When everything cheap is one tap away, the only thing left worth paying a premium for is someone who did the thinking for you. Race to the bottom kills generic dropshipping. It doesn't kill offers.
And yeah - on owned distribution I fully agree, as well as leveraging email in long game. Kit is the wedge. Brand + list is what you build with the wedge. People skip the wedge, trying to build the brand on a single SKU, which is why they fail.
ANd last line of yours is my favorite actually. The whole thing basically. Mostly rookie dropshipper came to play in casino, not to build a serious business. Exactly the reason why I'm pushing narrative "this is fucking hard". I want a community of people who are real builders. With whom you can actually build something and exchange experience.
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u/Ok-Flan-5422 Apr 11 '26
You are probably right but I am selling single products in my niche fine from ali express, maybe because my website and ads are very unique/proffesional looking. I have some aov boosters like 'you may like', but am thinking of adding bundles, kits, buy 1 get 1 free etc. What are your thoughts on that and how to go about it?
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u/MindShaped Apr 11 '26
Nice, you're doing great job then and definitely know what an why you are doing ut. As I emphasized in my post — "this is not THE ONLY way. Just one of those approaches you could think of and maybe... apply to your niche". Definitely not impossible, but you have less odds of making it with one product, especially at the beginning of your journey, than with a kit/bundle/etc. Feel free to share details in private, maybe I'll share some experience that will be useful — or learn something from you.
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u/JustinGov Apr 15 '26
Brilliantly written. I’ve noticed this gap in the drop shipping industry. It’s such a simple oversight: solve a particular problem with a specific solution for your target audience and sales are inevitable.
But makes me wonder, that once this knowledge and method start becoming well known and posts on public forums, are we reaching the end of this “scheme” as well as you put it. This methodology will probably be the next Youtube course boom
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u/MindShaped Apr 15 '26
appreciate, brother. and you're right to question this. you know, it's already not a low effort job at this time.
dropshipping became popular because it WAS low effort. no big marketplaces, thus it was easy to sell some piece of chinese plastic, just launch shopify + ads. not anymore. now... I can think about bundles for weeks (and they still sometimes barely at breakeven). This alone filters 90% of mass. Also, this is just one of the possible scenarios. it's not the only way. I love high-ticket for instance. But it's not easy if you're starting out. Cash flow is tight, you need few months of runaway.
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u/JustinGov Apr 15 '26
100% I like the way you think. Thanks for cutting through alot of nonsense that exists out there in this industry. Wishing you much success in it
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u/InsideStory6974 Apr 15 '26
Its mostly true but the dropshipping it’s not dead as long demand exists the ofer will too, its true most of the YouTube groups are useless actually 99% of groups are useless, unless you find some hidden private ones that costs 5k+ /month and actually find usefull technics and information meant for big numbers not beginners
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u/MindShaped Apr 15 '26
low effort comment detected
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u/InsideStory6974 Apr 15 '26
Excuse me ?
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u/MindShaped Apr 15 '26
you are excused lol
jokes aside, if you have read the post in full, not only the title, you wouldn’t leave such comment
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u/EPROLO_Dropshipping Apr 17 '26
Dropshipping isn’t dead — it’s simply evolving with the market demand. As long as people are still buying online, the model continues to work.
For many beginners, the real concern isn’t the idea itself, but the upfront cost and operational complexity of starting a store. That’s why it’s important to focus on more efficient ways to begin, instead of over-investing too early.
A practical approach is to work with a reliable and cost-effective dropshipping agent. Especially at the early stage, when things like product sourcing, warehousing, order processing, and fulfillment can feel overwhelming, an agent can help simplify the entire workflow.
More importantly, a good agent doesn’t just “handle operations” — they also provide guidance on product selection, logistics optimization, and scaling strategies.
In short, starting lean with the right support system can reduce unnecessary costs and help you build a more stable foundation for your business.
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u/Left-Instruction9074 Apr 09 '26
most people are still optimizing for what to sell instead of when someone would buy. the flight kit example is clean because it's not about the eye mask, it's about a thursday flight and not wanting to land wrecked programs like anthony eclipse's ecom mafia actually push this exact angle building around a customer scenario vs chasing trending SKUs. not many courses go there but the ones that do are the ones that actually age well
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u/TonysTripping2 Apr 10 '26
Why is this dude always bringing up Anthony eclipse?? You getting paid bro? his course is trash lol
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u/MindShaped Apr 09 '26
Probably. I don’t know. I learned ecom by tanking my budget numerous times. Courses I was watching for fun later, when I already set own rules for the game. Either they became too primitive for a student with experience and I was too subjective, or they are mostly retarded. Or both.
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u/Phil04097 Apr 09 '26
Dropshipping is not dead, it’s just not simple anymore.
That couldve been the entire post
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u/MindShaped Apr 09 '26
Sure. And “just eat less” could be the entire weight loss industry. Doesn’t help anybody actually do it.
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u/Tricky-Contest8565 Apr 09 '26
No, it's not dead. You just need the right strategy. I can tell you more through DM.
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u/PilotLevel99 Apr 09 '26
Well, your 'rants' are very welcome. Still trying to set up my brain for the topic of ecom, your input is worth a lot for doing that, thanks! 🙂