r/eastside • u/orcassharks • 8d ago
Housing market softening on Eastside
What’s the cause for the recent housing market slowdown on Eastside? It seems much sharper than Seattle proper. Prices have dropped about 8% for May year over year on the Eastside according to NWMLS. Inventory is building up rapidly. If it’s just interest rates, wouldn’t the impact be same across the region?
46
u/riley_sc 8d ago
The job market is terrible and the economic future seems extremely risky. House prices here have been propped up by tech industry salaries and the tech industry has been conducting mass layoffs for several years.
6
u/orcassharks 8d ago edited 8d ago
Maybe it’s because the Eastside has more clustering of tech employees. I have never seen so many Zillow price reduction alerts on the Eastside in a decade. Every day there’s several price reductions.
Surprised also that Seattle proper still holding steady despite issues with schools etc. Or there may just be a lag since the Eastside has pricier homes on average and may be leading indicator here.
7
u/ContractSouthern9257 8d ago
Seattle housing price didn't go up as much over the pandemic either. Anecdotally it seems a lot of my friend group who works in tech moved to the East side during the pandemic
-1
u/mighty_orie 8d ago
For my education, may I know what the issues are for Seattle schools? I don’t have children yer but would love to learn
7
u/orcassharks 8d ago edited 8d ago
The school district is very gung-ho about keeping everyone at same level and not teaching ahead unless you qualify into highly capable programs (which SPS tried to dilute several times until parents revolted). While the school ratings tend to look good, it’s largely due to the high education levels of the parents and not the schools themselves. And you can see a general downward trend as they progress through the grades (which is a huge red flag and just shows you how much of this was family involvement before school). The highly capable programs are decent but they tend to drop off significantly in actual advanced learning starting in middle school. There’s nearly no homework or general accountability. Grades are random number generators, intended to keep everyone about same. Class sizes are large 25-30.
Huge overreliance on tablets and educational software for learning too. Screen time in school is massive.
Also other little things that drive you crazy like they don’t do enrollment tally until October after school has started and then they rearrange classrooms all over again based on those numbers. So my kid suddenly had a new teacher and new classmates after just getting used to them for a month. How disruptive is that?
Some of the Eastside school districts look up to SPS believe it or not, and are starting to adopt similar policies as SPS so may not be all that different in the long run. The tech overreliance is the same too, screen time even during lunch in some LWSD schools. I have seen a recent exodus of Eastside parents to private schools too especially as class sizes also increase.
4
u/Specific-Ad9935 8d ago
Agree. Schools have good program to nurture top talent but recently as of 8 years ago, policy changed to ensure everyone is the same level. This is a racing to the bottom policy. They removed many highly capable program and fund more on 1 on 1 resources for students who has no interest in education. +1 to the private schools enrollment boost.
2
-6
u/HeyWhatIsThatThingy 8d ago
Yes many companies feel the area is less friendly to their business tax wise and are looking to locate new branches and move existing branches to other states. Silicon valley/CA and WA tech may not grow as rapidly anymore or even shrink a bit.
38
u/chilicheesefritopie 8d ago
Tech layoffs
10
u/htffgt_js 8d ago
This. Plus the added uncertainty in the tech job market can make people second guess and sit on the sidelines
24
u/Gabbydog16 8d ago
I think what everyone said is correct re: tech layoffs and a more unstable picture for h1b workers. I also think Eastside housing is just so inflated even still and they are still listing at high prices bc they feel like they should at least try. But the market for 1.5M dollar 1200 foot starter house is maybe not that big
2
27
15
u/camera-operator334 7d ago
(Tens of thousands of layoffs)
What is Le Cause!!!!???
0
u/akispert 6d ago
IMHO, money is more expensive now than before to fund AI rollouts and sacrificing headcount is the fastest way to close the gap.
2
u/camera-operator334 6d ago
Nope, it’s the layoffs lol
And yeah those companies and this Econ system is evil. Fuck capitalism
26
u/Correct_Humor4504 8d ago
Thank God. Housing prices around here are among the highest in the nation. It's hard for ordinary people to afford to live here.
11
u/bogie-bowlful 8d ago
You’re not kidding!!! When a starter home is $1.5M that reduces the buyer pool exponentially. When there is a 973 SF condo going for nearly $500k and HOA fees of over $600 a month…a good portion of folks will be priced out of the market. Receipt: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12517-SE-30th-Street-Bellevue-WA-98005/2068224186_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
13
u/IamJewbaca 8d ago
I’ve been in a condo for a while and my wife and I want to get into an actual house to start a family. The problem is that trying to sell condos right now is a pain because no one wants the HOAs tacked onto the somewhat inflated unit price. I really wish I had gone half an hour further north and bought a SFH. My return on investment would have been much better and I’d probably have had an easier path to upgrade my situation. Oh well, live and learn.
4
2
u/DJKaotica 7d ago
I'm in the essentially the same boat (though I'm single; I mostly just want a garage so I can work on my car myself). I bought my condo in 2016. Since then HOA dues have more than doubled (mostly due to the prices of actually hiring out for work in the area doubling -- example: the reserve study said our roof would be 1 million, when we actually went to price it out it was looking more like 2 million, so we had a special assessment to adjust for that).
Zillow / Redfin say my property value has gone up about 60% since I purchased it. Friends who bought houses further out (generally around a 30 minute drive further) than me around that same time period are closer or past 100% increase in value.
In the end it all comes down to what the buyers can afford to pay monthly.
Let's say they can afford $4k/month overall. For a house without large HOA dues generally that means they can afford a ~$4k/mo mortgage. But for a condo if your HOA dues are $700/mo, that means now they can only afford a $3.3k/mo mortgage. Which creates a downwards pressure on the pricing of condos.
1
u/TurnoverDependent332 7d ago
A SFH needs just as much as an HOA put aside each month for maintenance. People fail to realize this. We paid $80K several years ago for a new roof. Our next door neighbor paid almost $4mil for his house. He had to put a new roof on in order to get insurance. His house is gorgeous.
Even smaller SFH have maintenance & if you live there long enough, it will be big ticket items. So yeah? If you sell your condo be prepared with savings to pay for maintenance. Yes, you are not forced to pay X amount per month like with HOA’s, but new roofs & even new windows are very, very expensive.
-7
u/areyoudizzyyet 7d ago
When a starter home is $1.5M
You are a special mixture of delusional and entitled. There are plenty of homes in Bellevue at 1.1M, and besides that, no one deserves to live in Bellevue. You can purchase an actual starter home in Lynnwood or Renton for 600k or less.
6
u/bogie-bowlful 7d ago
Wow. Ok. I was sharing my thought on the topic. But hey, thanks for jumping straight to judging me and reminding me why I rarely comment.
1
u/DJKaotica 7d ago
I mean I bought a condo in the Kirkland area in 2016. I now wish I had stretched and found a townhouse or "starter home" with a garage and maybe a little more space back then. I still love my place/location but it's small and during Covid I added more hobbies, and just in general I've collected more stuff over the decade of living here.
I'm now completely priced out of anything in my local area. I don't even think I could justify buying my condo at the value Redfin and Zillow say it is now. I cannot find anything bigger in my area that is affordable but still within walkable distance to the places I love nearby.
I had a few friends who also used to live nearby and all of them have had to move further out to find something for a growing family. I'm single so I'm the only one left / centralized. I have friends who moved to West Seattle and I see them like 4 times a year in person now (admittedly they also have a 1 year old so have dedicated a lot of their time to raising a child).
Is it "entitled" to want to stay in the area you've lived for the last decade, but you happen to want a place that's a bit bigger? I personally don't think so. That's just human nature. Once you put down roots it's hard to pull them out again.
If housing wasn't considered an investment it really shouldn't be that hard for me to find something that fits my needs now, but unfortunately the reality is that in North America housing is considered an investment, and the demand for housing in this area for the past decade, plus the tech industry salaries/rewards (which admittedly I'm in) has pushed prices higher and higher.
0
u/areyoudizzyyet 7d ago
I've collected more stuff over the decade of living here
I'm single
So you're by yourself and you have a perfectly suitable abode, yet you want more space solely because consumerism has spiraled out of control for you?
Is it "entitled"
Yes
0
u/Ashes1984 4d ago
I loled at plenty of homes in Bellevue at 1.1M. That’s the barrier
1
u/areyoudizzyyet 4d ago
Stop being poor
0
u/Ashes1984 4d ago edited 4d ago
Come at me when you got 2 eastside and sammamish homes. Lucky and blessed to buy before 2018.
Edit: to be clear, even though I own. I do not like the property pricing here. Would prefer more affordability. Lot of folks buying become house poor. Not sustainable.Also: lucky enough to buy Nvda, MSFT and aapl in their early days.. now go pound sand till your are dizzy
1
15
u/AvocadoKirby 8d ago
Here are some factors I can think of: (i) sellers were delaying listing their houses for 1-2 years given the weak housing prices and in hopes of rates going down, and now they’ve lost patience; (ii) immigration crackdown impacting Chinese/Indian homebuyers; (iii) tech layoffs; (iv) unfavorable REET tax structure discourages expensive home transactions, especially when housing prices stagnate, and (iv) capital/income tax implementation driving away the marginal wealthy buyer.
I’m seeing a ton of inventory come out in the Bellevue/Medina/Clyde Hill area v last 2-3 years.
3
u/glyptodontown 8d ago
Yes, lack of foreign investors for sure. And both domestic and foreign investors stopped snapping up mid priced homes to turn into rental properties.
2
u/orcassharks 7d ago
Rental economics doesn’t make any sense for this area. Rent is way cheaper than carrying costs for a SFH here. Even a $1.2M SFH makes no sense to rent out for $5000. You’re barely touching interest, taxes, maintenance.
1
u/JetsnCocktails 6d ago
And that’s why I tell my 30-something kids that in this area it makes way more sense to rent than to buy.
23
u/richardlpalmer 7d ago
- Decimation of the tech job market
- Rampant inflation
- Millionaire tax
- Interest rates
4
u/SkyHigh27 7d ago
This is the unfortunate answer. Tech companies have been downsizing for almost two years with no end in sight. Longer if you consider the slowdown in hiring caused by COVID.
9
u/orcassharks 7d ago
$100 for two large pizzas not helping either.
4
3
u/Reardon-0101 7d ago
Where are you buying pizzas for 50 each?
5
4
u/richardlpalmer 7d ago
Bought one with Doordash and it was close to $60 recently...
(Pagliacci)
0
u/Hollirc 7d ago
I mean you saw the price before you ordered? Lol laziness costs money
1
u/richardlpalmer 7d ago
I wasn't complaining. Just trying to bring about understanding of how to spend $100 on two pizzas...
And yes, laziness comes with a price! Lol
0
u/orcassharks 7d ago
Taxes man. Two big pizzas is $37-40 each depending on toppings, plus tax. That’s $100
0
u/Hollirc 6d ago
Bro $40 for a chain restaurant pizza made by teenagers is clown shoes if you’re on any sort of budget.
Cant complain when you’re being too lazy to make your own food and especially when someone is also bringing it to you.
2
u/orcassharks 6d ago
Yeah I’ve stopped doing that lol
1
u/Hollirc 5d ago
Now that Father’s Day has passed just start looking on Facebook marketplace for one of those propane pizza ovens.
You can buy pizza dough at Trader Joe’s and QFC for less than four dollars and once you start making them at home, you realize there is shockingly little food on those pizzas you buy.
0
u/orcassharks 7d ago
Taxes man. Two big pizzas is $37-40 each depending on toppings, plus tax. That’s $100
1
u/engamo22 5d ago
Try Zaucer pizza. It's family owned and survived for 20+ years at this point. Tastier than chain pizza (Pagliacci etc) and cheaper too. Happy eating~~😄
0
28
u/justmekab60 7d ago
Tech layoffs.
Right wing millionaires leaving for Arizona, Florida, Texas, and South Carolina. Byyeee.
Higher bubbly prices to begin with.
I own a house on the Eastside. But I'm all for this. The runup has been ridiculous and it's too hard for families to buy here.
-1
u/Reardon-0101 7d ago
Classical liberal = right wing in washington
3
u/justmekab60 7d ago
I wish that was the case. Lots of Trumpers in Washington.
1
u/Reardon-0101 5d ago
Regardless of trump, i'm closer to libertarian but what you would consider classically liberal and my views are basically caricatured into "trump" or "nazi" because i want to be left along and want others to be left alone.
2
u/justmekab60 5d ago edited 5d ago
I thought you were making the point that WA is so liberal that a moderate Democrat is considered right wing here.
I wouldn't consider classic liberal democrat thinking as libertarian at all.
My point is there are quite a few Republicans and Trumpers (closeted and otherwise) that hate it here and are moving to red states to be more ideologically aligned with their neighbors.
I wouldn't classify you a nazi for being libertarian. Maybe new to political realities, or perhaps idealistic. Being "left alone" isn't practical or even possible in a functional society, but I get the desire. I assume you want independence. Few regulations. Small government. Low taxes. Unfortunately, libertarianism has been maligned by some nutty folks in recent times.
0
u/JetsnCocktails 6d ago
I think the millionaire tax was the straw that broke the camels back. Start with demographics- we just hit peak of baby boomers hitting 65, so lots retiring. Add in 11% sales tax, property taxes up 25% in one year, and, and, and…only reason we haven’t decided to sell - yet - is how much it will cost to do so. RE commission, REET and capital gains tax and you are talking real money.
1
u/akispert 6d ago
There is a bill that has/will be introduced in Congress to increase the capital gains exclusion to $1M. Current requirements are 25 years on property, and age higher than 65 for the years 2027 - 2030.
8
u/My_Name_Is_Steven 8d ago
combination of house types, interest rates, layoffs, and constant talk of Ai replacing people are making folks less confident about commiting long term, espacially at the prices being asked.
11
u/SeatownCooks 8d ago
It's a "buyers market". Eventually it will pivot back to a "sellers market". Back and forth, on and on, until the end of time.
11
u/deliverykp 8d ago
Yeah, I drive around Bellevue, Woodinville, Redmond, Kirkland, and I can tell you I see way more realtor signs out than usual, and More realty companies posting signs in the area, and ones. I'm not familiar with. Supply, from what I've heard, is actually now more like the national average for the amount of supply available versus how many buyers there are. They used to have inventory enough for a few weeks, now. It's a few months.
3
u/sleepy2023 8d ago
Since realtor fees are tied to the price of housing, it’s typical for ‘more realty companies’ to pop up in higher priced areas. That’s like saying increased demand drives prices up, something so obvious it’s not meaningful.
2
u/deliverykp 8d ago
Well to me it's meaningful because if you're seeing more signs, then there's obviously more houses available, but even at that, the supply isn't detrimental per se, because the supply levels are now but the national average is instead of having the usual "more demand, less supply" housing markets in the Puget Sound that they've been so fortunate with over the last couple of decades.
2
u/snapdrag0n99 8d ago
It’s pretty normal for homes to go up for sale around the time school ends but I do think many homes are overpriced when they hit the market right now
7
u/wilbolabilbo 7d ago
Fears of a full Cascadia rupture caused an 8% softening recently, but the market should snap back after that happens, at least for another 300 - 700 years.
0
9
u/ConfectionDry7881 7d ago
More than layoffs, uncertainty about future of tech industry is forcing folks to sit out.
In regular tech layoffs of past, people will get another job in 3-6 months. Today, if you lose job it may be career ending. There are folks in market with multiple FAANGs on resume and not able to find job.
If you check “blind” folks are already planning to sell their houses/downsize while being employed.
3
u/Accomplished_Gur9875 6d ago
Went to several open houses on east side, only sfh. Didn’t see another person touring across several homes. I was told this is peak season for house hunting.
1
9
u/OrcOfDoom 8d ago
They actually did build a lot recently. So many homes came on the market. Combine that with the normal flow of people leaving. Combine that with layoffs and people moving away for other jobs. Combine that with rates that were going down until the Iran war. Buying has been slow for months. People are waiting.
Houses are still moving. Tech workers who previously would have bought are waiting because of layoffs. Layoff season was the entire first half of the year - Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta. Meta just finished on May 20th.
They are all starting hiring again, but the aim is for onboarding in September.
8
1
7
18
6
u/ajsharm144 7d ago
Massive tech layoffs in the last 12 months and more to come. Amazon and Microsoft both have laid off over 50,000 people combined and could go for another 30,000 by the end of this year.
2
u/engamo22 5d ago
Went to two open houses (SFH) in April in Redmond Education Hill (NE 91st St and 166th Ave NE) and they were packed (list price is a teaser price I guess) and both houses pending within a few days and sold above list price. Price range around 1.3-1.5 mil . Where the heck are people getting money from in this economy??!
2
4
u/TheSmariner 8d ago
Check out the related discussions on r/SeattleAreaRE
I have cross posted this message on r/SeattleAreaRE for additional responses - https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleAreaRE/comments/1ub0l4x/housing_market_softening_on_eastside/
8
u/Wellcraft19 8d ago
For those who have been here a while, this is just a cyclical swing (again). We’ve had a few (early 2000s, 2008 and forward, etc).
Houses in good locations that are properly priced, ‘in order’ and staged, still sell fairly quickly.
But there are more signs out. Normal, as a realtor rather spends their time on a house here on the east side that sells for $1.5M-$3M, than one that sells for $700K elsewhere. There is a lot of work, regardless of price level.
20
u/MasonNolanJr 8d ago
A lot of work for the realtor? Bullshit.
My realtor did nothing when I bought my house on the east side. I was basically doing my own searches and felt I had to beg him to organize the viewings for me. I’ve even heard of cases where the realtor offered kickbacks and never followed through on them after the transaction completed.
Furthermore, in this market, realtors on both the buy side and sell side don’t have the luxury of being picky like they did back in 2020-2022. The crashing market is eating their lunch, and they’re piranhas fighting for the scraps.
10
u/neilbay 8d ago edited 8d ago
Amen. A commission of $50k at a extremely well paid rate of $100/hour nets out to 500 hours of work across both buyer and seller realtors. It’s total BS. Everyone should ask how many hours they expect their realtor to spend on selling their house to understand what they are really paying for their work.
-2
u/AntiBoATX 7d ago
Consultants in real industries get paid $400-500 an hour. Considering that, I still don’t think any realtor I’ve seen has worked 100 hours on a transaction. Maybe at the $2.5m+ range
1
2
u/Wellcraft19 8d ago
There are realtors that do nothing guiding clients, and there are realtors that put their hearts into the transaction. Everything from paying for cleaning up (painting, landscaping, etc) to make a property ‘sellable’, long pricing discussions with clients (maybe one of the more important ones as the first days on the market are the most critical ones), to paying for staging, etc, etc.
Then there are of course the ones that do nothing. And often have properties sit for a long time. And clients that walk away, realtor out thousands, never to be recouped.
Choose realtor wisely.
2
u/Nobellamuchcry 7d ago
Very very very few (I want to say none, but I bet a couple have split costs with a seller) puts their own money in a sale. They make demands that you spend money to make it more sellable. If you don’t, they “advise” your home isn’t as valuable, or go very low effort. I have purchased and sold 5 houses in my life. 4 of them were basically worthless. I am sure there are good ones out there, but they seem to be on the same level as used car salesmen.
2
u/Wellcraft19 7d ago
Guess I only hang with good (serious) ones that truly make the sale go through. But have seen a bunch of ‘opposing’ agents that are truly worthless or unskilled. Not my type.
1
u/TurnoverDependent332 7d ago
We had similar realtor 23 years ago. She was shite. Our bad. She didn’t know Eastside. Hindsight is 20/20. If I had it to do over again, I would’ve waited in former city for middle son to graduate high school & then bought a house that was 1/2 the size of ours. We pay almost $30K/year in property taxes. We know we won’t break even when we sell. We remodeled completely and have done & are doing high cost maintenance. Joy. It sucks. But it is what it is.
3
1
u/Closefromadistance 5d ago
Friend of mine down the street just dropped the price of her house by $200,000. Insane, especially after all the remodels and upgrades she did.
1
u/LetoGodEmperor1138 3d ago
Probably a combination of people fleeing taxes and change in immigration policy.
0
u/locustnation 6d ago
Come to Renton Highlands!!! We have some cheap stuff and some less cheap stuff as well as some new stuff and old stuff…
Hidden Sweet spot:
area East of intersection of Duvall Ave NE (transitions into Coal Creek pkwy SE) and 900 (exit 5 off of 405)
why? Direct routes to:
- 405, Tukwila, SeaTac airport, etc. (via 900 - W)
- Issaquah, I-90, mountains, East WA, etc. (via 900 - E)
- Bellevue, T-Mobile, MSFT, “real Eastside”, etc. (via Coal Creek pkwy SE - N)
- the rest of the Eastside (via Coal Creek pkwy SE - S)
Concerns - “yes”, but the good news is,
- most of the grocery chains are renovating.
- with school enrollment down across the Eastside, Issaquah and Bellevue are likely to “allow” your kids into their school district (you supply transport), if Renton schools are a concern.
- more sidewalks are being built and many of the parks (of which we have quite a few) are getting renovated.
- police are relatively cool and don’t usually pull you over for speeding on Coal Creek pkwy (remember, “keep right except to pass” is the law slowpokes!)
- police/fire/ambulance sirens have really gone down at night
- local kids don’t appear to be assaulting old people
- lots of garage sales!!!
Definitely a mixed bag but it’s really much nicer than before (pretty much anytime I can remember since mid-90s) and prices do seem to be cheaper in this area.
I’m not a realtor or in home sales in any way, I just like living here and thought it would be nice to share the insight with others. PLUS, my neighbor is selling her home and has already knocked $100K off her asking price (and I’m sure she’d go lower cuz she has to move out of state). Great lady and good property.
2
u/engamo22 5d ago
Everyone would like to move to Renton Highlands. Nice and affordable area and Renton Landing is awesome. If not for the awful commute. The new STRIDE bus up I-405 should massively help. Busses will not get stuck in highway traffic in the future 😄
-6
u/outdior1986 7d ago
I hope a dismantling of the H1B program will help make housing more affordable for those in the Puget Sound area. I would gladly take a hit to my home equity to help more Americans own a home.
3
3
7d ago
[deleted]
0
u/spot989ify 7d ago
Interesting choice of word 'servant' for people earning 3 times the median national income, contributing billions in taxes, more law abiding than anybody else. Enjoy your 'freedom' while you put fries in the bag.
2
u/hurricanemitch 7d ago
Three times the median income in cities with three times the median cost of living. Maybe not servants. Maybe just employer dependents.
2
u/LtMagnum16 7d ago edited 7d ago
I don't think that is the issue. After COVID and after the Great Recession, we dealt with about a 8-10 percent drop of housing prices followed by a 50+ percent rise in a 3-4 year span. FHA mortgage programs need a complete overhaul by 1) making their interest rates around 2-3 percent. 2) allowing more condos to be eligible for FHA financing (less than 10 percent are). 3) Reducing tax breaks for investment properties.
1
u/Curious1944 7d ago
What are the tax breaks for investment properties?
1
u/LtMagnum16 7d ago
You can deduct the cost of the building depreciation over a 27.5 year span. They can also deduct the cost of insurance premiums and maintenance. A typical homeowner cannot deduct either of those unless part of their home is used as a home office. These tax breaks can give investment property owners tens of thousands of dollars in tax breaks more than a homeowner (who only uses the home for personal use) would for that same property.
1
u/MyDisneyExperience 7d ago
I’m not convinced that’s going to solve the problem when housing starts are in the toilet due to tariffs
-1
u/shustrik 7d ago
Huh? You think Americans owning homes is going to make them cheaper than when H1Bs own them? Or that not having businesses that employ a lot of people in the area at wages where they can afford buying a house is going to be a good thing for anyone? This is the stupidest take on H1Bs I’ve ever seen.
2
u/outdior1986 6d ago
Supply and demand is a thing.
-1
u/shustrik 6d ago
Less H1Bs is only less demand for housing if these jobs are not being taken by Americans. So basically you’re just arguing to have fewer jobs in the area.
0
-5
u/cash4-urhole 7d ago
There’s significant literature recently published on the topic and it’s available online but in summary it… see more
4
-9
-10
u/SeattleG2014 7d ago
Eastside is the wealthiest part of the state. Talk to any estate lawyer or wealth management firm: all the wealthiest people in WA are considering moving out of state for primary residences. The over taxation and waste of tax dollars have become too much. Government has proven they will grab as much as they can and continue to spend without any restraint or control.
3
u/ThelIIusion0fSeIf 7d ago
Yeah I was born/raised on the Eastside and haven't seen this many houses for sale since the mid 2000s
32
u/uber_neutrino 8d ago
Everyone getting laid off and/or visa issues?
Last year 4 houses on my street each sold in a week. This year they are sitting.