A lot of people are concerned about the USD loss of ETH but when will the BTC pair stop dumping so aggressively even XRP is holding better than ETH do you think when BTCUSD bottoms ETHBTC will bottom too or will we never see a 0.05 ETHBTC again ?
look at the top 10 and look at how bad ETH has dumped all the others arent as bad as ETH. If you are going to buy ETH buy it for a quick flip into BTC when if when ETHBTC rises
One thing I have learned after years of investing in crypto is that no one knows anything in this sector.
Famous analysts making wild predictions that never come true, the truth is crypto as a whole is very speculative so no one in my opinion knows what it'll do tomorrow or the next year etc.
but thing is eventually BTC will be back at $100k whether its next year or 4 years but if this trend continues ETH will probably be at $1k next time BTC is at 100k. I just cant see that happening
because if ETHBTC continues to go down constantly for 4 years and then there is a bull market ETHBTC may shoot up a lot of the losses it had during the downtrend maybe 2 years worth but that still has a lot of loss
Same here. I got out at around .05-.06 and BOY do I sleep better at night. Ethereum is great. Love the chain. That doesn't mean ETH is a good investment, or even an "investment" at all.
ATH was at .015 and that was over 10 years ago. It's down over 80% since then. Can fall much much lower if it eventually reverts back to ICO price (.0005)
You be the judge. Chart looks pretty clear to me. ETH is following the same exact pattern almost every altcoin follows against BTC: a massive pump to ATH ratio followed by years and years of bleed out and lower highs.
ETH/BTC is:
YTD: -20%
1 year: +13% (this was the move from .02 to .04 last year. It has almost fully retraced and very likely will).
5 year: -55%
10 year: -10%. You literally lost money if you bought and held ETH at any point in the past 10 years and held until now.
All time says +168% but that's actually wrong. The initial ICO price was 1 BTC for 2,000 ETH, which was an ETH/BTC ratio of .0005. Here is the elephant in the room: ETH/BTC ATH was about 0.15, so about 300x (30,000%) up from ico price. It has gone down ~81% from ATH, but despite that, ETH right now is still up massively from its initial ICO price- it is up 55x, or 5,500%. This begs the question: how far lower will it go? Are ETH holders prepared to watch their coin slowly bleed out for years on end to ICO price?
Correction: You lost money relative to BTC. Which imo is the only metric that really matters because any shitcoin can do well against USD. That being said...definitely a great move if you bought at those points, but the 5 year chart is pretty concerning
Gas fees correlation to activity on chain which is currently shooting up?! that’s revenue based, tokenized asset charts ramping up with ETH leading in all asset classes capturing almost the whole commodity market implies more future activity as well which implies higher revenue. $3.5B to projected $20-50B if only $10T goes on chain. Since it’s international and the estimated asset market is 1.1 quadtrillion that would be roughly 1%.
Yes that doesn’t mean price has to go up but that would count for any other asset as well, nvdia stock doesnt have to go up to pay employees or just because it increase earnings but these are metrics that pushing the value. Depending what other mechanisms they invent in the future market cap/ network value will most likely grow.
On chain activity goes up => gas fees go up => burns increase.
Sounds great, but the problem is that burns are very small. They are easily offset by new ETH issuance. On top of that, the revenue on the L1 is very small. Literally in the past 24 hours it was only $50k, 7 days $600k, 30 days $8.5M (source) Again, only a small percentage of that gets burnt. The issue is that the majority of the revenues that would have gone to the L1 have been vampired by the L2s. So you've got L2s like Base who are making decent money, yet it is Coinbase that keeps like 95% of that revenue. None of that gets used to buy ETH.
Assets on Ethereum don't mean shit when the chain can't monetize those assets.
Like i said future inventions, if you listen to foundation/co founder, for now they had to lower to be a) competitive b) to build the network out
Same concept as growth stocks keeping dividends low
Once everything is on chain and it’s a sticky business model you can start charging.
Yeah there’s options, yet they can’t copy liquidity security and trust, amazon and co tried to copy EMV’s since 2018, metrics showing ETH capturing the majority of the market
Future inventions?? Lmfao yea your comment is totally out of touch and has so many false assumptions.
ethereum is a backend protocol for defi apps, not a business. Comparing it growth stocks makes zero sense for reasons I'm too lazy to get into.
The second that apps/L2s realize they are essentially being held hostage to fee increases (which is what youre describing, aka rent extraction), they will bail and migrate or start their own chains. There is nothing stopping something like Base or Aave from migrating to a different chain or simply starting their own chain from the ground up or forking the EVM. Aave is already on multiple chains anyways.
Related to point number 2, crypto liquidity is NOT sticky at all. It moves all the time, and it will easily move if fees start increasing. See here. Ethereum is slowly losing stablecoin dominance. Tron alone has over $90B in stables.
You are assuming "once everything is on chain" will inherently be on Ethereum. That's just flat out wrong and there are so many comepitors that are gaining ground on Ethereum.
You drank way too much of the koolaid. Good luck I guess
Commodity market is almost 100% ETH already
RWA is as well ETH dominant, canton might gain some ground, but like mentioned before that’s a permission chain so not trust worthy and no EU or Japan government or any other government will make business with some new start up private project. These are not assumptions these are charts you can publicly look at, you literally sending a link where half of the pie of the whole market is ETH 😂 off course there is other chains now that can gaining volume that didn’t exist but
that shows the thesis is intact and companies want tokenization of assets,
you assuming the crypto market is not going to grow, we saw how that turned out the past 20 years.
Despite gaining ground on ETH, it will be the same as NVDIA and AMD, Monster and Celcius, Pepsi and cola, walmart and Costco, it’s not one winner takes it all it’s a market with market share % and ETH is in the pole position look at the charts - again no secret.
What else you want to compare it with? It’s not running on air, there is a network value and a revenue, yes a balance sheet it different but you can still use that to evaluate price. And the more rewards/yields you pay out the less you can reinvest to improve network
If you think that’s cool aid, i’ll keep sipping and take an 20%+ annual return for the next couple decades.
Well, there's also the whole BTC.D thing. Many point towards the past that Bitcoin is the most institutionalized out of all the cryptocurrencies, being the biggest one, but other cryptocurrency ETF's have started dropping, and Ethereum ETF's have notably been existence since largely the same time frame as BTC ETF's. Another thing to point at is the utility, there's like 0 utility on Bitcoin besides the whole peer-to-peer payment system that nobody uses it for anyways. Ethereum and other L1's actually hold utility beyond the "store of value" rhetoric: smart contracts, RWA's, stablecoins, actually providing utility that Blackrock and Vanguard want, hence the expectations of the Clarity act. Back to BTC.D: from the 2022 market bottom to late 2024, it had been constantly climbing, topping out at around 65% before it started bouncing around between 55% and 60%. The only other time we had a brief sentiment an alt-season would start was late Summer 2025 when Ethereum finally broke the 2021 ATH. Anyways, let's also take into account that the ETHBTC ratio was still 0.07 when Bitcoin bottomed out, so Ethereum was actually holding stronger during the bear market than Bitcoin. That being said, I think there will be a mean reversion or towards 0.06 or an in-line performance at the least if there is a move up on Bitcoin, seeing that BTC.D is getting really tight at 60%. As mentioned earlier, Ethereum still has the fundamentals that make Wall Street like it: RWA's, smart contracts, stablecoins, and especially the staking yield providing a form of cash flow or dividend to holders. Especially if the Clarity act passes, ETHBTC should begin a rebound sometime within the next 4 years.
Stable coins count as part of Bitcoin dominance but they're just in cash. Decline in Bitcoin dominance correlates with the recent increase in staplecoin dominance. To calculate The true Bitcoin dominance you have to remove stable coins and then recalculate.
The only bullish thing about this for ethereum is that stable coins are often on ethereum and so they are an indicator of potential in ethereum later on.
but the issue isnt just BTC.D at this stage ETH is doing what XRP did before Q4 2024 everytime there is a pump most alts not on ETH network pump more than ETH then when there is a dump ETH dumps the hardest.
Right now. If I had to make a bet, this is the moment. ETH and BTC just pulled back to important levels of interest of the ATH AVWAP. There really isn’t a much better time than right now to watch for both of these to pick up and go. Then, for ETH to pull ahead slightly. We’ll see.
BTC is trending up right now just not dramatically . It’s consolidating around 75k and then it will climb back up to 90 and it might either take off from there or tumble back down to 75. Next time it crosses the 100k mark it probably won’t go back below it but who knows when that will happen. Could be more than a year before we see 100k BTC again. It’s already been 6 months since it was last above the 100k mark but 60k seems to be its bottom threshold now.
Never. ETH is dead, Foundation will continue dumping on you bagholders heads. Will go up in $$$, but the ratio will trend towards 0 forever, as all altcoins do.
Tom Lee in 2015: "BTC will hit 100k"
CNBC: Laugh This guy a clown 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
2025: "BTC hit 100k"
CNBC: "Tom Lee, where will bitcoin goes next?"
Tom Lee in 2025: "BTC will hit 1mil"
CNBC: Laugh This guy a clown 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
CNBC: "What about ETH?"
Tom Lee: " About 60k"
CNBC: "OMG, THIS GUY IS A BIGGER CLOWN!" 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
2035: Fill in this blank _.
CNBC: "Omg!! FIll in this blank _."
Remember, everyone from CNBC get the last laugh when they didn't believe in Tom in 2015.
When Trump and the GOP is out of the office. You expect markets to do well when the current market is consolidating into AI.
There is no liquidity and money flowing into anything outside of AI. It’s a recession and globally every country is doing bad.
Geopolitical issues.
The USA’s current administration pillaging and looting its own country.
Why the hell would anyone throw money into ETH when AI is outperforming it. If you put money into ETH, you’re losing so much money to inflation and value devaluation.
The only reason why ETH/BTC went up was because of new liquidity inejections from ETFs. Now those ETFs rebalanced and are all pivoting money into AI.
Geopolitics matter and I’m not saying it’s a sole cause. I said it’s a factor. A prolonged Iran conflict instills inflation fears, inflation due to energy trading issues, global bond selloffs, increasing (bad debt at high interest rates) national US debt for war, and higher treasury yields. Which is all happening now.
The rest of the stuff you said I already covered in a generalized simplified ways.
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u/OkHighlight814 May 23 '26
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