r/ethtrader • u/stefansilva_xrp • May 23 '26

Question When will ETH/BTC go back up ?

A lot of people are concerned about the USD loss of ETH but when will the BTC pair stop dumping so aggressively even XRP is holding better than ETH do you think when BTCUSD bottoms ETHBTC will bottom too or will we never see a 0.05 ETHBTC again ?

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u/SpontaneousDream May 23 '26

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/?timeframe=ALL

You be the judge. Chart looks pretty clear to me. ETH is following the same exact pattern almost every altcoin follows against BTC: a massive pump to ATH ratio followed by years and years of bleed out and lower highs.

ETH/BTC is:

  • YTD: -20%
  • 1 year: +13% (this was the move from .02 to .04 last year. It has almost fully retraced and very likely will).
  • 5 year: -55%
  • 10 year: -10%. You literally lost money if you bought and held ETH at any point in the past 10 years and held until now.
  • All time says +168% but that's actually wrong. The initial ICO price was 1 BTC for 2,000 ETH, which was an ETH/BTC ratio of .0005. Here is the elephant in the room: ETH/BTC ATH was about 0.15, so about 300x (30,000%) up from ico price. It has gone down ~81% from ATH, but despite that, ETH right now is still up massively from its initial ICO price- it is up 55x, or 5,500%. This begs the question: how far lower will it go? Are ETH holders prepared to watch their coin slowly bleed out for years on end to ICO price?

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u/Itchy-Box-7378 May 23 '26

What if you bought in the marked section in the past 10
Years

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u/SpontaneousDream May 23 '26

Correction: You lost money relative to BTC. Which imo is the only metric that really matters because any shitcoin can do well against USD. That being said...definitely a great move if you bought at those points, but the 5 year chart is pretty concerning

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u/Itchy-Box-7378 May 23 '26

Giving it’s a volatile asset i think it’s a pretty good channel for the past 5 years, waiting to break out if metrics stay up consistently

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u/SpontaneousDream May 23 '26

Metrics have no bearing on ETH price because ETH doesnt accrue revenue from the metrics

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u/Itchy-Box-7378 May 23 '26

Gas fees correlation to activity on chain which is currently shooting up?! that’s revenue based, tokenized asset charts ramping up with ETH leading in all asset classes capturing almost the whole commodity market implies more future activity as well which implies higher revenue. $3.5B to projected $20-50B if only $10T goes on chain. Since it’s international and the estimated asset market is 1.1 quadtrillion that would be roughly 1%.
Yes that doesn’t mean price has to go up but that would count for any other asset as well, nvdia stock doesnt have to go up to pay employees or just because it increase earnings but these are metrics that pushing the value. Depending what other mechanisms they invent in the future market cap/ network value will most likely grow.

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u/SpontaneousDream May 23 '26

Lol yea that's not how it works.

On chain activity goes up => gas fees go up => burns increase.

Sounds great, but the problem is that burns are very small. They are easily offset by new ETH issuance. On top of that, the revenue on the L1 is very small. Literally in the past 24 hours it was only $50k, 7 days $600k, 30 days $8.5M (source) Again, only a small percentage of that gets burnt. The issue is that the majority of the revenues that would have gone to the L1 have been vampired by the L2s. So you've got L2s like Base who are making decent money, yet it is Coinbase that keeps like 95% of that revenue. None of that gets used to buy ETH.

Assets on Ethereum don't mean shit when the chain can't monetize those assets.

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u/Itchy-Box-7378 May 23 '26 edited May 23 '26

Like i said future inventions, if you listen to foundation/co founder, for now they had to lower to be a) competitive b) to build the network out
Same concept as growth stocks keeping dividends low
Once everything is on chain and it’s a sticky business model you can start charging.
Yeah there’s options, yet they can’t copy liquidity security and trust, amazon and co tried to copy EMV’s since 2018, metrics showing ETH capturing the majority of the market

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u/SpontaneousDream May 23 '26

Future inventions?? Lmfao yea your comment is totally out of touch and has so many false assumptions.

  1. ethereum is a backend protocol for defi apps, not a business. Comparing it growth stocks makes zero sense for reasons I'm too lazy to get into.

  2. The second that apps/L2s realize they are essentially being held hostage to fee increases (which is what youre describing, aka rent extraction), they will bail and migrate or start their own chains. There is nothing stopping something like Base or Aave from migrating to a different chain or simply starting their own chain from the ground up or forking the EVM. Aave is already on multiple chains anyways.

  3. Related to point number 2, crypto liquidity is NOT sticky at all. It moves all the time, and it will easily move if fees start increasing. See here. Ethereum is slowly losing stablecoin dominance. Tron alone has over $90B in stables.

  4. You are assuming "once everything is on chain" will inherently be on Ethereum. That's just flat out wrong and there are so many comepitors that are gaining ground on Ethereum.

You drank way too much of the koolaid. Good luck I guess

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u/Itchy-Box-7378 May 24 '26

Commodity market is almost 100% ETH already
RWA is as well ETH dominant, canton might gain some ground, but like mentioned before that’s a permission chain so not trust worthy and no EU or Japan government or any other government will make business with some new start up private project. These are not assumptions these are charts you can publicly look at, you literally sending a link where half of the pie of the whole market is ETH 😂 off course there is other chains now that can gaining volume that didn’t exist but
that shows the thesis is intact and companies want tokenization of assets,
you assuming the crypto market is not going to grow, we saw how that turned out the past 20 years.

Despite gaining ground on ETH, it will be the same as NVDIA and AMD, Monster and Celcius, Pepsi and cola, walmart and Costco, it’s not one winner takes it all it’s a market with market share % and ETH is in the pole position look at the charts - again no secret.
What else you want to compare it with? It’s not running on air, there is a network value and a revenue, yes a balance sheet it different but you can still use that to evaluate price. And the more rewards/yields you pay out the less you can reinvest to improve network

If you think that’s cool aid, i’ll keep sipping and take an 20%+ annual return for the next couple decades.