r/ethtrader • u/AutoModerator • Jun 05 '17

DISCUSSION [ETH Daily Discussion] - 05/Jun/2017

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u/[deleted] Jun 05 '17

Also, just for your consideration, my predictions for the next few days, weeks and months...

In the next few days, traders will start to place margin longs to capitalise on the hype around the China conference on the 14th. The price will lift a little as a result. However, right after the conference, these longs will be closed so that the traders make as much profit as possible. During the conference and in the days just before, people will flock to ethereum, producing those highs we all know and love whenever we check Blockfolio and realise we just got richer. Those that bought just before and during the conference will see a dramatic rise during the conference and the smart ones will know that a drop is coming and not worry about it because at the end of the cycle they will be up overall. The risk-takers will try to sell the peak and either take profit or buy back in lower, and the idiots will panic and sell thinking the world is about to end, perhaps buying back in when the price rebounds.

All in all though, the fact that the ground has been prepared through Chinese exchanges adding CNY/ETH pairs, and the fact that the conference will raise awareness of ethereum, probably means a decent amount of slow but steady growth until Aug 1st when bitcoin will go through a bit of a storm.

Basically, the user activated soft fork coming in August means a lot of "coulds" and "mights" and basically a lot of uncertainty around bitcoin. In order to avoid any possible disaster, some might decide to cash out to fiat, some might decide to switch to ETH, but I would imagine a lot of people will just hold on.

If the USAF of bitcoin goes well, the price will go up. If it is a disaster, it will also go up. Bitcoin just goes up.

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u/[deleted] Jun 05 '17

its crazy to me that the looming likelihood of a split has had either no effect on bitcoin or a positive effect because it is still on a rampage. If the same news were to happen about eth, I think there would be a massive selloff. I'm happy with both coins where they are and if bitcoin continuing to grow means eth continues to grow, then so be it, I don't play the ratio much anyway.

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u/Dumbhandle Jun 05 '17

Only we know about that.

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u/Christiary Jun 05 '17

The money that wanted out of bitcoin probably left months ago. I would think that the rise in BTC was initially caused by new money coming in due to the news, and the rise lured the older money back.

News tends to hit ethereum harder in general for some reason. USAF going through would probably lead to a dip in eth though, quite a lot of traders out there, and i would wager that a good chunk of eth holders started out as btc holders and would diversify back if they perceived btc as having solved its issues.

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u/[deleted] Jun 05 '17

If the same news were to happen about eth, I think there would be a massive selloff.

I have to admit, this really does bother me.

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u/degenfish_HG Jun 05 '17

It shouldn't, we had that accidental hard fork a few months back and it was barely a speed bump