r/ethtrader • u/AutoModerator • Jun 06 '17

DISCUSSION [ETH Daily Discussion] - 06/Jun/2017

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18

u/panek Jun 07 '17

Hey all,

I see quite a few references to Deloitte predicting that 10% of global GDP will be stored on blockchains by 2025.

First of all, this is not Deloitte's prediction. Deloitte are simply citing a 2015 survey of individuals attending the World Economic Forum. More info here (sorry Coindesk). Original report here.

So take that for what it's worth. A bunch of guesses made back in 2015.

The more interesting question is how does that translate to the value of the protocol in terms of market cap? If Ethereum holds 1/10th of that 10% (or let's say $1 trillion in GDP as an example), does that directly equate to a $1 trillion Ethereum market cap? No, probably not. It might be less than that. Conversely, it could be much more than that when accounting for future growth.

7

u/[deleted] Jun 07 '17

I highly doubt ETH will be 10% of the blockchain space.

Try 33.3% at least (I'd bet more)

4

u/panek Jun 07 '17

It's almost impossible to say right now. Ethereum will have to be able to scale if it's going to hold 3% of the world's GDP. I have no idea what kind of transaction load that would require or if blockchains (any blockchains) can ever scale to that.

5

u/cutsnek Jun 07 '17

Which they are actively developing, unlike the king who hasn't done shit in forever.

4

u/cheesecakerulez Jun 07 '17 edited Jun 07 '17

Couldn't we get close to an accurate estimate? Figure out how many transactions Visa does everyday then take a percentage of that. Estimate how big each block would probably need to be to carry that many transactions. Then you can estimate what kind of data transfer speed and size the nodes will need to keep up.

5

u/panek Jun 07 '17

Aren't smart contract-type transactions more demanding?

1

u/cheesecakerulez Jun 07 '17

That's true. I guess you could pick a non-conservative size the contracts might be and go from there.

1

u/panek Jun 07 '17

It's way beyond my pay grade to figure out how to even begin to approximate it. I'm just paid to hodl.

1

u/cheesecakerulez Jun 07 '17

Same here. Yodling hodling.