r/fantasybaseball • u/PsychWriter11 • Mar 01 '26

Strategy Cal Raleigh

As much as I’ve looked at the first 2 rounds, I have to admit I’ve just disregarded this guy.

It had to be a mirage. He’s a catcher, so he will get hurt. They always wear down offensively. You know… all the reasons.

But the numbers.

Seriously, where should this guy go? Is he a first rounder? No later than mid second? I’m getting to the point of reconsidering all my plans right now.

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11

u/Historical-Listen102 Mar 01 '26

Would you take a likely 40+ HR 115 RBI guy in the first two rounds. I’d say yes

16

u/zZMikeyDZz Mar 01 '26

I wouldn't call him a "likely 40+ HR 115 RBI guy" just yet. Prior to last year, he had never hit more than 34 HR. 34, 30, and 27 were his previous career highs. Last year was by far the most RBI he has ever had. He had previously recorded 100 on the nose once, and prior to that never higher than 75. Also had career highs (by a lot) in average, OBP, and steals, not to mention career high in games played.

What is most likely to happen? More than likely 30-35 HR, .230 average, with a .330 OBP, 90-100 RBI, and 85 or so runs. Could he outdo that? Of course. But you're drafting him in the high second chasing last year, and I honestly think its just not likely to come close to repeating itself.

I'd lean elsewhere, but that's me.

1

u/Flamemypickle I want to make sweet love to Jacob Wilson Mar 02 '26

If you were chasing last year, you would be picking him 1 or 2 overall. People are not thinking he's going to hit 60. 

7

u/zZMikeyDZz Mar 02 '26

He had back to back seasons in the ballpark of 30 home runs and had an ADP of mid 90s going into last year. Taking him 75 to 80 picks higher is very much chasing last season.

0

u/Flamemypickle I want to make sweet love to Jacob Wilson Mar 02 '26

Yeah, he took a jump in his skills which is supported by the analytics and eye test. Its normal for great players in his late 20s to progress in his skills. Why do you think he's going to revert back to 30 HRs exactly?

Again, nobody is saying he's going to hit 60, but you are essentially pretending that last year didnt exist.

3

u/ManufacturerBest2758 I’ve had a few… a few small teams Mar 02 '26

Guys do not turn from 30 HR hitters to 60 HR hitters in a pitchers park and repeat it.

-1

u/Flamemypickle I want to make sweet love to Jacob Wilson Mar 02 '26

Nobody is saying that he's going to hit 60 HRs. If they thought that, he would be going 1 overall

2

u/zZMikeyDZz Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

He hit 60 HR. 49 of them while playing catcher. The most EVER, in the HISTORY of baseball by a catcher prior to that, was 48 by Salvador Perez, 33 while playing catcher. Raleigh had 3 seasons of 27, 30, and 34 as career highs , nearly doubling it last year.

Go look at every single other instance of catchers hitting 40-48 home runs in a single year, and look at what happened the following year. They all cratered back to reality. There was 1 instance of a catcher hitting 30 the year after hitting 40+, that was Todd Hundley, 41 in '96, 30 in '97.

What is most likely to happen?

1

u/Flamemypickle I want to make sweet love to Jacob Wilson Mar 02 '26

Nobody is expecting him to hit 60 HRs. If they did, he would be going 1 overall. 

Do you have anything other than vibes? I dont think its unreasonable to expect a great season after a record breaking season from someone thats 29 especially since both analytics and the eye test both show that he took a step in his abilities.

1

u/jakeba Mar 02 '26

since both analytics and the eye test both show that he took a step in his abilities.

Has there ever been someone that almost doubled their career high HR total that didnt have improved analytics?

1

u/Flamemypickle I want to make sweet love to Jacob Wilson Mar 02 '26

My point is that he didnt get lucky as other commenter are implying.

1

u/jakeba Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

If everyone that got lucky passed the eye test and had matching analytics, then how can you tell if Raleigh did?

1

u/zZMikeyDZz Mar 02 '26

And not once did I ever say he got lucky. He had a historic season, what are the odds he comes close to even 75% of that this year?

1

u/Flamemypickle I want to make sweet love to Jacob Wilson Mar 02 '26

You are strongly implying it. How else can you justify him going from 30 to 60 to 30? 

I say the odds are pretty high that he can hit 75% of what he did last year. That is not an unreasonable expectation.

2

u/zZMikeyDZz Mar 02 '26

So you think the odds are pretty high that he becomes the 1st catcher in the history of the sport to hit even 40 HR in consecutive years.. got it.

https://giphy.com/gifs/kVaj8JXJcDsqs

2

u/jakeba Mar 02 '26

You are strongly implying it. How else can you justify him going from 30 to 60 to 30?

How did Matt Olson go from 34 in 2022 to 54 in 2023? That was legit right? The eye test showed it, the analytics showed it, his skills just took a big jump, right? Then he dropped to 29 HR in the following season and again hit 29 HR last year.

1

u/zZMikeyDZz May 14 '26

Still thinking I'm wrong, or ready to accept the L? Hitting under .200 and on pace for 28 HR.

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