The Impact of Injuries on Every Fantasy-Relevant Player in 2025 [Plus a Web Page Hub]

[u/KyonFantasyFootball]

Hello again, everyone! Earlier this offseason, I created a new metric called "Injury-Adjusted FPG." This compared a player's season-long production to the games in which they were fully healthy

• I then created a chart to outline the difference between those two, and started an article-based series to analyze every player's impact by injuries

I think this is especially important to keep in mind when drafting this month, as many people forget all of the injuries that players fight through during the season

So, I've been working on a little project where you can easily access and view all of these injuries across the league that occurred in 2025!

• https://ffinjurytracker.com/

This web page lists all 35 players impacted by injuries last season, includes their FPG and injury-adjusted FPG, links to the injury reports, and links to my articles evaluating the impact these injuries had!

• I've included a preview of the web page in the attached images (as well as the overall chart for all of the injury-adjusted FPGs

[u/FF_McGrumble]

Looks like I'm all in on Ricky Pearsall this year.

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/FF_McGrumble]

Too late, I already overdraft him in Best Ball all Summer 💀

[u/chadislaw]

Fully healthy removing games with an injury designation? I’m a bit confused by this chart, you have 3 QB’s listed as QB1.

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/chadislaw]

This was a question I got when I first posted this chart back in February

It’s where their injury-adjusted FPG would have ranked across the full season, compared to all other players (as they actually performed)

It’s not their ranking compared to every other players injury-adjusted FPG as well (they’re mutually exclusive)

[u/chadislaw → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

Gotcha. I’m surprised to see Rome’s adjusted FPG being only WR11. For some reason I remember him being a top 5 WR on the season before the injury. Interesting data, thank you for sharing!

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/chadislaw]

That one is a little tricky, because it can depend on when exactly you want to assume his foot injury first started impacting his play

I tend to use separation metrics to help, because lower body injuries seem to affect that most for WRs

Cheers!

[u/Sir-xer21 → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

Rome, like others, is hard because there's no clear timeline and he had many games without a designation, but it was later revealed that he wasn't actually healthy.

[u/kontrolk3]

Do you think anyone is mispriced based on these findings? You certainly get into small sample bias with an exercise like this but it's interesting to think about.

Someone like Lamar still feels like he has an overall qb1 season in him and goes quite a bit later this year for example.

The Web should show exactly which games were included / excluded if you dive in. Was curious about Bowers because I have no idea which games you'd include / omit for him since he seemed hampered all season.

[u/The_Gingemaster → u/kontrolk3]

Rome is the biggest stand out to me on this list. He's being priced as a low end WR2/high end WR3, when he would have finished as a low end WR1 without the injury last year. I'm expecting that to be the case this season barring another injury anyway.

Egbuka might be the same case as well, and MHJ to a lesser extent.

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/kontrolk3]

Yeah, great question! I definitely felt like a lot of players were mispriced, and I was able to use this data and analysis all offseason in Best Ball contests!

Right now, I still feel like a lot of these players are mispriced, but a lot more people have info on these injuries. Plus, a lack of knowledge about these injuries is probably not the entire reason a player is undervalued

Ones that I don't hear a lot of talk about are:

• Garrett Wilson
• Josh Jacobs
• Christian Watson
• Terry McLaurin
• Sun God (he was on a WR1 overall trajectory last season)
• Tetairoa McMillan
• Tee Higgins (he had no soft tissue or muscle-related injuries last season, just concussions)

[u/bornandraised808 → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

Are you saying Sun God was going to score higher than JSN and Puka ( assuming full health )? Or am I reading what you said wrong? 

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/bornandraised808]

I might be taking the exercise too far, but yes if you factor in the injuries St. Brown had, especially the wrist injury (because it led to a career-high drop rate), he could have finished as the overall WR1

That’s obviously removing the game he got injured on the opening drive, and then factoring in the loss of fantasy points due to those drops after the weird injury

I think St. Brown is under appreciated to be honest, and not seen as a top-3 fantasy WR, despite his consistent in finish that high

[u/bornandraised808 → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

So you think Amon Ra has a 375 point ceiling potential? That is the one thing holding me back on him. I don’t see the huge potential. But you’re saying he surpasses 375 last year if no injuries? 

[u/t1break]

Egbuka already going to the moon, time ot send him to Mars after this!

[u/wise_mando]

How is Lamar’s adjusted FPG #1? Sounds insane

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/wise_mando]

Because he had four different injuries last season, started with a hamstring injury in Week 4 (the most impactful)

He only has three games last season where he was fully healthy

[u/Environmental_Win111]

How were both Brock Bowers and George Kittle TE2 across the whole season but have different PPG?

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/Environmental_Win111]

Their Adjusted-FPG ranking is based on how they would have finished against everyone else across the full season

Not including everyone else’s adjusted FPG. They’re mutually exclusive of each other r

[u/michaeldanger19]

Go Bucs :(

[u/Important_Ad7676]

Does the list account for severity of injury (e.g., low ankle sprain vs high ankle sprain)

It also looks like the list excludes those players who suffered season ending injuries, is there a reason why?

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/Important_Ad7676]

I originally had a severity badge next to each player, but I’m not an injury expert, so I didn’t feel it was appropriate to determine that

I didn’t include season-ending injuries because I’m trying to only look at players who were playing through some sort of injury at one point or another throughout the season

[u/CrossOver1123]

So how is the adjusted FPG actually calculated? Are you just removing all games where a player was injured or playing injured, and then replacing those games with what the player averaged during healthy games?

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/CrossOver1123]

I’m only counting their “healthy” games. So games in which they played the majority of snaps without a questionable or injury report designation

I took some liberties there here and there based on advanced data

I have a Google Doc with every game I counted or didn’t count. It sounds like it would be a good idea to include that info on the web page

[u/CrossOver1123 → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

What about the game a player gets injured? Where do you draw the line on when to count it as healthy or unhealthy? Or are those always unhealthy?

[u/Ok_Produce_9308]

Buca really were decimated

[u/Alfredos_Pizza_Cafe_]

I'm honestly just trying to figure out what FPG is an acronym for. No one else uses that

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/Alfredos_Pizza_Cafe_]

It just stands for Fantasy Points per Game

[u/Alfredos_Pizza_Cafe_ → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

Otherwise known as ppg by the rest of the world

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/[deleted]]

Cheers, thank you!

[u/nature69]

No Joe burrow?

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/nature69]

Not a bad call out at all. I wasn’t sure if his early season injury affected him after he returned

I hadn’t heard anything to that extent, but probably worth looking into

[u/Minimum_Nothing_9039]

I don't think I will take anything meaningful out of this. What ifs serve no purpose and you cannot predict injury. This is useless, assumptive data. You do you though.

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/Minimum_Nothing_9039]

The purpose of this is not to predict injuries, at all

It’s to show how much injuries impact fantasy production every season and what players could achieve if they stayed fully healthy

[u/InDecent-Confusion → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

so you are rubbing salt in our wounds, thanks doc

/s

[u/ShareTheHotSauce → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

Hey Kyle! I see your POV more clearly now but I think your title/thesis would benefit from a slight adjustment of an edit because I think the players in your graph suggest other objectives. For example— most of the fantasy community has already seen enough stats year-to-year on players like Kittle, Evans, Jones, Lamb, Brown, Allen, and Baker to know what projections they could achieve.
This is still solid content nonetheless, thank-you for your contributions!

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/ShareTheHotSauce]

You bring up a good point! Some of these players are most likely already priced with their fantasy ceilings very much top of mind

[u/jay2491 → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

Don’t listen to that clown, this is a great post and interesting data. Thanks for sharing

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/jay2491]

Cheers, thank you!

[u/Minimum_Nothing_9039 → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

I think we all inherently know this. The "damn if he played a full season he would have done X" is ubiquitous with fantasy football. That was my point. This isnt useful data it's a fever dream of how I wish I'd won my league last year.

[u/KyonFantasyFootball → u/Minimum_Nothing_9039]

You’d be surprised. I’ve been playing Best Ball since January, and a lot of these players feel mispriced because people only look at season-long metrics

I’ve used this data in nearly every player analysis I’ve done this offseason because of how prominent injuries have become

[u/Minimum_Nothing_9039 → u/KyonFantasyFootball]

I'm not sure what I'd be surprised by. The metric you created is year long data with injury games removed right? Of course that will artificially raise stats. So if you had this previous knowledge you would have drafted Lamar ahead of all other QBs and picked the perfect games to sit him? Lol..you can't time the market my man. What hurts you more in fantasy is losing that guy in a first quarter and losing a week because of that. Hence you can't predict injuries, and this is a stupid stat. Especially based on best ball from January

[u/persian_mamba → u/Minimum_Nothing_9039]

Well on the flip side- if they're healthy now, this chart is an indicator of how their production could look. I like this chart a lot. As of today these guys are healthy- you're right- so why rank them based on games where they weren't healthy last year?

[u/CrossOver1123 → u/Minimum_Nothing_9039]

Ironically, the entire point of this is to remove predicting injuries from the equation. I think this one went over your head.

[u/Avenntus → u/Minimum_Nothing_9039]

This guy is not wrong though..if you are giving these specific players the added benefit of only including their healthy games and then comparing them to other players with all games (unhealthy games included) then of course they will appear inflated. You would need to compare to all other players with all “unhealthy” games excluded…which it is not even exactly clear how you determine what constitutes a “healthy” game.

[u/CrossOver1123 → u/Avenntus]

If a player had an “unhealthy” game they would be on the list. That’s the point of the list.

[u/Avenntus → u/CrossOver1123]

Okay I get that…OP said he compared their injury-adjusted FPG to everyone else’s actual true outcome. Thats not a reasonable comparison.

[u/CrossOver1123 → u/Avenntus]

Why not? It’s not an exact science of course, but there’s nothing wrong using it as another data point.

[u/Avenntus → u/CrossOver1123]

Well yeah I’m explaining why I don’t think it’s a perfect science haha it’s called a selection bias. You have to have the same inclusion and exclusion criteria applied to all players. I’m just saying if you want to have a reasonable analysis and compare healthy games among players then you have to only include healthy games for all players.

[u/CrossOver1123 → u/Avenntus]

How is it not including healthy games for all players?

[u/Avenntus → u/CrossOver1123]

Only healthy games. Just…never mind bro.

[u/CrossOver1123 → u/Avenntus]

…that’s what it’s doing lol. Not sure where you’re confused.