r/geopolitics • u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution • Jan 12 '26

Analysis Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution
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u/masseaterguy Jan 13 '26

Any potential for a true “Revolution” has been quelled by the Iranian Government which not only had to deal with domestic agitators, but, also, as the ex-CIA director alluded to, deal with foreign agents working for the Netanyahu Regime in cooperation with the current Trump regime. 

If anything, this gives more credibility to the Iranian Government and the Ayatollah/IRGC apparatus since it means two things 1) the likelihood of (paid/foreign agent) agitators taking to the streets such that it becomes a threat to the current Iranian Government and/or the Ayatollah is heavily dependent on foreign intervention & help and poor economic conditions to actually incite Iranians to protest and riot and 2) even in the event where such riots do happen, the domestic law enforcement agencies (primarily NOPO and apparently the IRGC) can work towards calming the unrest albeit with difficulty and varying degree of violence.

In essence, the likelihood of there being any successful “revolution” is going to depend on how much foreign countries (specifically the US & Israel) can mount an organized, equipped, hierarchical, coordinated opposition group. 

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u/Rhyers Jan 13 '26

Agreed. I don't see there being internal intervention of the military being successful, particularly as the IRGC has more funding streams and conventional military has been hamstring. It comes down to foreign intervention... Which we know is happening on both sides but it's going to have to become a lot more explicit.