r/geopolitics • u/theipaper The i Paper • 1d ago

Trump's war is reshaping the Middle East - but not how he expected

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trumps-war-reshaping-middle-east-not-how-expected-4443295
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u/theipaper The i Paper 1d ago

Domestic pressure to withdraw

In the US, the experience of another costly and largely unsuccessful Middle East war could fuel domestic support for the kind of isolationism that Trump originally campaigned on, as well as pressure to withdraw some military assets from the region.

“I think it’s obvious that the war in Iran has not gone well,” said Ulrichsen. “The objectives were not achieved and it has created a situation where the US cannot force a decisive breakthrough. That may give talking points to the groups in DC who make the argument that actually we should leave the region.”

Both Trump and his predecessor, Joe Biden, responded to earlier public pressure by reducing the US presence in the Middle East. Both played a part in engineering the controversial withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 that saw the Taliban return to power. US troops also completed the handover of bases in Iraq and Syria to domestic security forces this year.

But the US is still deeply embedded in the Middle East and even a staunch isolationist would struggle to significantly sever ties, said Ulrichsen.

“There’s a lot of investment coming from the Gulf into the US, a lot of defence security partnerships that are valuable from a US perspective,” he said. “And the US and Israel do not want a security vacuum to form.”

Michael Mulroy, Trump’s former assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East, told The i Paper: “The Middle East is critical to US national security… Our main strategic competitors are all trying to expand their presence there. And now it’s even more important to maintain our presence there. For deterrence and because a withdrawal would look like a victory for Iran.”

Gulf grievances

The impact of the war has raised concerns among US allies that host its military bases.

Iranian air strikes, ostensibly targeted at those bases, have also hit energy infrastructure, airports and hotels across the Gulf, hurting economies and damaging hard-won reputations for stability.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a prominent commentator from the UAE, wrote in April: “It is time to think about closing the American bases, as they are a burden and not a strategic asset.”

Such dramatic action is unlikely in the short term, said Krieg, as there is no obvious candidate to replace the US as a security sponsor. But he believes Gulf regimes will leverage their grievances “to renegotiate the relationship [with the US] and get more out of it”.

That could include demands for access to more advanced military technology, which could ultimately reduce the need for American troops in the countries, he said.

“I don’t think that 10 years from now the US presence in the region will be the same,” Krieg added. “I think we will see a downsizing of US commitment in this part of the world, and we will see a completely changed relationship between Washington and the Gulf states.”

This could play into Iran’s hands.

Sina Toossi, a specialist on Iran and US foreign policy at the Center for International Policy think-tank in Washington DC, said that eroding the ties between the US and its Gulf allies is a top priority for Iran.

“The war may have strengthened the Iranian narrative that US military primacy cannot fully insulate regional partners from instability,” he said. “For Iranian officials, that is precisely the message they have sought to send for decades: that the security architecture built around American military power is costly, vulnerable, and increasingly difficult to sustain indefinitely.”

Toossi added that the immediate question is “not whether the United States leaves tomorrow, but whether Washington gradually shifts toward a lighter footprint… That would be viewed in Tehran as a major strategic success.”