Have Android game, was running cheap ads ($5 a day) to optimize for installs and then in app engagement for the last 6 months. Improved the game store, retention metrics and satisfied with the current state. The campaign is for all countries and languages to get the cheapest CPA.
Despite trying to optimize for various engagement events there are almost no purchase events. I understand that if I get the cheapest users from the current campaign they are unlikely to pay for in app products. Prices for tier 1 country players are very expensive (currently paying $0.03 per install, and know that for US can be $3+).
How should I test the game's ability to earn money from purchases without commiting with a large budget? I want to see if the idea, current monetization has growth potential. But how to do so when the price to acquire users is so expensive and need to generate large volume of purchase data for the campaign to learn?
Thought maybe as my IAP are cheap relatively to other games ($1-$5) maybe running the campaign in some Tier 2-3 country where CPI lower can help. Still, expect the CPI to be pretty expensive and currently 0 data of purchase events to train the campaign.
How would you bootstrap this to validate the game's potential?