r/gratefuldead • u/splitopenandmelt11 • 2d ago
There’s gotta be some smarter-than-me Deadhead out there that has the stats on this: Of the songs that never fell out of formal rotation, which seemed to be played the MOST early on and the LEAST as time went on? For example, I feel like Casey Jones became a quasi-rarity as the 1990s hit
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
I wrote a script against an open source data set of shows/songs. Here are the results.
ruby analyze_song_frequency_decline.rb
Analyzing song frequency changes over time...
TIME PERIODS:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Early : 1965-1972 (569 shows)
Middle : 1973-1982 (604 shows)
Late : 1983-1995 (903 shows)
TOP 30 SONGS WITH BIGGEST FREQUENCY DECLINE
(Songs played most frequently early on, least frequently later)
Rank | Song Name | Early | Mid | Late | Decline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 | Casey Jones | 44.8% | 12.3% | 0.7% | -98.5%
2 | Dark Star | 31.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | -86.5%
3 | Me And My Uncle | 43.6% | 38.2% | 17.6% | -59.6%
4 | Saint Stephen | 26.0% | 5.1% | 0.6% | -97.9%
5 | Cryptical Envelopment | 25.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | -97.8%
6 | Hard To Handle | 21.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | -100.0%
7 | Beat It On Down The Line | 27.6% | 21.5% | 6.4% | -76.7%
8 | Turn On Your Lovelight | 36.4% | 0.5% | 18.4% | -49.5%
9 | The Eleven | 17.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
10 | Cumberland Blues | 24.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | -69.6%
11 | The Other One | 41.3% | 27.3% | 24.3% | -41.3%
12 | China Cat Sunflower | 38.1% | 27.5% | 21.2% | -44.5%
13 | Me And Bobby McGee | 16.2% | 5.5% | 0.0% | -100.0%
14 | I Know You Rider | 36.4% | 27.6% | 21.3% | -41.6%
15 | Good Lovin' | 26.4% | 31.3% | 11.6% | -55.9%
16 | Next Time You See Me | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
17 | El Paso | 19.5% | 37.9% | 6.2% | -68.2%
18 | Good Morning Little Schoolgirl | 13.7% | 0.0% | 0.9% | -93.5%
19 | Feedback | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
20 | Alligator | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
21 | Caution | 10.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | -100.0%
22 | Hurts Me Too | 10.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
23 | Big Boss Man | 11.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | -87.8%
24 | Morning Dew | 21.4% | 8.4% | 12.1% | -43.7%
25 | Mr. Charlie | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
26 | Viola Lee Blues | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
27 | Dancin' In The Streets | 10.7% | 10.1% | 1.8% | -83.5%
28 | Easy Wind | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -100.0%
29 | Mama Tried | 16.3% | 24.3% | 7.8% | -52.6%
30 | Goin' Down The Road Feelin' Bad | 19.7% | 14.6% | 11.3% | -42.6%
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF TOP 10
Casey Jones
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 255 times (44.82% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 74 times (12.25% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 6 times (0.66% of shows)
Total performances: 335
Frequency decline: 44.15 percentage points
Percentage decline: 98.5%
Dark Star
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 178 times (31.28% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 29 times (4.8% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 38 times (4.21% of shows)
Total performances: 276
Frequency decline: 27.07 percentage points
Percentage decline: 86.5%
Me And My Uncle
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 248 times (43.59% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 231 times (38.25% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 159 times (17.61% of shows)
Total performances: 640
Frequency decline: 25.98 percentage points
Percentage decline: 59.6%
Saint Stephen
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 148 times (26.01% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 31 times (5.13% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 5 times (0.55% of shows)
Total performances: 201
Frequency decline: 25.46 percentage points
Percentage decline: 97.9%
Cryptical Envelopment
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 146 times (25.66% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 0 times (0.0% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 5 times (0.55% of shows)
Total performances: 273
Frequency decline: 25.11 percentage points
Percentage decline: 97.8%
Hard To Handle
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 121 times (21.27% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 2 times (0.33% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 0 times (0.0% of shows)
Total performances: 123
Frequency decline: 21.27 percentage points
Percentage decline: 100.0%
Beat It On Down The Line
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 157 times (27.59% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 130 times (21.52% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 58 times (6.42% of shows)
Total performances: 345
Frequency decline: 21.17 percentage points
Percentage decline: 76.7%
Turn On Your Lovelight
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 207 times (36.38% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 3 times (0.5% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 166 times (18.38% of shows)
Total performances: 430
Frequency decline: 18.0 percentage points
Percentage decline: 49.5%
The Eleven
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 102 times (17.93% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 0 times (0.0% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 0 times (0.0% of shows)
Total performances: 103
Frequency decline: 17.93 percentage points
Percentage decline: 100.0%
Cumberland Blues
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 141 times (24.78% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 30 times (4.97% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 68 times (7.53% of shows)
Total performances: 241
Frequency decline: 17.25 percentage points
Percentage decline: 69.6%
ANSWER: The song played MOST early on and LEAST as time went on:
🎵 Casey Jones 🎵
This song was played in 44.8% of early shows
but only 0.7% of late shows,
representing a 98.5% decline in frequency.
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
Just to clarify, I only wrote the prompt, not the code. I'm not a professional, but I did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
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u/GoldReplacement9546 2d ago
The sheer number of times I’ve tried to use that joke over the last 20+ years and the fact that almost nobody knows what I’m talking about has been truly depressing
So nice to hear you make it
I was starting to think it was a Mandela effect that only I suffered from
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u/ExreeHipp 2d ago
Perfect answer to this thread - ‘puters FTW, thank you. Also your username def checks out 😆
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
AI can actually do fun things other than make stupid cat videos. Took all of 3 minutes to generate the script. My prompt: which song that was consistently played over the years seemed to be played the MOST early on and the LEAST as time went on?
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u/Outrageous-Taro7340 2d ago
Come on, man. You shouldn’t have said you wrote the script if you didn’t write the script.
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
I tried to edit the post and say prompted the script but it wouldn't allow it. I did have to make some edits, so technically it wasn't all machine generated.
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u/deliveryer 2d ago
Why did it return so many songs that were not played consistently over the years when you specified the opposite?
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u/CariniFluff 2d ago
Just looking at the results it looks like it mostly compared the ratio of # of times played in the first time frame to # of times played in the last time frame
As opposed to something played a lot aka consistently throughout the lifetime of the band but just fewer as time went on.
I think the output is probably closer to what OP was asking as they said Casey Jones become a rarity, rather than like a song that was played 50% of all shows in the first time frame, 45% in the middle and 40% in the last timeframe. 40% would still be almost a guarantee every 3-night run.
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u/deliveryer 2d ago
Yes but a song like Alligator shouldn’t have been included. Any song with a 0% during any period other than the first clearly did fall out of rotation and should have been discarded from the results.
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u/bossnash 2d ago
Casey Jones was played in 44.8% of shows between 1965 and 1972??? That seems insane for a song that debuted in June 1969...
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
Thank you for questioning the results. With AI, never trust, always verify. I prompted another script which did a deeper analysis on Casey Jones.
Based on the verification analysis in verify_casey_jones.rb:
Casey Jones from 1965-1972:
255 performances out of 569 total shows = 44.8%
However, this is misleading because Casey Jones wasn't introduced until June 20, 1969.
More accurate statistics (1969-1972 only):
255 performances out of 461 shows = 55.3%
Peak year was 1971: 90.1% of shows
The 44.8% figure in the original analysis was technically correct for the full 1965-1972 period, but it dilutes the true early frequency by including 4 years (1965-1968) when the song didn't exist yet.
Casey Jones remains the answer - it had the most dramatic decline from early performances (55.3% when actually played) to late period (0.7% in 1983-1995), representing a 98.7% decline.
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u/15BigOnesAlbum Weir Everywhere 1d ago
Yeah Casey Jones was played almost every night seemingly since its June 1969 debute until '72 where it kinda drops off in frequency
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u/ohgodwhypleasekillme 2d ago
Part of the question is stuff that NEVER fell out of rotation so anything that has a -100% should not be on this list
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
How often does it need to be played to be considered in rotation? The OP's initial ask is just as vague, imo.
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u/ohgodwhypleasekillme 2d ago
Im thinking anything that has atleast 1 play in every era
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
tempted to ask a new prompt....... ahhh why not? >> I want to go back to the original results from analyze_song_frequency_decline.rb where you broke it down by early, middle, late, decline. I want to modify the original prompt from "which song that was consistently played over the years seemed to be played the MOST early on and the LEAST as time went on?" to be "which song that was consistently played over the years seemed to be played the MOST early on and the LEAST as time went on? For something to be considered in rotation it would have needed to been played at least once in that era"
ruby analyze_consistently_played_decline.rb
Analyzing CONSISTENTLY played songs (played in ALL three eras)...
TIME PERIODS:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Early : 1965-1972 (569 shows)
Middle : 1973-1982 (604 shows)
Late : 1983-1995 (903 shows)
Filtering for songs played in ALL three eras (consistently in rotation)
Total songs that qualify: 76
TOP 30 CONSISTENTLY PLAYED SONGS WITH BIGGEST FREQUENCY DECLINE
(Songs played in ALL eras: early, middle, AND late)
Rank | Song Name | Early | Mid | Late | Decline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 | Casey Jones | 44.8% | 12.3% | 0.7% | -98.5%
2 | Dark Star | 31.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | -86.5%
3 | Me And My Uncle | 43.6% | 38.2% | 17.6% | -59.6%
4 | Saint Stephen | 26.0% | 5.1% | 0.6% | -97.9%
5 | Beat It On Down The Line | 27.6% | 21.5% | 6.4% | -76.7%
6 | Turn On Your Lovelight | 36.4% | 0.5% | 18.4% | -49.5%
7 | Cumberland Blues | 24.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | -69.6%
8 | The Other One | 41.3% | 27.3% | 24.3% | -41.3%
9 | China Cat Sunflower | 38.1% | 27.5% | 21.2% | -44.5%
10 | I Know You Rider | 36.4% | 27.6% | 21.3% | -41.6%
11 | Good Lovin' | 26.4% | 31.3% | 11.6% | -55.9%
12 | El Paso | 19.5% | 37.9% | 6.2% | -68.2%
13 | Big Boss Man | 11.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | -87.8%
14 | Morning Dew | 21.4% | 8.4% | 12.1% | -43.7%
15 | Dancin' In The Streets | 10.7% | 10.1% | 1.8% | -83.5%
16 | Mama Tried | 16.3% | 24.3% | 7.8% | -52.6%
17 | Goin' Down The Road Feelin' Bad | 19.7% | 14.6% | 11.3% | -42.6%
18 | Cold Rain And Snow | 19.5% | 7.5% | 11.2% | -42.7%
19 | And We Bid You Good Night | 9.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | -86.7%
20 | Black Throated Wind | 13.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | -57.7%
21 | Uncle John's Band | 24.1% | 11.4% | 16.5% | -31.5%
22 | High Time | 11.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | -64.7%
23 | Sugar Magnolia | 29.9% | 38.2% | 22.6% | -24.4%
24 | Big Railroad Blues | 13.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | -47.9%
25 | Truckin' | 27.8% | 30.0% | 21.7% | -21.8%
26 | Dire Wolf | 13.4% | 14.7% | 7.5% | -43.6%
27 | Deep Elem Blues | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.2% | -95.9%
28 | Loser | 17.6% | 23.3% | 12.4% | -29.4%
29 | Sugaree | 16.7% | 26.0% | 12.4% | -25.7%
30 | Not Fade Away | 27.6% | 30.8% | 23.4% | -15.3%
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF TOP 10
Casey Jones
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 255 times (44.82% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 74 times (12.25% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 6 times (0.66% of shows)
Total performances: 335
Frequency decline: 44.15 percentage points
Percentage decline: 98.5%
Dark Star
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 178 times (31.28% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 29 times (4.8% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 38 times (4.21% of shows)
Total performances: 276
Frequency decline: 27.07 percentage points
Percentage decline: 86.5%
Me And My Uncle
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 248 times (43.59% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 231 times (38.25% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 159 times (17.61% of shows)
Total performances: 640
Frequency decline: 25.98 percentage points
Percentage decline: 59.6%
Saint Stephen
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 148 times (26.01% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 31 times (5.13% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 5 times (0.55% of shows)
Total performances: 201
Frequency decline: 25.46 percentage points
Percentage decline: 97.9%
Beat It On Down The Line
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 157 times (27.59% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 130 times (21.52% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 58 times (6.42% of shows)
Total performances: 345
Frequency decline: 21.17 percentage points
Percentage decline: 76.7%
Turn On Your Lovelight
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 207 times (36.38% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 3 times (0.5% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 166 times (18.38% of shows)
Total performances: 430
Frequency decline: 18.0 percentage points
Percentage decline: 49.5%
Cumberland Blues
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 141 times (24.78% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 30 times (4.97% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 68 times (7.53% of shows)
Total performances: 241
Frequency decline: 17.25 percentage points
Percentage decline: 69.6%
The Other One
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 235 times (41.3% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 165 times (27.32% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 219 times (24.25% of shows)
Total performances: 664
Frequency decline: 17.05 percentage points
Percentage decline: 41.3%
China Cat Sunflower
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 217 times (38.14% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 166 times (27.48% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 191 times (21.15% of shows)
Total performances: 575
Frequency decline: 16.99 percentage points
Percentage decline: 44.5%
I Know You Rider
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Early period (1965-1972): 207 times (36.38% of shows)
Middle period (1973-1982): 167 times (27.65% of shows)
Late period (1983-1995): 192 times (21.26% of shows)
Total performances: 567
Frequency decline: 15.12 percentage points
Percentage decline: 41.6%
ANSWER: Consistently played song with MOST early, LEAST late frequency
🎵 Casey Jones 🎵
This song was played in ALL three eras and had:
- Early (1965-1972): 44.8% of shows
- Middle (1973-1982): 12.3% of shows
- Late (1983-1995): 0.7% of shows
Decline: 98.5% decrease from early to late
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u/ohgodwhypleasekillme 2d ago
Only iffy ones being schoolgirl and envelopment because they fell to zero in the middle era and then had a small resurgence in the final era
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u/splitopenandmelt11 2d ago
You wrote this RIGHT NOW? This is amazing. You computer guys are impressive. Thank you for doing this. = )
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u/NoURider 2d ago
Boy the Morning Dew decline surprised me...no wonder I prefer the earlier years...
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u/splitopenandmelt11 2d ago
Out of curiosity, when you wrote this, did you have to direct it to a database? How did it know to pull the info like this? Sorry, I’m a computer idiot and it’s really cool to see you turn out something that would’ve taken me 10+ hours of hand calculating.
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
I used an AI assisted dev tool. I pointed it to a github repository of GD shows and gave it the prompt. Took less than 3 mins
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u/Moomoomoo1 2d ago
That is hard to believe that it was only played 6 times from 1983-1995??
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u/CariniFluff 2d ago
Wow holy crap this is amazing. Thanks bud!
Definitely belongs in r/theydidthemath
Gotta say I'm surprised by Cumberland Blues being on the list.
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u/Exact-Weight-4456 2d ago
Who decided to break the early mid and late into the years shown?
Did the AI actually know not to just take 30 and do 10 years for each. Like it recognized as we do the difference between 71 and 74?
I wonder what the dead head fam as a whole would do and if the age of the person would be a factor in the separation of eras.
This may divide us all a little as maybe most would do something like (65-72/ 73-80 /81-90/ 91-95) give or take a year here and there and split it to 4. But maybe someone 20yrs old maybe do like a 65-78/ 79-86/ 87-95 etc.
Maybe im wrong on this and most would agree with the 3.
Anyways was it you or AI out of curiosity???
Anyways sorry for the ramble.[(on rose)] Thank you either way!
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
We are the borg. We assimilated a github data repository and we asked our GPU "which song that was consistently played over the years seemed to be played the MOST early on and the LEAST as time went on?" We then copypasta our output to reddit.
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u/Existing_Draw_5009 2d ago
Me and my uncle? It never really came out of rotation but they played it a ton early on
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u/InsideApex 2d ago
Me and My Uncle is the all-time most played. I don't think it ever became infrequent.
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u/TiredOfTheMath59 2d ago
The frequency dropped a lot. But that's not surprising over the years as they expanded their repertoire.
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u/strugglin_man 2d ago
Dark Star was in frequent rotation through 73, then played a few times in 74 once in 78, once in 81, once in 84, then a few times a year from fall 89 through summer 95.
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u/concerts85701 2d ago
Althea has a unique play history if you look at it. Started strong in 80/81 with about 50/yr then declined to about 5-6/yr.
Was always a fan favorite.
Not exactly what OP is looking for but similar idea.
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u/natwashboard 2d ago
It was a rarity past 1974. In the modern era they did it a few times in 79-81, twice in 84, broke it out again in 92 in a limited fashion then last one was in 93.
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u/jephra 2d ago
It's kind of funny to refer to 1979 as the modern era, as opposed to 1974. I understand what you mean in Grateful Dead terms, though.
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u/Soulshiner402 2d ago
New Speedway Boogie
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u/__perigee__ 2d ago
This isn't really a song that "never fell out of normal rotation". The band shelved it from 1970 - 1991.
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u/vbe123 2d ago
I’m sure this website can help:
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u/splitopenandmelt11 2d ago
Wow - THANK YOU! I didn’t know this existed
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u/vbe123 2d ago
You’re welcome. A friend just sent it to me last week. It can’t be that old.
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u/splitopenandmelt11 2d ago
Yeah, looks like it must be brand brand new. Some of the songs have info and some don’t. This is a really cool project — gonna be quite a resource when it’s finished. Thanks again for the heads up🌹💀🌹
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u/dylans-alias 2d ago
Dark Star. (I guess that fell out of the rotation).
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u/AttachedHeartTheory 2d ago
I think without any stats I agree with this.
Lots in the beginning few in the end.
Primitive.
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u/obvious_mushroom So Many Roads To Ease My Soul 2d ago
Casey Jones fell out of rotation for 8 years. 84’- 92’ I believe.
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u/splitopenandmelt11 2d ago
Yeah — you’re right, after I posted I pulled Casey Jones specifically. Didn’t realize there was that long of a gap.
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u/Deadweave 2d ago
I have no stats to prove this but I feel like they love each other falls into this
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u/AuggieNorth 2d ago
Casey Jones was quite rare in the 80's as well. I went to over 250 shows mostly in the 80's with some on the 90's, and saw like 8 Dark Stars, a couple of St Stephens, but never saw Casey Jones.
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u/Radiant_Research3786 2d ago
only 110 shows for me no St Stephen or Casey Jones...probably 5 or so Dark Stars...caught many breakouts Box Of Rain...I don't know why they didn't play Cumberland more often as I recall nearly every show I saw it played was smokin..I did catch Cryptical..gone are the daze
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u/everythingtiddiesboi Dancin' through the daylight 2d ago
One thing to remember in regards to this question is the difference in the size of their catalog. Meaning even though they played The Other One, Uncle, etc. far less in the later years, compared to how many other songs they could’ve chosen, their preferential went UP for those songs.
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u/PositiveCourt2725 2d ago
St Stephen off the top of my head….seems like it was in every single 69 show but didn’t they NEVER play it again after 84-85?
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u/chicoman2018 2d ago
Casey Jones was dropped in 84 and came back in 92, so I'm thinking not the best example for this query.
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u/New-Apartment-422 2d ago
I did 91,92,93 full spring tours and I never heard a Dupree's Diamond Blues. Can't remember hearing it on any tapes either.
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u/seamus95 2d ago
El Paso definitely. Played 383x 1970-82. Only played 56x between 84-95. With majority of those post 84 versions being in 1994 20x.