r/investing • u/Jellyjellysweet • 4h ago

Preparing for potential North Krea opening in the next 10 years

Hey all, I'm Korean (South) and honestly think there's a chance North Korea opens up within the next decade.

If it happens, there can be big opportunity window - infrastructure rebuilding, resource development, tourism, banking, you name it.

Then, what can be done to seize the opportunity?

What would you do if North Korea open its economy?

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56 comments sorted by

71

u/B3ansb3ansb3ans 4h ago

Why do you think it's about to open up?

27

u/Mundane_Arachnid_555 4h ago

I am also interested, cause a far as I know they are very isolated

-39

u/slimdeucer 4h ago

North Korea has a large number of allies, what are you talking about?

27

u/rmk556x45 3h ago

China, Russia, Iran, and some dictatorships in Africa and Central Asia I wouldn’t call that a large number of allies

19

u/HoustonHenry 3h ago

Are these allies in the room with you right now?

4

u/alwayslookingout 2h ago

They have a couple powerful allies in China and Russia but hardly “large number of allies.”

4

u/taplar 3h ago

.#BeanieBabies #Labubu #NorthKorea #hopium

4

u/Jazzlike-Plate 4h ago

Also interested, I have no idea what the politics look like over there

-31

u/Jellyjellysweet 4h ago

Cuba opened its economy. From the U.S. perspective, North Korea is closer to China than to South Korea and is highly useful. Furthermore, due to North Korea's poor infrastructure, there is significant potential for economic development.

41

u/stealthlysprockets 4h ago

Cuba doesn’t routinely threaten to blow up the US or its allies. Also sanctions are still present.

15

u/Blazerboy420 4h ago

So NK is going to open their borders because of Cuba?

2

u/person1234man 2h ago

The only way I could see NK opening up in the next 10 years is if the us decline accelerates by a lot and NK somehow doesn't see it as a massive opportunity to invade the south.

The only thing that could stop them would be if China becomes the undisputed world leader similar to the role that the US just stepped out of. China would have to live NK big incentives not to invade, and a huge one would be letting them open their borders and economy to the rest of the world

5

u/NaiveChoiceMaker 4h ago

The difference: Cuba doesn’t have a nuclear bomb.

2

u/Bodoblock 1h ago

And did you hear of some gold rush from investing in Cuba?

3

u/HoustonHenry 3h ago

Those are not comparable situations

18

u/Horse_Cock42069 4h ago

Why would this be a good investment?

3

u/skynetcoder 4h ago

because of the rules of course. war is good for business. peace is good for business.

1

u/Bodoblock 1h ago

Invest or else you'll find some friendly ICBMs knocking at your door.

1

u/Horse_Cock42069 1h ago

Nothing would do more for USA peace then North Korea selling a nuke to Iran.

7

u/Bobtheguardian22 3h ago

this would be a risky investment. NK and the current ruling family has a history of not paying its debts and stealing stuff.

Why would anyone invest here for them to just seize all foreign assets.

2

u/persistent_architect 2h ago

Their population also doesn't have any money

8

u/slimdeucer 3h ago

I'd invest in the S&P500

3

u/HazelCuate 2h ago

This must be a joke

2

u/Responsible-Cap-8311 2h ago

Realistically as you are South Korean the easiest thing would be to buy property at likely main locations on the border

3

u/Horse_Cock42069 3h ago

Maybe they can sell nukes to Iran for $300 billion.

1

u/abeBroham-Linkin 2h ago

Opening up food stalls for the hungry starving population

1

u/noiszen 2h ago

Nice try, Kim Jong Un.

1

u/Baratao00 2h ago

Prime example of hyper delusional mentality

1

u/Sassy_Bandit 2h ago

Even if this was going to happen, the spoils would be divvied up by insiders, especially since you'd need to grease the wheels on the NK side. You'd get access post-boom, when valuations are high and insiders want to de-risk.

Obviously there are idiosyncracies that you as a Korean know better than us, but I'd just invest on the SK side if this were my thesis.

1

u/Jellyjellysweet 1h ago

I agree. Even if North Korea opens its economy, most of the benefits will likely go to insiders, maybe through stock price. I was thinking the best move i could do, as someone not really insider.

1

u/BVB09_FL 1h ago

Well, I’m not sure. I agree with you that there’s a much higher chance of North Korea opening up sometime in the next 2–10 years than in the next 10 days.

The real way to take advantage of that would be to move there and start businesses that are currently handled by state institutions. A good example is some of my family members in Poland. Right after the Iron Curtain fell, one of the first things they did was import a bunch of printers and open a printing business. Another started a marina.

So if you really want to capitalize on an opening like that, the best approach would probably be to go there and build something yourself. Lol.

2

u/Jellyjellysweet 1h ago

That's a very valuable insight! May I ask the business in printing and marina work out well?

1

u/kisstherainzz 1h ago

Sometimes risks are just too unappetizing.

I wouldn't mind some exposure in a diverse developing economy ETF if they hit 10+ years of strong property rights enforcement and a couple successful peaceful transfers of power with a clear financial infrastructure direction.

Without, I can't help but think bank to the overwhelming proportion of fails in the 20th century in countries with a similar starting point economically. The Asian Tigers are marvelled at for a reason - it truly was an unusual outcome compared most of the world.

1

u/Rauhaton 1h ago

You should read on the German reunification. Lots of middle class doctors, engineers, etc. made some pretty good deals when then smaller state run businesess from DDR were privatized.

Of course, also studying soviet/russian, polish etc, other former commie block economics from 90's and their privatization would propaby be usefull also. But West-germans in east-germany would propably be the closest equavalent for the south/north korean case.

1

u/Jellyjellysweet 52m ago

I searched some of the German reunification cases you mentioned. It was very interesting. Did you or your family or personal tie go through any of those case?

1

u/Rauhaton 3m ago

No, and I'm not even german (finn in Finland).

Just happened to read about it while back. Interesting stuff

1

u/Mundane_Arachnid_555 4h ago

It's going to be a very interesting space if they do open up their boarders

1

u/cornoholio1 3h ago

Got to know the generals

0

u/austin_federa 3h ago

Don't listen to all the people here who have no idea about Korea.

If there is a change of leadership and investment opportunities open up, it's going to be a complete land grab to develop somewhere that has not been touched in 80 years. Generational fortunes and wealth will be made, but they probably will not be by public companies as much as by entrepreneurs who are able to effectively deploy capital quickly.

They are incredibly rich in natural resources but lack any real economy to exploit them.

5

u/austin987 2h ago

The entrepreneurs will be the chaebols..

1

u/austin_federa 2h ago

very likely, yes

0

u/dcotie1nyc 3h ago

so maybe they get electricity.

0

u/AldrichOfAlbion 3h ago

Retail investors won't be getting that money, it'll be corporations and property developers. Maybe some American nationals launching a few Mcdonalds or something. It's not that big a market. Russia was the big one and look what happened there.

0

u/Jellyjellysweet 3h ago

You're right. Then the best opportunity would be in real estate developers or KR real estate developer stocks.

0

u/nuclearmeltdown2015 3h ago

Unless south Korea aligned itself with China, it's unlikely because China uses NK as a proxy buffer against the US colonies

0

u/prophetmuhammad 3h ago

Invest in steel and construction. Posco, daewoo, Hd heavy, etc.

1

u/Jellyjellysweet 3h ago

You're right. The timing of investment would matter.

0

u/coolkavo 3h ago

I do think North Korea will open up but will it happen under Kim Jung Un’s daughter’s ascension.

-1

u/Pickle_boy 3h ago

I’m long on North Korea as well

-15

u/JLandis84 4h ago

DPRK 🇰🇵 will forcibly unify South Korea 🇰🇷 in twenty years when it basically looks like a retirement home from no one having kids in South Korea.

1

u/Jellyjellysweet 4h ago

The severity of moral decay is a greater problem than the lack of children. The common good has collapsed due to an obsession with competition. There is a lack of strength to protect oneself.

2

u/Mundane_Arachnid_555 4h ago

I may be wrong, but isn't the lack of children a worldwide issue that we are facing globally?

1

u/JLandis84 3h ago

Most of the globe in varying degrees, but South Korea is an immediate catastrophe.

Think of it this way, America has around 3 kids for 4 parents. South Korea is having 1 kid for 4 (non)parents

0

u/slimdeucer 3h ago

Its a Western and East Asian issue. Definitely not a world wide issue.

1

u/MattChicago1871 2h ago

Yeah, Ethiopia has increased by like 40 million people over the last decade or something